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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 21, 2019 17:35:55 GMT
Anyone heard of an outfit called polls.uk? I stumbled upon their twitter feed earlier where they are presenting a selection of constituency polls. From what I can gather, this isn't an actual polling organisation but are instead financial analysts. They present the raw data without performing any weighting etc. so some of the results they are portraying look out of kilter with other polling organisations not least because they are predicting a number of Brexit Party gains - 24 in total. The sample sizes across all of the constituencies is over 1,000. Given the other constituency polls we have seen from Survation have only had around 400, the cynic in me is wondering how they are able to achieve such a large sample size given I assume that there is nobody in the background commissioning the polls. I'm taking the numbers with a bucketful of salt but I thought I'd present a few for the group's enjoyment. Hull West & Hessle. Prediction: Brexit Party Gain Sample size: 1145 Date polled: 18-19/11/19 Conservative: 21.5% Labour: 25.2% Lib Dems: 2.3% Brexit Party: 49.1% Green Party: 1.9% Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford. Prediction: Brexit Party Gain Sample size: 1477 Date polled: 16-17-18/11/19 Conservative: 21.1% Labour: 22.9% Lib Dems: 2.3% Brexit Party: 51.8% Others: 1.9% Birmingham Yardley. Sample size: 1105 Date polled: 15/11/19 Conservative: 16.7% Labour: 33.8% Lib Dems: 18.6% Brexit Party: 30.1% Green Party: 0.8% Those results are massive outliers, though oddly their other polls seem somewhat plausible. They're bullish on Labour in Labour-Conservative marginals (having them close in Wycombe and holding Dudley North), and bullish on Lib Dems in their marginals with Labour (Sheffield Hallam isn't even close, Cambridge is fairly securely Lib Dem too). And their two safe seat results (Leicester South and Beaconsfield) both look reasonable. I don't know why their methods seem to fail in seats with a Brexit Party presence - whilst NPC could maybe go their way on a great night for them (one of the few that might), it'd be by 2% and not 29%. An interesting test might be to see what they get if they poll Great Grimsby, if the results seem fairly congruent with the Survation poll I might trust them more, but if they have the Brexit Party miles ahead there too I'd completely ignore them. I don't know if they're properly accredited or anything - I suspect not.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,288
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 21, 2019 18:06:26 GMT
Their national polling has the Brexit Party up 5% and Conservatives down 4% since the start of November. For whatever reason, their results seem to have a huge inbuilt bias towards the Brexit Party.
EDIT: They also have a poll on Boris deal saying 65% see it as BRINO...
Really...
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 21, 2019 18:11:00 GMT
If that's anywhere near accurate, that's an absolutely stunning figure - a double digit swing! If a similar swing was seen on the other side of the Humber (which is just as pro-Leave), Hull West and Hessle would be ultra-marginal, and Hull East would be fairly close. Also, whilst there will be churn, the Brexit Party appear to be gaining votes from Labour in seats like this. Farage's current tactic (almost exclusively going after Labour or former Labour leavers) seems to be working. Only a 10% swing, which is almost in line with national polls.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 21, 2019 18:37:26 GMT
If that's anywhere near accurate, that's an absolutely stunning figure - a double digit swing! If a similar swing was seen on the other side of the Humber (which is just as pro-Leave), Hull West and Hessle would be ultra-marginal, and Hull East would be fairly close. Also, whilst there will be churn, the Brexit Party appear to be gaining votes from Labour in seats like this. Farage's current tactic (almost exclusively going after Labour or former Labour leavers) seems to be working. Only a 10% swing, which is almost in line with national polls. Isn't the national swing more like 6% ish ? Tories much the same; Labour down around 12 points ?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 21, 2019 18:52:40 GMT
Isn't the national swing more like 6% ish ? Quite a bit of variation. Lowest over the past week was three, highest was eight. Average seems to be about five.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 21, 2019 20:25:12 GMT
Constituency polling is no more reliable than it was under Ashcroft. Look how badly the Brexit Party is polling at present, even taking into account the fact there are only 271 Brexit Party candidates due to their absence from Conservative-held seats.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 21, 2019 20:35:37 GMT
Given all the lies told about fishing in the referendum and since, I fully expect Labour to lose the handful of seats they have with strong fishing communities. I'd written off Grimsby weeks ago. The other poll showing BXp over 50% are just Although I suspect they may poll very well in Hull W given they have a fairly high profile candidate
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 21, 2019 20:41:25 GMT
Given all the lies told about fishing in the referendum and since, I fully expect Labour to lose the handful of seats they have with strong fishing communities. I'd written off Grimsby weeks ago. The other poll showing BXp over 50% are just Although I suspect they may poll very well in Hull W given they have a fairly high profile candidate
Dewberry stood in 2017 as an anti pro Brexit candidate in Hull W and got 5.5%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2019 20:44:47 GMT
Given all the lies told about fishing in the referendum and since, I fully expect Labour to lose the handful of seats they have with strong fishing communities. I'd written off Grimsby weeks ago. The other poll showing BXp over 50% are just Although I suspect they may poll very well in Hull W given they have a fairly high profile candidate
Dewberry stood in 2017 as an anti pro Brexit candidate in Hull W and got 5.5% She was a pro-Brexit candidate (I assume you meant to type that) but for an Independent that was a respectable result and beat UKIP (who got 4%). With a party label and backing I think she will do very well though I'd stop short of predicting a victory
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,842
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Post by jamie on Nov 22, 2019 17:25:01 GMT
Dewberry stood in 2017 as an anti pro Brexit candidate in Hull W and got 5.5% She was a pro-Brexit candidate (I assume you meant to type that) but for an Independent that was a respectable result and beat UKIP (who got 4%). With a party label and backing I think she will do very well though I'd stop short of predicting a victory I think she got a wad of cash and expertise from some organisation that supports independent candidates, which will have helped get the relatively decent result.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,516
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 22, 2019 17:53:35 GMT
She was a pro-Brexit candidate (I assume you meant to type that) but for an Independent that was a respectable result and beat UKIP (who got 4%). With a party label and backing I think she will do very well though I'd stop short of predicting a victory I think she got a wad of cash and expertise from some organisation that supports independent candidates, which will have helped get the relatively decent result. Didn't know The Jury Team was still around...
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 23, 2019 18:47:40 GMT
The Guardian's let slip that of C of W&L, Chelsea & Fulham, and Hendon will be among them.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 23, 2019 18:52:58 GMT
The Guardian's let slip that of C of W&L, Chelsea & Fulham, and Hendon will be among them. Do Deltapoll know that there are elections going on outside of West London too?
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Post by formerfifer on Nov 23, 2019 19:06:34 GMT
The Guardian's let slip that of C of W&L, Chelsea & Fulham, and Hendon will be among them. The Guardian didn't just let the constituencies slip, they basically gave the results away - LDems improving in all three but not enough to take the seat.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 23, 2019 19:07:45 GMT
The Guardian's let slip that of C of W&L, Chelsea & Fulham, and Hendon will be among them. The Guardian didn't just let the constituencies slip, they basically gave the results away - LDems improving in all three but not enough to take the seat. There may be more than three polls.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 23, 2019 19:20:02 GMT
Do Deltapoll know that there are elections going on outside of West London too? To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer There’s defitnely no world outside of London for the observer!
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Post by formerfifer on Nov 23, 2019 19:21:46 GMT
Do Deltapoll know that there are elections going on outside of West London too? To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 23, 2019 19:23:58 GMT
To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London. Chelsea in particular is a very odd choice. Even within London, go to Enfield Southgate or Battersea.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 23, 2019 19:24:44 GMT
To be fair to Deltapoll I think the polls were commissioned by the Observer A strange selection of seats - appreciate they had to go with Kensington and Finchley previously and this week, Cities of London and Westminster given the profile of the candidates but I've not seen anything to date that had suggested Chelsea or Hendon being anything other than safe Conservative holds. Surely there are more informative and more interesting seats in London. Greg Hands ramped the prospect of losing to Labour on a three way split early in the campaign. The LDs (not here, but the wider party) have also ramped in this seat, though I've never been of the opinion that we'd win it and this poll makes me firmer in that belief. Hendon would not spring to mind if I were a constituency pollster, but it is one of the closest London marginals.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 23, 2019 19:25:13 GMT
Have a look at the weighting changes. In Two Cities, the 18 people aged 18-24 are inflated to 48, while the 181 people aged 65+ are deflated to 94.
The age cross-breaks look very iffy - the 25-34 year olds (43 individuals inflated to 104) are less Labour than the 35-44 year olds. The 35-44s are more Tory than the 45-54s. Labour leads in the C2s but the Conservatives are ahead in the DEs.
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