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Post by finsobruce on Feb 2, 2015 21:34:04 GMT
More ramping from Lord Ashcroft Oh, just get on with it Ashcroft! |
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Post by bolbridge on Feb 2, 2015 21:41:25 GMT
I'm both excited about seeing what's happening in Scotland and terrified that Ashcroft will put us 3rd in one or more of our held seats. My biggest nightmare is that it happens somewhere really unexpected. almost certain to happen in present circs I would have thought (has anyone been told which seats are being polled?) Gordon and Glasgow South rumoured on UKPR. I would expect Ashcroft to go for high profile figures so: Gordon Inverness East Renfrewshire Kirkcaldy? (even though Brown is going) DCT? (Only Tory seat) Douglas Alexander's seat? Ochil? (Closest to an SNP gain) - but Failkirk might be interesting given Labour's troubles there. Dundee W would be so predictable it would be boring. I would expect him to do either BRS or WAnK as possible Con gains. |
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Post by dizz on Feb 2, 2015 21:47:36 GMT
Argyll & Bute Edinburgh West East Dumbartonshire Any others would be shocking. Aberdeenshire West wouldn't be I would be shocked with that, though clearly I should have included Gordon in the list. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2015 21:55:13 GMT
Forget about Ashcroft. My constituency polls are much better.
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Post by bolbridge on Feb 2, 2015 22:18:59 GMT
Aberdeenshire West wouldn't be I would be shocked with that, though clearly I should have included Gordon in the list. I think if we aren't coming second in Gordon then The SNP are on 50%+ and everyone else under 20%. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 3, 2015 14:27:27 GMT
Aberdeenshire West wouldn't be I would be shocked with that, though clearly I should have included Gordon in the list. If LDs don't hold 2nd in Gordon then they're really in deep do-do. Inverness is definitely a possibility to fall to third (or worse). And I wouldn't totally rule out West Aberdeenshire, although they stand more chance of still being first than finishing third. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 3, 2015 14:56:31 GMT
I've seen at least one person suggest they could come fifth in Norwich South (it isn't impossible I suppose but is highly unlikely)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 3, 2015 14:57:14 GMT
Argyll & Bute Edinburgh West East Dumbartonshire Any others would be shocking. It isn't impossible that the LibDems could come in fourth place in a seat that they hold. Although Argyll and Bute and Edinburgh West are the only realistic possibilities there. Unless NE Fife proves a real shocker for them, but that's real nightmare territory. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 3, 2015 15:29:20 GMT
Argyll & Bute Edinburgh West East Dumbartonshire Any others would be shocking. It isn't impossible that the LibDems could come in fourth place in a seat that they hold. Gordon is a possibility especially if Bruce had a stronger personal vote than thought. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2015 17:23:03 GMT
I think it's possible that the Liberal Democrats could come fifth in Edinburgh North & Leith and/or in Edinburgh South, despite being an extremely close second in both last time.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 3, 2015 17:24:53 GMT
With North and Leith being the more likely of the two. I think they'll hold up s bit better in South.
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Post by Ben Walker on Feb 3, 2015 23:41:47 GMT
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 4, 2015 0:14:05 GMT
If these are correct then I'm disappointed with his choice of seats.
I would be pretty pleased with Gordon, but Inverness is dire.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 0:19:31 GMT
So Gorbals Mick's old seat is the only one projected to stay Labour.
I'd like to see some polls for:
Dumfries & Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Stirling
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Labour's prospects are probably better in D&G and Stirling than most of the Glasgow seats.
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Post by Ben Walker on Feb 4, 2015 0:35:19 GMT
The polls mapped:
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 0:37:02 GMT
I'm hoping that these are only a partial leak, as I'd like to see polls for some Edinburgh seats, which could all potentially be won on around 30% if not less in some cases.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2015 0:52:40 GMT
It would have been nice to have a few more polls in Labour-held constituencies on the eastern side of Scotland around Edinburgh, Fife, Falkirk, etc.
These areas had a lower Yes vote than the Glasgow area and so Labour may be doing better there even though their majorities from 2010 are smaller in a lot of the seats.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 4, 2015 0:58:30 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 1:14:40 GMT
Actually, whilst not a fan of constituency polls, these are pretty interesting. It is weird to have over-emphasised the pro-Yes areas, as they were in the minority, but the SNP growth is impressive. The results show that Labour have a chance to close the gap in many of these seats, according to the poll data. It shows how important the ground game is going to be and they will need to admit defeat in some constituencies and concentrate on others.
I agree that some data from Edinburgh and the Borders would have been useful, as it might show a less impressive position for the SNP.
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Post by Ben Walker on Feb 4, 2015 2:43:27 GMT
On more important matters:
Glasgow North East has UKIP polling 5%.
Finally.
Maybe there is a Scottish seat where we can save our deposit!
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