|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 29, 2019 13:57:26 GMT
As spotted by WJ Tweet of the poll itself for those who aren't interested in the analysis: This appears to be the only Economist/Survation poll so far following their Grimsby one. However, the JC have also published a poll by Populus Data Solutions for Finchley & Golders Green Mike Freer, CON - 29% Luciana Berger, LD - 24% Ross Houston, LAB - 19% None of these - 13% Prefer not to say - 20%
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2019 13:59:10 GMT
We were being told that Labour had "given up" on W/L earlier on in the campaign, so that is modestly encouraging.
|
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on Nov 29, 2019 15:14:40 GMT
We were being told that Labour had "given up" on W/L earlier on in the campaign, so that is modestly encouraging. Labour really do need to retain these marginal seats like these, if Corbyn is to make any progress. |
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 29, 2019 15:17:09 GMT
We were being told that Labour had "given up" on W/L earlier on in the campaign, so that is modestly encouraging. Labour really do need to retain these marginal seats like these, if Corbyn is to make any progress. How much progress they need to make is an open question. Just standing still while other factions took seats off the Conservatives might be enough to give Labour a shot, though in the LD's case Davey indicated we might be willing to let a Conservative minority government (if one was able to form without our backing) carry on assuming they enacted a People's Vote (I wouldn't completely rule out Johnson attempting to pass this with opposition votes). |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 29, 2019 16:28:11 GMT
As spotted by WJ Tweet of the poll itself for those who aren't interested in the analysis:Â This appears to be the only Economist/Survation poll so far following their Grimsby one. However, the JC have also published a poll by Populus Data Solutions for Finchley & Golders Green Mike Freer, CON - 29% Luciana Berger, LD - 24% Ross Houston, LAB - 19% None of these - 13% Prefer not to say - 20% Yougov's MRP had Warwick and Leamington as Con 42, Lab 39 - So not too different and this poll falls well within the estimated ranges for both parties. |
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Nov 29, 2019 16:48:57 GMT
As spotted by WJ WJ Tweet of the poll itself for those who aren't interested in the analysis: This appears to be the only Economist/Survation poll so far following their Grimsby one. However, the JC have also published a poll by Populus Data Solutions for Finchley & Golders Green Mike Freer, CON - 29% Luciana Berger, LD - 24% Ross Houston, LAB - 19% None of these - 13% Prefer not to say - 20% Yougov's MRP had Warwick and Leamington as Con 42, Lab 39 - So not too different and this poll falls well within the estimated ranges for both parties. The Warwick & Leamington one is also fairly close to the Electoral Calculus prediction and the uniform swing predictors, too. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 29, 2019 16:49:37 GMT
We were being told that Labour had "given up" on W/L earlier on in the campaign, so that is modestly encouraging. Labour really do need to retain these marginal seats like these, if Corbyn is to make any progress. In marginal Dewsbury I received my first publication mentioning Paula Sherriff today (an election communication), two days after casting my postal vote. There had also been one generic Climate emergency card one from Labour. From the Tories I have had one tabloid newspaper telling me how the candidate will come and sweep your drive if you ask him, one tabloid "Dewsbury News" in red clothing (hold on, only the Lib Dems do those according to the Guardian), one election communication letter from the candidate which arrived yesterday and I think two glossy cards explaining all about how the Johnson deal will lead to sunlit uplands in all areas of society. In 2017 I received 2 glossy leaflets and a letter from Sherriff before nominations opened, and more after. Friends in Colne Valley have only had the Climate Emergency card
My conclusion is that Labour are really not trying very hard to hold onto their marginal seats, unless they are doing it in ways that avoid my letterbox (and my neighbour who will certainly not be on their list as a Lib Dem)
|
|
|
|
Post by polaris on Nov 29, 2019 16:57:51 GMT
Labour really do need to retain these marginal seats like these, if Corbyn is to make any progress. In marginal Dewsbury I received my first publication mentioning Paula Sherriff today (an election communication), two days after casting my postal vote. There had also been one generic Climate emergency card one from Labour. From the Tories I have had one tabloid newspaper telling me how the candidate will come and sweep your drive if you ask him, one tabloid "Dewsbury News" in red clothing (hold on, only the Lib Dems do those according to the Guardian), one election communication letter from the candidate which arrived yesterday and I think two glossy cards explaining all about how the Johnson deal will lead to sunlit uplands in all areas of society. In 2017 I received 2 glossy leaflets and a letter from Sherriff before nominations opened, and more after. Friends in Colne Valley have only had the Climate Emergency card
My conclusion is that Labour are really not trying very hard to hold onto their marginal seats, unless they are doing it in ways that avoid my letterbox (and my neighbour who will certainly not be on their list as a Lib Dem)
In other words, they are doing what they did in 2015, when several marginal seats like Bolton West and Telford were unexpectedly lost. It was foolish then, at a time when Labour were doing OK in the polls, and it's even more foolish now. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 29, 2019 17:07:01 GMT
Labour really do need to retain these marginal seats like these, if Corbyn is to make any progress. In marginal Dewsbury I received my first publication mentioning Paula Sherriff today (an election communication), two days after casting my postal vote. There had also been one generic Climate emergency card one from Labour. From the Tories I have had one tabloid newspaper telling me how the candidate will come and sweep your drive if you ask him, one tabloid "Dewsbury News" in red clothing (hold on, only the Lib Dems do those according to the Guardian), one election communication letter from the candidate which arrived yesterday and I think two glossy cards explaining all about how the Johnson deal will lead to sunlit uplands in all areas of society. In 2017 I received 2 glossy leaflets and a letter from Sherriff before nominations opened, and more after. Friends in Colne Valley have only had the Climate Emergency card
My conclusion is that Labour are really not trying very hard to hold onto their marginal seats, unless they are doing it in ways that avoid my letterbox (and my neighbour who will certainly not be on their list as a Lib Dem)
Which ward are you in? If its Kirkburton or Mirfield I'd imagine you'll get your statutory leaflet and not much else |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2019 17:12:02 GMT
My conclusion is that Labour are really not trying very hard to hold onto their marginal seats, unless they are doing it in ways that avoid my letterbox (and my neighbour who will certainly not be on their list as a Lib Dem)
Have now received our first communication of the campaign (Labour seat, maj.48). A rather dull freepost from Labour. Interestingly an addressed freepost, which meant we got two identical leaflets on the same day. Isn't the whole point of an addressed freepost that it allows you to get two or more (where appropriate) leaflets into a household? It gives me the impression - rightly or wrongly - of an uninspired campaign. With a majority of under 50 ... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2019 17:14:36 GMT
Ive actually been working quite hard...
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 29, 2019 17:17:00 GMT
Ive actually been working quite hard... Time for a cup of tea and an Eccles cake then. Or a Chorley cake if you want a pastry not represented by one of the main parties.  |
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Nov 29, 2019 17:18:00 GMT
We seem to be running an expansionary campaign in west yorks, with Pudsey, Calder Valley and Morely all competing for resources. This is as opposed to 2017 when defending Dewsbury, Batley, Halifax and Wakefield were the big priorities - this is where the money was being spent. I pray that Dewsbury CLP and others like it have significant enough resources on their own to keep up a solid campaign - as I think we are doing in Colne Valley. I dearly hope this does not backfire..
|
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 29, 2019 17:19:05 GMT
Ive actually been working quite hard... Time for a cup of tea and an Eccles cake then. Or a Chorley cake if you want a pastry not represented by one of the main parties. If there is to be a contest between cakes from smaller parties' constituencies, you ought to know only Kendal Mint can beat the Chorley cake here. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 29, 2019 17:27:10 GMT
Time for a cup of tea and an Eccles cake then. Or a Chorley cake if you want a pastry not represented by one of the main parties. If there is to be a contest between cakes from smaller parties' constituencies, you ought to know only Kendal Mint can beat the Chorley cake here. Has to be Eccles or Chorley. This is a currant affairs discussion you know.  |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 29, 2019 17:29:49 GMT
In marginal Dewsbury I received my first publication mentioning Paula Sherriff today (an election communication), two days after casting my postal vote. There had also been one generic Climate emergency card one from Labour. From the Tories I have had one tabloid newspaper telling me how the candidate will come and sweep your drive if you ask him, one tabloid "Dewsbury News" in red clothing (hold on, only the Lib Dems do those according to the Guardian), one election communication letter from the candidate which arrived yesterday and I think two glossy cards explaining all about how the Johnson deal will lead to sunlit uplands in all areas of society. In 2017 I received 2 glossy leaflets and a letter from Sherriff before nominations opened, and more after. Friends in Colne Valley have only had the Climate Emergency card
My conclusion is that Labour are really not trying very hard to hold onto their marginal seats, unless they are doing it in ways that avoid my letterbox (and my neighbour who will certainly not be on their list as a Lib Dem)
Which ward are you in? If its Kirkburton or Mirfield I'd imagine you'll get your statutory leaflet and not much else I am in Mirfield, but Labour can hardly afford to ignore Mirfield where they got 31% in the local elections in 2018, falling to 18% in 2019 (to the benefit of the Greens). And as I say I was far from ignored in the 2017 GE |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 29, 2019 17:33:02 GMT
We seem to be running an expansionary campaign in west yorks, with Pudsey, Calder Valley and Morely all competing for resources. This is as opposed to 2017 when defending Dewsbury, Batley, Halifax and Wakefield were the big priorities - this is where the money was being spent. I pray that Dewsbury CLP and others like it have significant enough resources on their own to keep up a solid campaign - as I think we are doing in Colne Valley. I dearly hope this does not backfire.. So "hubris" is not confined to the Lib Dems then... |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 29, 2019 17:35:27 GMT
Which ward are you in? If its Kirkburton or Mirfield I'd imagine you'll get your statutory leaflet and not much else I am in Mirfield, but Labour can hardly afford to ignore Mirfield where they got 31% in the local elections in 2018, falling to 18% in 2019 (to the benefit of the Greens). And as I say I was far from ignored in the 2017 GE Theres a general rule about not disturbing your enemy. Nationally Labour don't do that well in Mirfield . Better to concentrate on getting the vote out in the safe wards |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 29, 2019 17:37:15 GMT
Ive actually been working quite hard... The Labour campaign in Dewsbury in 2017 attacked my letter box with serious cash paid to various delivery companies (over 60k in 10 days before the short campaign began, I estimate, if you multiply my letter box by 40k), not hard work... This time the Tories are doing that, but not Labour |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 29, 2019 17:39:33 GMT
We were being told that Labour had "given up" on W/L earlier on in the campaign, so that is modestly encouraging. Why were they giving up? |
|
