Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 21:44:33 GMT
Report on BBC (or was it Sky? flicking between them) that UKIP don't think they've done as well in Labour areas as they were hoping.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 21:49:02 GMT
Eric Pickles saying he'd like a Tory MP to be elected, but fears he'll be disappointed (on QT)
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 21:53:42 GMT
Report on BBC (or was it Sky? flicking between them) that UKIP don't think they've done as well in Labour areas as they were hoping. Or are UKIP simply learning the concept of expectation management? Probably. Carswell has from the start said it was going to be a tough fight with old time UKIP people simply saying that they would win. I suspect that the press are listening to Carswell. It was fairly clear that he briefed Guido, although I can't find that story. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 21:55:17 GMT
Kellner reckons it will be Carswell by 10,000.
UKIP's new expectations management department must hate that.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:02:44 GMT
Imprortant point: 50% turnout.
Unimportant point: Patrick O'Flynn is making a mess of it on Question Time. But then again BBC Question Time seems to attract a majority Labour audience even in north Essex. Bless em.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:10:19 GMT
UKIP MEP Tim Akers on Newsnight calling Clacton for UKIP.
Being a bit cagey about the Labour vote when challenged on Labour not going over to UKIP.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:59:34 GMT
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:07:40 GMT
Twitter, which exists to make Wikipedia look reliable starting to come out with rumours that Clacton is going to be closer than predicted.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:19:54 GMT
Carswell claiming half his vote came from Labour according to Sky. Fairly sure that Labour will have a better result than that.
Farage drinking bottled water and not smoking on Sky.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:26:22 GMT
Probably. Carswell has from the start said it was going to be a tough fight with old time UKIP people simply saying that they would win. I suspect that the press are listening to Carswell. It was fairly clear that he briefed Guido, although I can't find that story. Oh don't be so fucking ridiculous. Paul Staines is a personal friend of mine and if you think that a briefing by Carswell is going to have any effect you are deluded. Paul is a libertarian - Carswell is a libertarian. You work it out I just said that he briefed Staines. There was a "sources close to Carswell" story, which means that Carswell told him (or one of his team). Don't know why you need to get defensive. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:30:27 GMT
Differential turnout in Brightlingsea (Roger Lord's ward) - 36.5%. There's an overlap, but not all the ward is in Clacton.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:42:42 GMT
Michael Dugher claiming that Labour could grow their share of the vote from sources in the count. Don't know if he's bluffing as the polls show Labour way down from 2010.
Tories look to be doing (genuinely) better than the polls. If Labour are also doing significantly better than the Clacton polls then the UKIP majority will be small.
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neilm
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Clacton
Oct 9, 2014 23:44:22 GMT
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Post by neilm on Oct 9, 2014 23:44:22 GMT
Differential turnout in Brightlingsea (Roger Lord's ward) - 36.5%. There's an overlap, but not all the ward is in Clacton. Yes, I was told around 35% earlier. I didn't expect much higher. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:44:53 GMT
Turnout announced as 51.2% Down 13% from GE.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:45:20 GMT
Michael Dugher claiming that Labour could grow their share of the vote from sources in the count. Don't know if he's bluffing as the polls show Labour way down from 2010. Tories look to be doing (genuinely) better than the polls. If Labour are also doing significantly better than the Clacton polls then the UKIP majority will be small. Labour have just briefed the Guardian that they are at around 12. So, bluffing. |
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neilm
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Clacton
Oct 9, 2014 23:45:57 GMT
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Post by neilm on Oct 9, 2014 23:45:57 GMT
Michael Dugher claiming that Labour could grow their share of the vote from sources in the count. Don't know if he's bluffing as the polls show Labour way down from 2010. Tories look to be doing (genuinely) better than the polls. If Labour are also doing significantly better than the Clacton polls then the UKIP majority will be small. From what I've heard and seen, the 'shy Tory' factor seems to have been at work. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 9, 2014 23:46:16 GMT
Backgrounder:
Electorate is 69,118.
Verified votes were 35,386.
Returning officer is Nicholas S. Charrington (High Sheriff of Essex).
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neilm
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Clacton
Oct 9, 2014 23:48:13 GMT
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Post by neilm on Oct 9, 2014 23:48:13 GMT
Aah, I didn't realise Clacton was a county constituency. Will the High Sheriff be doing the announcing?
I miss mayors doing that.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:49:59 GMT
Michael Dugher claiming that Labour could grow their share of the vote from sources in the count. Don't know if he's bluffing as the polls show Labour way down from 2010. Tories look to be doing (genuinely) better than the polls. If Labour are also doing significantly better than the Clacton polls then the UKIP majority will be small. Labour have just briefed the Guardian that they are at around 12. So, bluffing. Although the stay at homes may have disproportiantely been Labour and Lib Dem voters, but a good chunk of Labour voters will have switched straight to UKIP. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:52:59 GMT
Turnout announced as 51.2% Down 13% from GE. John Curtice says its the lowest drop of any by-election in the parliament. |
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