The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2019 12:18:36 GMT
Reminds me of Atul Hatwaddle's output in the last GE campaign.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Nov 12, 2019 13:55:31 GMT
According to Jewish News,a constituency poll in Finchley & Golders Green on behalf of Gina Miller's outfit has the Tories ahead on 41%, Labour on 35% and Luciana Berger at only 22% - a large swing from LD to Lab since the previous one. I don't know how reliable either this or the previous poll are, although this one is much more in line with national opinion polls (albeit with a distinctly smaller swing from Lab to Con, about 1.4%, than any current national polls - a swing which if repeated nationally would probably lead to the Tories winning fewer seats than in 2017). Not a poll - it's just their MRP modelling
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Nov 12, 2019 16:00:09 GMT
I did wonder. Thanks. The internal polling re Islington S is pure bullshit but probably almost everyone here would have realised that. Who blabbed though? And more to the point why?
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Post by Strontium Dog on Nov 12, 2019 16:19:06 GMT
I did wonder. Thanks. The internal polling re Islington S is pure bullshit but probably almost everyone here would have realised that. Who blabbed though? And more to the point why? Sounds like a ploy to divert Lib Dem resources to Islington. I'm sure we're smart enough not to fall for that.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2019 17:06:14 GMT
I did wonder. Thanks. The internal polling re Islington S is pure bullshit but probably almost everyone here would have realised that. Who blabbed though? And more to the point why? Nobody blabbed as Labour is not doing any internal polling in Islington South.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 12, 2019 17:08:32 GMT
Who blabbed though? And more to the point why? Nobody blabbed as Labour is not doing any internal polling in Islington South. Well, we'd expect you to say that, of course ...
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Post by andrewp on Nov 13, 2019 17:49:08 GMT
The Times has produced some pretty suspect looking constituency polls today, with no mention of where they have come from but for what they are worth
St Ives Con 42, LD 38, Lab 12 Lewes Con 43, LD 39, Lab 10 Cheltenham Con 41, LD 40, Lab 10 Winchester Con 44, LD 38, Lab 9
Then the following seats with the Brexit party standing
Castle Point Con 40, Brex 26, LD 13, Lab 12 Clacton Con 41, Brex 24, Lab 14, LD 13 Thurrock Con 33, Lab 26, Brex 23, LD 11 Basildon S Con 39, Brex 22, Lab 19, LD 11 Thanet S Con 35, Lab 21, Brex 20, LD 14 Chatham Con 40, Lab 20, Brex 20, LD 12
There are also some even more suspect ones from Labour seats
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 13, 2019 18:06:51 GMT
The Times has produced some pretty suspect looking constituency polls today, with no mention of where they have come from A keyboard, presumably.
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 13, 2019 18:34:57 GMT
The Times has produced some pretty suspect looking constituency polls today, with no mention of where they have come from A keyboard, presumably. I feel a visit to Electoral Calculus may have been involved.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 13, 2019 18:43:02 GMT
I feel a visit to Electoral Calculus may have been involved. The scene : The newsroom
The scenario: pressure to produce edgy election stories
The revelation: "Guys, guys! I've found this site where you can put stuff in and get out any result you like!"
All: " Wow!"
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 13, 2019 18:49:12 GMT
I feel a visit to Electoral Calculus may have been involved. Those aren't electoral calculus' current numbers. (They have the Lib Dem ahead in Cheltenham) It's possible they could have been in the past though, before the Brexit Party were removed. I don't think the figures are taken from an MRP model either, unless there's another one not publicly accessible. Unless they publish tables I'm leaning towards completely made up.
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 13, 2019 22:05:40 GMT
I feel a visit to Electoral Calculus may have been involved. Those aren't electoral calculus' current numbers. (They have the Lib Dem ahead in Cheltenham) It's possible they could have been in the past though, before the Brexit Party were removed. I don't think the figures are taken from an MRP model either, unless there's another one not publicly accessible. Unless they publish tables I'm leaning towards completely made up. Almost as fake as the NE Somerset poll Layla Moran retweeted! It showed the Lib Dems and Tories equal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2019 22:24:05 GMT
Tbf this has actually been in a newspaper
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Post by andrewp on Nov 13, 2019 22:31:25 GMT
In the Labour seats polling in the Times, it manages to pick 20 Labour seats and forecast narrow Labour holds in all of them eg
Grimsby Lab 30, Con 30, Brexit 25 Rotherham Lab 33, Brexit 25, Con 23
If the Conservatives got within 10% of winning in Rotherham ( which they obviously won’t) then they would surely be winning Grimsby quite comfortably. And likewise if they don’t win Grimsby then aren’t going to be closeish in Rotherham.
very suspect
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2019 22:40:24 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 21, 2019 12:30:18 GMT
If that's anywhere near accurate, that's an absolutely stunning figure - a double digit swing! If a similar swing was seen on the other side of the Humber (which is just as pro-Leave), Hull West and Hessle would be ultra-marginal, and Hull East would be fairly close.
Also, whilst there will be churn, the Brexit Party appear to be gaining votes from Labour in seats like this. Farage's current tactic (almost exclusively going after Labour or former Labour leavers) seems to be working.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2019 12:38:45 GMT
Not great figures for us certainly.
However its both a week old, and yet again only 400 people - is it really impossible for Survation to manage better than that?
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
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Post by myth11 on Nov 21, 2019 15:57:34 GMT
Not great figures for us certainly. However its both a week old, and yet again only 400 people - is it really impossible for Survation to manage better than that? I knows its a poll but it seems to confirm,s the worries of some of the old labour heads in my area who think they are in danger of losing a third to a half of labours 2017 votes in the 60%+ leave seats and the cons are standing still or even gaining a little .
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Post by formerfifer on Nov 21, 2019 17:14:57 GMT
Anyone heard of an outfit called polls.uk? I stumbled upon their twitter feed earlier where they are presenting a selection of constituency polls. From what I can gather, this isn't an actual polling organisation but are instead financial analysts. They present the raw data without performing any weighting etc. so some of the results they are portraying look out of kilter with other polling organisations not least because they are predicting a number of Brexit Party gains - 24 in total.
The sample sizes across all of the constituencies is over 1,000. Given the other constituency polls we have seen from Survation have only had around 400, the cynic in me is wondering how they are able to achieve such a large sample size given I assume that there is nobody in the background commissioning the polls.
I'm taking the numbers with a bucketful of salt but I thought I'd present a few for the group's enjoyment.
Hull West & Hessle. Prediction: Brexit Party Gain
Sample size: 1145 Date polled: 18-19/11/19
Conservative: 21.5%
Labour: 25.2%
Lib Dems: 2.3%
Brexit Party: 49.1%
Green Party: 1.9%
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford. Prediction: Brexit Party Gain
Sample size: 1477 Date polled: 16-17-18/11/19
Conservative: 21.1%
Labour: 22.9%
Lib Dems: 2.3%
Brexit Party: 51.8%
Others: 1.9%
Birmingham Yardley. Sample size: 1105 Date polled: 15/11/19
Conservative: 16.7%
Labour: 33.8%
Lib Dems: 18.6%
Brexit Party: 30.1%
Green Party: 0.8%
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 21, 2019 17:31:38 GMT
Those look seriously... questionable/dodgy/out of line with reality.
I doubt the Brexit Party did much better than that in those seats in May's Euros when they got more than 30% of the vote nationally. Currently they're crashing below 5% in a lot of polls, so I just don't see it...
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