Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Nov 7, 2019 15:21:11 GMT
Coakers personal vote is holding up here in a city where the Conservatives have made little progress of late - so no surprises here. It is more evidence that this Conservative majority is going to be hard to achieve.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 7, 2019 15:36:36 GMT
They did not win gedling in 2015 when the cons won a majority and if the cons win Bassetlaw its no longer a crucial marginal.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 7, 2019 15:49:59 GMT
Coakers personal vote is holding up here in a city where the Conservatives have made little progress of late - so no surprises here. It is more evidence that this Conservative majority is going to be hard to achieve. The cons need to net gain 9 seats on 2017 to get to 326 however depending on how well SF do 320 could be the de facto majority number which need a net gain of 3 on 2017.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 7, 2019 15:52:05 GMT
Coakers personal vote is holding up here in a city where the Conservatives have made little progress of late - so no surprises here. It is more evidence that this Conservative majority is going to be hard to achieve. The cons need to net gain 9 seats on 2017 to get to 326 however depending on how well SF do 320 could be the de facto majority number which need a net gain of 3 on 2017. Net gain that is, at least some losses to SNP and LDs seem likely.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 7, 2019 15:53:38 GMT
They did not win gedling in 2015 when the cons won a majority and if the cons win Bassetlaw its no longer a crucial marginal. They also didn't Bassetlaw in 2015.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 7, 2019 15:59:47 GMT
The Tories don't need to gain Gedling, especially with Coaker still defending.
Bassetlaw, on the other hand, is wide open, and therefore a pretty tempting target.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 7, 2019 16:04:02 GMT
Bearing in mind expected losses to the Lib Dems and SNP - maybe 30 or more, the Tories probably do need Gedling, and loads of other Labour seats which don't seem particularly likely.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 7, 2019 16:15:17 GMT
Bearing in mind expected losses to the Lib Dems and SNP - maybe 30 or more, the Tories probably do need Gedling, and loads of other Labour seats which don't seem particularly likely. They can win a majority without Gedling, but if they shed as many seats to the Lib Dems and the SNP as you suggest then it would serve as a pretty useful indicator of Tory prospects overall, Coaker or no Coaker.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 7, 2019 16:15:33 GMT
When the Labour candidate is known the Labour vote may go down of course. Something that applies to all parties on occasion.
The "anti personal vote".
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 7, 2019 16:19:18 GMT
Bearing in mind expected losses to the Lib Dems and SNP - maybe 30 or more, the Tories probably do need Gedling, and loads of other Labour seats which don't seem particularly likely. On the numbers alone, Gedling is the 43rd Conservative target if you only consider Labour seats worth targeting (though they'll surely try for North Norfolk, perhaps Eastbourne, and a bunch of Scottish seats where there's plenty of room to increase their tactical fraction vs the SNP). Assuming NI stays as it is (in terms of SF seats), they only need 4 gains (net) on their 2017 result to get a working majority. They're still home and dry without Gedling, and that's not considering any nominally safer seats in which popular Labour incumbents are stepping aside.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2019 16:22:31 GMT
Labour have done incredibly well in Gedling in recent times given the way neighbouring boroughs have swung heavily to the Tories. This place has gone the opposite direction. 2.5% swing to tories is rather low given the national swing and the Workington poll with a pretty big swing
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 7, 2019 16:24:21 GMT
Bearing in mind expected losses to the Lib Dems and SNP - maybe 30 or more, the Tories probably do need Gedling, and loads of other Labour seats which don't seem particularly likely. On the numbers alone, Gedling is the 43rd Conservative target if you only consider Labour seats worth targeting (though they'll surely try for North Norfolk, perhaps Eastbourne, and a bunch of Scottish seats where there's plenty of room to increase their tactical fraction vs the SNP). Assuming NI stays as it is (in terms of SF seats), they only need 4 gains (net) on their 2017 result to get a working majority. They're still home and dry without Gedling, and that's not considering any nominally safer seats in which popular Labour incumbents are stepping aside. they could easily win quite a decent majority without Gedling.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 7, 2019 16:28:43 GMT
Bearing in mind expected losses to the Lib Dems and SNP - maybe 30 or more, the Tories probably do need Gedling, and loads of other Labour seats which don't seem particularly likely. On the numbers alone, Gedling is the 43rd Conservative target if you only consider Labour seats worth targeting (though they'll surely try for North Norfolk, perhaps Eastbourne, and a bunch of Scottish seats where there's plenty of room to increase their tactical fraction vs the SNP). Assuming NI stays as it is (in terms of SF seats), they only need 4 gains (net) on their 2017 result to get a working majority. They're still home and dry without Gedling, and that's not considering any nominally safer seats in which popular Labour incumbents are stepping aside. There's also a bunch of seats on paper less safe than Gedling that are much less likely Tory gains as well e.g. Enfield Southgate, East Lothian. I presume you're thinking of Bassetlaw, 45th on the list, with the incumbent stepping down. That might be possible on a good night, but anything beyond that, into 10%+ majorities, is a huge stretch.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2019 16:35:26 GMT
Best of Britain has Tories ahead in Gedling by 7
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 7, 2019 16:43:21 GMT
Best of Britain has Tories ahead in Gedling by 7 Better than nothing, but trust this more. MRP at the national scale helps alleviate the issue, but ultimately that still works out to a smaller confidence interval/sample size for voters in Gedling.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 7, 2019 19:39:59 GMT
Labour have done incredibly well in Gedling in recent times given the way neighbouring boroughs have swung heavily to the Tories. This place has gone the opposite direction. 2.5% swing to tories is rather low given the national swing and the Workington poll with a pretty big swing Gedling is suburban Nottingham which had been perfectly fine for Labour. Its the area further away from Nottingham which has been quite atrocious for Labour in recent elections (ex coal mining, rural, increasingly middle class commuter belt etc).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 7, 2019 20:25:54 GMT
Labour have done incredibly well in Gedling in recent times given the way neighbouring boroughs have swung heavily to the Tories. This place has gone the opposite direction. 2.5% swing to tories is rather low given the national swing and the Workington poll with a pretty big swing Gedling is suburban Nottingham which had been perfectly fine for Labour. Its the area further away from Nottingham which has been quite atrocious for Labour in recent elections (ex coal mining, rural, increasingly middle class commuter belt etc). Gedling has been filling up with young professionals in the past few years as well.
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Nov 7, 2019 22:01:26 GMT
Coakers personal vote is holding up here in a city where the Conservatives have made little progress of late - so no surprises here. It is more evidence that this Conservative majority is going to be hard to achieve. The cons need to net gain 9 seats on 2017 to get to 326 however depending on how well SF do 320 could be the de facto majority number which need a net gain of 3 on 2017. But they're are going to be losing seats to the LD's and the SNP, so a net 9 gain might need 30+ gains I'm not sure what lead they will need to achieve that majority - maybe 8-10 points, which may be too much to achieve. I
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 7, 2019 23:12:07 GMT
The cons need to net gain 9 seats on 2017 to get to 326 however depending on how well SF do 320 could be the de facto majority number which need a net gain of 3 on 2017. But they're are going to be losing seats to the LD's and the SNP. I'm not sure what lead they will need to achieve that majority - maybe 8-10 points, which may be too much to achieve. Its early so things are likely to change and its UNS but on last polls A 8% swing con to lib dem gains the libs 11 con seats and a 5% swing con to SNP gains the nats 8 con seats. A 3% swing lab to con gains the cons 29 labour seats a net gain of 10 seats. A 2.5% swing lab to con gains the cons 24 labour seats a net gain of 5 seats.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 12, 2019 11:42:25 GMT
The Sun is claiming that 'white van man snob' Emily Thornberry is one course to lose her seat to the Lib Dems according to internal Labour polling. The constituency was safe as houses in 2017. It did vote Lib Dem over Labour by 31% to 26% at the euro elections, but Labour are up 14% nationally (i.e. doubled) compared to that election while the Lib Dems are down about 5%. So the Lib Dems are probably not ahead.
Chances of "internal Labour poll" being completely made up?
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