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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 17:52:53 GMT
Gordon I'd think would be the most 'no' of the seats polled, though possibly more 'yes' than any of our other seats (I believe I am correct in saying that the 'yes' vote in Highland was heavily concentrated in Inverness) Inverness, Skye, and Lochaber.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2015 19:31:31 GMT
Gordon I'd think would be the most 'no' of the seats polled, though possibly more 'yes' than any of our other seats (I believe I am correct in saying that the 'yes' vote in Highland was heavily concentrated in Inverness) Inverness, Skye, and Lochaber. Inverness-shire
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 4, 2015 20:51:28 GMT
The point made above about incumbency is a good one. I don't think Ashcroft put candidates' names in his polls, and as someone who has actually taken series of constituency opinion polls (before the 1987 election) I found that once we did this, after nominations had closed, the incumbent party did considerably better. This should apply strongly in the case of Liberal Democrat MPs, and less so but still to some extent for Labour MPs; for example, there are likely to be some people who will draw back from throwing out 'good ol' Jimmy Hood'. I would also again point out how the SNP has done less well recently in actual elections compared with pre-election polls, for example in the European elections last year (never mind the referendum itself). The argument that when it comes to the crunch in a Westminster election voters will draw back from weakening Labour's chances of forming a government with the effect of improving Cameron's chances of leading the largest party is indeed somewhat weakened by the idea that there might still be a Labour-SNP arrangement does have some merit, but I don't think it will occur to every potential switcher to the Nationalists. Nor should it, as I believe that if Labour do lose most of their Scottish seats they will be unlikely even to improve on the 258 they achieved in total in 2010, and have no real chance of returning to office. Notwithstanding all this, one thing does seem clear. There are going to be a lot more seats that cannot be regarded as safe, and it will make election night even more exciting for those of us watching!
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2015 21:10:42 GMT
The point made above about incumbency is a good one. I don't think Ashcroft put candidates' names in his polls, and as someone who has actually taken series of constituency opinion polls (before the 1987 election) I found that once we did this, after nominations had closed, the incumbent party did considerably better. This should apply strongly in the case of Liberal Democrat MPs, and less so but still to some extent for Labour MPs; for example, there are likely to be some people who will draw back from throwing out 'good ol' Jimmy Hood'. I would also again point out how the SNP has done less well recently in actual elections compared with pre-election polls, for example in the European elections last year (never mind the referendum itself). The argument that when it comes to the crunch in a Westminster election voters will draw back from weakening Labour's chances of forming a government with the effect of improving Cameron's chances of leading the largest party is indeed somewhat weakened by the idea that there might still be a Labour-SNP arrangement does have some merit, but I don't think it will occur to every potential switcher to the Nationalists. Nor should it, as I believe that if Labour do lose most of their Scottish seats they will be unlikely even to improve on the 258 they achieved in total in 2010, and have no real chance of returning to office. Notwithstanding all this, one thing does seem clear. There are going to be a lot more seats that cannot be regarded as safe, and it will make election night even more exciting for those of us watching! Ashcroft couldn't have done so because most of the names of the SNP candidates weren't announced until a few hours ago.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 4, 2015 21:43:02 GMT
Survation poll for Unite reported by Mike Smithson
Sheffield Hallam
Labour 33% Lib Dem 23% Con 22% Green 12% UKIP 9%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2015 21:44:54 GMT
That looks like a voodoo poll
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 4, 2015 21:45:40 GMT
News this evening of a Survation poll of Sheffield Hallam with the following striking findings: Lab 33% L Dem 23% C 22% GP 12% UKIP 9% Source www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nick-clegg-could-lose-seat-5107412Now that does look rather similar to the Ashcroft poll there, if you take the initial result and not the one where voters are then asked "and in this constituency?". But instead of that, Clegg's spokesperson has rather pathetically attacked Unite the Union for daring to be involved in politics.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 4, 2015 22:30:50 GMT
Survation poll for Unite reported by Mike Smithson Sheffield Hallam Labour 33% Lib Dem 23% Con 22% Green 12% UKIP 9% Crock of shite. 2.2% would be closer than 22%.
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Post by Ben Walker on Feb 5, 2015 0:29:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 3:27:19 GMT
Survation poll for Unite reported by Mike Smithson Sheffield Hallam Labour 33% Lib Dem 23% Con 22% Green 12% UKIP 9% Lol, no.
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wallington
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Post by wallington on Feb 5, 2015 8:14:32 GMT
Survation poll for Unite reported by Mike Smithson Sheffield Hallam Labour 33% Lib Dem 23% Con 22% Green 12% UKIP 9% Hmmm, not sure I would take too much from it, were people asked which candidate in Sheffield Hallam they should vote for? The Lib Dems were silly to attack Unite of doing the poll. Also, plenty of Conservative vote to squeeze...
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Post by Devonian on Feb 5, 2015 8:35:29 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 8:56:19 GMT
Neither Gordon nor Inverness were in Yes voting areas. Just saying. Which is why I used the qualification "mostly". Just saying.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 5, 2015 9:14:13 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 5, 2015 9:14:33 GMT
That BelTel poll has the most bizarre colour scheme.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 5, 2015 9:26:36 GMT
It's the Tele. Of course it's poorly thought through.
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Post by bolbridge on Feb 5, 2015 9:30:44 GMT
I had no idea there would be such a huge gender gap. It must complicate knocking up!
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 5, 2015 9:42:01 GMT
That BelTel poll has the most bizarre colour scheme. I particularly like putting the Greens in Yellow
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 5, 2015 11:09:58 GMT
To be fair the Greens probably don't have first call on the colour green whenit comes to Northern Ireland Was that really the best constituency map he could find?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 5, 2015 11:11:28 GMT
Survation poll for Unite reported by Mike Smithson Sheffield Hallam Labour 33% Lib Dem 23% Con 22% Green 12% UKIP 9% Hmmm, not sure I would take too much from it, were people asked which candidate in Sheffield Hallam they should vote for? The Lib Dems were silly to attack Unite of doing the poll. Also, plenty of Conservative vote to squeeze... The name of the constituency was actually mentioned, yes. No I don't really believe it myself; yes I expect Clegg to take quite a bit of that Tory vote on the day - but this shows at least he can't take anything for granted.
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