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Post by greenchristian on Nov 23, 2019 19:34:56 GMT
To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London. If you're going to do constituency polls for informational (rather than partisan) purposes, then you should make sure you poll some safe seats if only to be able to tell how consistent your polls are with national polling. If this had been done in the run-up to 2015 then maybe fewer of us would have expected the Lib Dems to retain more seats than national polling suggested.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 23, 2019 19:36:02 GMT
To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London. Hendon was a close marginal in 2017.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 23, 2019 19:38:27 GMT
A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London. Hendon was a close marginal in 2017. Closer than I remember, but by the numbers, Chipping Barnet and Richmond Park were closer (though I understand why polling the latter might not be seen as particularly worthwhile).
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Nov 23, 2019 21:21:37 GMT
To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London. Reasonably sensible selection of seats if one wants some controls for comparison with the seats currently getting most interest. Chelsea and Fulham borders both on Cities of London and Westminster and on Kensington - all three are socially at least vaguely similar and, at least until recent years, would all have been considered fairly safe Conservative areas (Hammersmith and Fulham was Labour between 1997 and 2005 but largely, I suspect because of the Hammersmith rather than the Fulham part of the constituency). Hendon borders on Finchley and Golders Green and, again, not only have similar political histories (Labour between 1997 and 2010, Conservative before and since) but also large Jewish populations (though Hendon, unlike Finchley, contains a couple of wards rather more similar socially to neighboring parts of Brent than to most of the rest of Barnet).
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 23, 2019 22:01:46 GMT
The Guardian's let slip that of C of W&L, Chelsea & Fulham, and Hendon will be among them. The Guardian didn't just let the constituencies slip, they basically gave the results away - LDems improving in all three but not enough to take the seat. The poll in the Cities is good news for Chuka, I would say. Clear second place and clear first place "if only Con or LD could win. These polls may or may not be correct but there is a consistent pattern of LD having more chance than Lab IF voters think they can win
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 24, 2019 0:14:36 GMT
I hope this is part of a trend of Labour-leaning voters tactically voting for LD (or other remain) parties regardless of the leadership's resistance to such tactics!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2019 11:11:41 GMT
These polls in the Observer should be treated with a bit of caution, they are clearly an exercise aimed at boosting the LibDems.
(and it is not clear who is actually behind them, rarely a good sign)
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 24, 2019 14:18:05 GMT
I'm oven-ready for some more opinion polls.
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 24, 2019 14:20:16 GMT
These polls in the Observer should be treated with a bit of caution, they are clearly an exercise aimed at boosting the LibDems. (and it is not clear who is actually behind them, rarely a good sign) Anyone who thinks the Guardian and Observer want to boost the LDs is not paying much attention.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 24, 2019 15:44:04 GMT
These polls in the Observer should be treated with a bit of caution, they are clearly an exercise aimed at boosting the LibDems. (and it is not clear who is actually behind them, rarely a good sign)Peter Kellner and The Observer are behind them. IMO they're far more likely to be en exercise aimed at studying the extent and effects of the LD advance in parts of London, which is generally easier to poll than, say, Ross, Skye & Lochaber. Next.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 24, 2019 17:43:29 GMT
YouGov surveys have been asking about voting intention here (Altrincham & Sale West) repeatedly, with and without candidates named. I'm fully expecting that to come out as a constituency poll.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 24, 2019 18:07:46 GMT
YouGov surveys have been asking about voting intention here (Altrincham & Sale West) repeatedly, with and without candidates named. I'm fully expecting that to come out as a constituency poll. If they're commissioned by a political party and they don't give a result that fits a narrative they want to put out then we'll never hear about them. This can actually be that it shows them winning comfortably but the 'wrong' party in second or even it just confirms what they needed to know for internal campaigning reasons. Of course, it can also show that your party is out of it or not doing as well as hoped so there's no reason to release that either.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 24, 2019 18:13:50 GMT
YouGov surveys have been asking about voting intention here (Altrincham & Sale West) repeatedly, with and without candidates named. I'm fully expecting that to come out as a constituency poll. If they're commissioned by a political party and they don't give a result that fits a narrative they want to put out then we'll never hear about them. This can actually be that it shows them winning comfortably but the 'wrong' party in second or even it just confirms what they needed to know for internal campaigning reasons. Of course, it can also show that your party is out of it or not doing as well as hoped so there's no reason to release that either. That's true, hadn't thought about it being a privately-commissioned poll. I was thinking of it being one YouGov were choosing to run themselves, it's a peculiar contest here that's not necessarily going to fit with national patterns at all.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 24, 2019 18:20:16 GMT
If they're commissioned by a political party and they don't give a result that fits a narrative they want to put out then we'll never hear about them. This can actually be that it shows them winning comfortably but the 'wrong' party in second or even it just confirms what they needed to know for internal campaigning reasons. Of course, it can also show that your party is out of it or not doing as well as hoped so there's no reason to release that either. That's true, hadn't thought about it being a privately-commissioned poll. I was thinking of it being one YouGov were choosing to run themselves, it's a peculiar contest here that's not necessarily going to fit with national patterns at all. With named candidates and without named candidate questions point to it being a political party commissioned poll. If it was independent they'd only ask one or the other. But depending on the nature of the seat, if only one of those questions is asked it could be a political party!
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 24, 2019 19:05:05 GMT
If they're commissioned by a political party and they don't give a result that fits a narrative they want to put out then we'll never hear about them. This can actually be that it shows them winning comfortably but the 'wrong' party in second or even it just confirms what they needed to know for internal campaigning reasons. Of course, it can also show that your party is out of it or not doing as well as hoped so there's no reason to release that either. That's true, hadn't thought about it being a privately-commissioned poll. I was thinking of it being one YouGov were choosing to run themselves, it's a peculiar contest here that's not necessarily going to fit with national patterns at all. Given the general cost of polls and the fact that we're in the election expenses period already, would a local party be comfortable with splurging on a constituency poll?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 24, 2019 19:50:21 GMT
That's true, hadn't thought about it being a privately-commissioned poll. I was thinking of it being one YouGov were choosing to run themselves, it's a peculiar contest here that's not necessarily going to fit with national patterns at all. Given the general cost of polls and the fact that we're in the election expenses period already, would a local party be comfortable with splurging on a constituency poll? It'd all depend on their expenses situation in the constituency. Apparently this one would go on the constituency expenses because it includes candidate names. The other possibility is that it's being done by a third party allied with a party standing in a constituency (so would be registered with the electoral commission).
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 24, 2019 20:44:52 GMT
That's true, hadn't thought about it being a privately-commissioned poll. I was thinking of it being one YouGov were choosing to run themselves, it's a peculiar contest here that's not necessarily going to fit with national patterns at all. Given the general cost of polls and the fact that we're in the election expenses period already, would a local party be comfortable with splurging on a constituency poll? Quite a nifty get-out for YouGov with that. They first ask for general voting intention, and *then* ask about local. Only if they have the latter do they include the local question. That's how they can mix local polling in with national.
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 24, 2019 21:11:34 GMT
Given the general cost of polls and the fact that we're in the election expenses period already, would a local party be comfortable with splurging on a constituency poll? It'd all depend on their expenses situation in the constituency. Apparently this one would go on the constituency expenses because it includes candidate names. The other possibility is that it's being done by a third party allied with a party standing in a constituency (so would be registered with the electoral commission). I am not sure a poll in itself would be a candidate expense? Publishing it might make it one..
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 24, 2019 23:23:51 GMT
It'd all depend on their expenses situation in the constituency. Apparently this one would go on the constituency expenses because it includes candidate names. The other possibility is that it's being done by a third party allied with a party standing in a constituency (so would be registered with the electoral commission). I am not sure a poll in itself would be a candidate expense? Publishing it might make it one.. That's beyond my realm of knowledge.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2019 16:51:53 GMT
These polls in the Observer should be treated with a bit of caution, they are clearly an exercise aimed at boosting the LibDems. (and it is not clear who is actually behind them, rarely a good sign) Anyone who thinks the Guardian and Observer want to boost the LDs is not paying much attention. Seriously, the Observer (a quite different paper to the Graun, to an extent many don't seem to appreciate) is the nearest thing your party has to a house journal.
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