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Post by andrew111 on Nov 29, 2019 17:40:18 GMT
I am in Mirfield, but Labour can hardly afford to ignore Mirfield where they got 31% in the local elections in 2018, falling to 18% in 2019 (to the benefit of the Greens). And as I say I was far from ignored in the 2017 GE Theres a general rule about not disturbing your enemy. Nationally Labour don't do that well in Mirfield . Better to concentrate on getting the vote out in the safe wards That s fine, you think that. My next door neighbour who has voted Labour all his life except the EU election when he voted LD was asking me what to do this morning.. I am sure Labour got over 30% in Mirfield in the 2017 GE, when they captured so many middle class votes |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2019 17:46:12 GMT
I was delivering postal vote letters all week before the deadline. From Saturday to the following Friday i think i was out every week day night and during the day on weekends
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 29, 2019 17:47:00 GMT
I am in Mirfield, but Labour can hardly afford to ignore Mirfield where they got 31% in the local elections in 2018, falling to 18% in 2019 (to the benefit of the Greens). And as I say I was far from ignored in the 2017 GE Theres a general rule about not disturbing your enemy. Nationally Labour don't do that well in Mirfield . Better to concentrate on getting the vote out in the safe wards In fairness Andrew this is also true. A near maxed out turnout in the Asian wards and you must accept that the rest will look after itself. I am not sure if this is actually the strategy, however. But it could be. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 29, 2019 22:39:04 GMT
Theres a general rule about not disturbing your enemy. Nationally Labour don't do that well in Mirfield . Better to concentrate on getting the vote out in the safe wards In fairness Andrew this is also true. A near maxed out turnout in the Asian wards and you must accept that the rest will look after itself. I am not sure if this is actually the strategy, however. But it could be. Like I say the strategy that worked in 2017 is not the same this time. In that money has not been spent this time. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 30, 2019 16:15:36 GMT
We were being told that Labour had "given up" on W/L earlier on in the campaign, so that is modestly encouraging. Why were they giving up? It was a claim made by one of the "Pol Profs" who seem to spend every waking moment online (Glen O'Hara I think) |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2019 16:39:34 GMT
This is it
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 7, 2019 18:29:26 GMT
From a fortnight ago so pinch of salt.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 9, 2019 21:46:16 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 10, 2019 11:54:56 GMT
Not much suggestion of a London Remainer backlash in those polls, or at least not to the extent that some have been predicting.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 10, 2019 12:17:02 GMT
If the Tories are holding up pretty much completely in ultra remain parts of London then they are not surging in Brexit voting North/Midlands (have to make the national numbers ultimately add up). Either means that the constituency polls are wrong or we are not heading for the realignment that many are predicting. Judging by past history, i would be more sceptical of the constituency polls.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 10, 2019 12:31:13 GMT
If the Tories are holding up pretty much completely in ultra remain parts of London then they are not surging in Brexit voting North/Midlands (have to make the national numbers ultimately add up). Either means that the constituency polls are wrong or we are not heading for the realignment that many are predicting. Judging by past history, i would be more sceptical of the constituency polls. Quite a few of the constituency polls outside London (such as Great Grimsby and Wrexham) have been worse for Labour/better for the Tories than what the national polls are suggesting. But, as you say, constituency polls should have some significant amount of salt applied to them. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 10, 2019 16:49:57 GMT
If the Tories are holding up pretty much completely in ultra remain parts of London then they are not surging in Brexit voting North/Midlands (have to make the national numbers ultimately add up). Either means that the constituency polls are wrong or we are not heading for the realignment that many are predicting. Judging by past history, i would be more sceptical of the constituency polls. Quite a few of the constituency polls outside London (such as Great Grimsby and Wrexham) have been worse for Labour/better for the Tories than what the national polls are suggesting. But, as you say, constituency polls should have some significant amount of salt applied to them. Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 10, 2019 17:27:12 GMT
Quite a few of the constituency polls outside London (such as Great Grimsby and Wrexham) have been worse for Labour/better for the Tories than what the national polls are suggesting. But, as you say, constituency polls should have some significant amount of salt applied to them. Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. Ironically, I think one of the few to be roughly accurate was one conducted in Sheffield Hallam...which was, IIRC, by ICM rather than by Ashcroft. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 10, 2019 17:34:54 GMT
Quite a few of the constituency polls outside London (such as Great Grimsby and Wrexham) have been worse for Labour/better for the Tories than what the national polls are suggesting. But, as you say, constituency polls should have some significant amount of salt applied to them. Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. There used to be a lot of them in the 1980s, and they were very inaccurate. It wasn't a systematic bias because they were wrong in all directions. But in 1997 there were a good seat of polls in the Observer just before the election which proved to be quite accurate. |
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 10, 2019 17:52:03 GMT
Quite a few of the constituency polls outside London (such as Great Grimsby and Wrexham) have been worse for Labour/better for the Tories than what the national polls are suggesting. But, as you say, constituency polls should have some significant amount of salt applied to them. Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. Most of Ashcroft's constituency polls were conducted long before the election - were those during the campaign actually much worse than the national polls? |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 10, 2019 18:46:01 GMT
Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. There used to be a lot of them in the 1980s, and they were very inaccurate. It wasn't a systematic bias because they were wrong in all directions. But in 1997 there were a good seat of polls in the Observer just before the election which proved to be quite accurate. There was a lot of contention about them in the three way marginals in 1997. Allegations that constituency results were extrapolated from a national poll instead of being genuine local opinion polls. Lib Dem allegations that voters switched to Labour to deliver the result the polls anticipated rather than the result that would have happened without them. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 10, 2019 18:47:58 GMT
Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. Most of Ashcroft's constituency polls were conducted long before the election - were those during the campaign actually much worse than the national polls? Yes! I remember thinking Ashcroft had wasted his money. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 10, 2019 22:45:06 GMT
Constituency polls previously have been way out. Remember Lord Ashcroft’s huge batch, in 2015 IIRC. Ironically, I think one of the few to be roughly accurate was one conducted in Sheffield Hallam...which was, IIRC, by ICM rather than by Ashcroft. Ashcroft did several in Hallam right up to the election and they were not far off. Lots of others were way out but some were a year before the election |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 11, 2019 21:37:52 GMT
Survation have just announced a poll for Stockton South.
Con 46
Lab 43
Brexit 7
LD 3
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 11, 2019 21:49:17 GMT
Survation have just announced a poll for Stockton South. Con 46 Lab 43 Brexit 7 LD 3 A small Lab to Con 2.3% swibg here, uf this us anything like correct. |
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