General Election Constituency Polls

[The Bishop]

Well.

Tbh was always sceptical of confident assertions that these two seats were totally unwinnable for them.

Now do Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central, please.

[jamesdoyle]

Well those are nice to see. My own perceptions have been moving a bit on the opposite direction tbh: from what I've been able to garner from social media, I'm not convinced there are enough troops on the ground to get the message to voters that Greens could win. The DKs mentioned by Graham speak to that. I want to believe...!

[The Bishop]

Though if these polls do nothing else, they will surely assist a "squeeze" message.

[graham]

Jun 21, 2024 11:30:14 GMT cogload said:

Don't Knows were 34%. Before DK's removed the results were-

Grn  23%

Con 15%

Lab  11%

Ref  10%

LD     4%

NV    2%

DK   34%

[The Bishop]

Jun 21, 2024 11:35:28 GMT graham said:

But 44% replied Don't Know

Quite a few of those DK's won't actually vote - others may be unsure of how best to vote tactically (though perhaps less so now)

It would be a category error to assume that they are mostly closet/"shy" Tories.

[graham]

Jun 21, 2024 11:48:34 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 21, 2024 11:35:28 GMT graham said:

But 44% replied Don't Know

Quite a few of those DK's won't actually vote - others may be unsure of how best to vote tactically (though perhaps less so now)

It would be a category error to assume that they are mostly closet/"shy" Tories.

I agree with that - though also worth sayiing that Green support - and to some extent LD support - is 'easy come  easy go.' It tends not to be very firm.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 21, 2024 11:35:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Well.

Tbh was always sceptical of confident assertions that these two seats were totally unwinnable for them.

Now do Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central, please.

These polls were commissioned by the Green party. When they do the same for Bristol Central and show a similarly fantastical swing, I'm sure you'll waste no time pointing that out.

[The Bishop]

But if its a simple VI poll, does who commissioned it make any difference?

If there have been lots of leading questions asked alongside it (as with a certain "pollster" this week) then that would be a different matter.

[YL]

Jun 21, 2024 12:14:29 GMT The Bishop said:

But if its a simple VI poll, does who commissioned it make any difference?

If there have been lots of leading questions asked alongside it (as with a certain "pollster" this week) then that would be a different matter.

There are good reasons to be a little sceptical of internal polls, especially when, as here, all we have is headline figures. Choices may have been made which favour the commissioning party in some way, and without tables it may be hard to know whether that's the case. (See that Portsmouth North poll from a few weeks back, which had a dodgy question order.) And the decision to release the poll may have been influenced by what it said.

[islington]

Jun 21, 2024 12:14:29 GMT The Bishop said:

But if its a simple VI poll, does who commissioned it make any difference?

In theory, no.

However, "in theory there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is".

As an aside, and for the benefit of forum members that share my appreciation of nuggets of this kind, before typing this post I did a quick check for the originator of this well-known observation, which has been variously ascribed to such luminaries as Albert Einstein, Richard Feynmann, or the yet more exalted mind of Yogi Berra. But it seems the priority should go to a relatively obscure American named Benjamin Brewster, who committed it to print, in the exact form I've quoted, back in 1882 when Einstein was a toddler and Feynmann and Berra were as yet unborn.

[YL]

Tables for all of Omnisis's constituency polls (Hartlepool, Gillingham & Rainham, Waveney Valley, North Herefordshire) are available from
omnisis.co.uk/poll-results

The question order in the Green-commissioned ones isn't especially dodgy: they asked a squeeze question, but after the normal one and it is the normal one the figures released are for. I haven't looked for other red flags, though.

[jamesdoyle]

Jun 21, 2024 13:07:55 GMT islington said:

Jun 21, 2024 12:14:29 GMT The Bishop said:

But if its a simple VI poll, does who commissioned it make any difference?

In theory, no.

However, "in theory there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is".

As an aside, and for the benefit of forum members that share my appreciation of nuggets of this kind, before typing this post I did a quick check for the originator of this well-known observation, which has been variously ascribed to such luminaries as Albert Einstein, Richard Feynmann, or the yet more exalted mind of Yogi Berra. But it seems the priority should go to a relatively obscure American named Benjamin Brewster, who committed it to print, in the exact form I've quoted, back in 1882 when Einstein was a toddler and Feynmann and Berra were as yet unborn.

A bit like 'Constants aren't. Variables don't.'

[cogload]

[cogload]

[sinisterdexter]

Hope Sunak wins in Richmond and is forced to serve another 5 years there on the opposition benches 😁

[willpower3]

Jun 23, 2024 17:01:43 GMT sinisterdexter said:

Hope Sunak wins in Richmond and is forced to serve another 5 years there on the opposition benches 😁

Has the Chiltern Hundreds been abolished?

[sinisterdexter]

That would be an admission of complete and utter incompetence and defeat, which would be equally embarrassing for him 🙂

[cogload]

[Tony Otim]

Oops...

[graham]

I am a little cautious re- this poll on the basis that many who declare an intention to 'Vote Labour' still see Corbyn as the Labour candidate.