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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 8, 2014 11:43:00 GMT
But then, there probably wasn't anything that the Conservatives could have done which would stop Carswell winning. The die was cast by the fact of his changing parties, and the nature of the seat.
Carswell is interesting as he isn't in the UKIP populist mode. He's much more of a thinker than a rabble-rouser. Mark Reckless strikes me as being more like the typical UKIP approach.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 11:43:56 GMT
But it's probably as close to a gem as the Tories are going to get. Not much of a gem and will not stop a victory for Carswell and UKIP tomorrow night/Friday morning. which was the point......  |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2014 11:45:43 GMT
Have to agree that if this is the "best" the Tories can do, its a squib. Back in 1981, many of those who formed the SDP breakaway were pledging lifelong loyalty to Labour just weeks and even days before their defection. Carswell (and Reckless, for that matter) was never going to say "yeah, I'm really seriously thinking of joining UKIP". That's not how it works  |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 8, 2014 12:32:56 GMT
Have to agree that if this is the "best" the Tories can do, its a squib. Back in 1981, many of those who formed the SDP breakaway were pledging lifelong loyalty to Labour just weeks and even days before their defection. Carswell (and Reckless, for that matter) was never going to say "yeah, I'm really seriously thinking of joining UKIP". That's not how it works He could have kept his trap shut or been 'unavailable for comment'. And then they is wonder as to why politicians are not trusted? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2014 12:52:08 GMT
Which would have of course been interpreted as "they're not denying it - you can draw your own conclusions".
I understand the trust point, but this really is one of those instances where politicians can't win IMO.
Defection almost inevitably involves a certain amount of subterfuge, that's just how it is.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 8, 2014 15:43:15 GMT
Have to agree that if this is the "best" the Tories can do, its a squib. Back in 1981, many of those who formed the SDP breakaway were pledging lifelong loyalty to Labour just weeks and even days before their defection. Carswell (and Reckless, for that matter) was never going to say "yeah, I'm really seriously thinking of joining UKIP". That's not how it works He could have kept his trap shut or been 'unavailable for comment'. And then they is wonder as to why politicians are not trusted? I don't suppose Shaun Woodward gave the Tories any warning he was thinking of defecting to Labour. Neither do I suppose David Bannerman told UKIP he was considering going over to the Tories. What exactly was Carswell supposed to say in the case "Hey Douglas, do you think this letter attacking UKIP is OK?" "I can't really comment about UKIP right now, can't tell you why" If Carwsell or Reckless had said anything to their local associations that had even hinted they were thinking of going over to UKIP then local party leaders would have been straight on the phone to Conservative Central Office and the Tory propaganda machine would have started to get to work on them possibly before they had even made a final decision. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 8, 2014 15:58:28 GMT
touchy
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 8, 2014 16:23:01 GMT
The recent book on Reg Prentice, "Crossing the Floor", shows that he did give considerable indication of his dissatisfaction with party politics in the year before he defected; Geoff Horn repeatedly refers to him as being in effect an Independent MP in this period (although he still had the Labour whip). I don't have the book to hand but I remember a reference to a TV interview with Robin Day in which he was quite open about the fact he was considering his position. In fact it was largely down to Patrick Cormack befriending him that Prentice chose to join the Conservatives instead of going Independent.
And here's what Alan Howarth said in his last Parliamentary speech as a Conservative: "My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister has held out a vision to the country of a classless society and a politics of tolerance. We may not yet have entered that promised land but I believe that we have moved a long way. Our society is far less hierarchical and we suffer far less from intolerance and cruel taboos. So long as my party wishes to continue to pursue that destination, I shall travel happily with it."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 16:32:56 GMT
Of course no-one is going to say they are about to defect from one party to another. What got up the noses of people in my party over Mark Reckless in particular was the fact that he timed his announcement for the eve of our conference, a la Alan Howarth. I suppose it could have been coincidental but it makes one wonder how long he was planning it.
Douglas Carswell by contrast left as soon as he decided to leave, which is the principal reason why he didn't incur as much wrath and bitterness from our side.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 8, 2014 17:48:28 GMT
He could have kept his trap shut or been 'unavailable for comment'. And then they is wonder as to why politicians are not trusted? I don't suppose Shaun Woodward gave the Tories any warning he was thinking of defecting to Labour. Neither do I suppose David Bannerman told UKIP he was considering going over to the Tories. What exactly was Carswell supposed to say in the case "Hey Douglas, do you think this letter attacking UKIP is OK?" "I can't really comment about UKIP right now, can't tell you why" If Carwsell or Reckless had said anything to their local associations that had even hinted they were thinking of going over to UKIP then local party leaders would have been straight on the phone to Conservative Central Office and the Tory propaganda machine would have started to get to work on them possibly before they had even made a final decision. Make an excuse and leave would be my advice. Your excuses are rather too feeble. When you are in a hole. Stop digging. |
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Post by Devonian on Oct 8, 2014 18:10:59 GMT
I don't suppose Shaun Woodward gave the Tories any warning he was thinking of defecting to Labour. Neither do I suppose David Bannerman told UKIP he was considering going over to the Tories. What exactly was Carswell supposed to say in the case "Hey Douglas, do you think this letter attacking UKIP is OK?" "I can't really comment about UKIP right now, can't tell you why" If Carwsell or Reckless had said anything to their local associations that had even hinted they were thinking of going over to UKIP then local party leaders would have been straight on the phone to Conservative Central Office and the Tory propaganda machine would have started to get to work on them possibly before they had even made a final decision. Make an excuse and leave would be my advice. Your excuses are rather too feeble. When you are in a hole. Stop digging. Of course it doesn't look good which is why the Tories are going on about. The fact remains that any MP or MEP planning a defection cannot be 'neutral' whilst they consider their options and make their plans. They have to be fully a part of the Party they are a member of until they actually make the move to leave it. saying 'I'm probably going to be changing parties soon might be more honest but simply isn't practical. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2014 21:48:18 GMT
Of course no-one is going to say they are about to defect from one party to another. What got up the noses of people in my party over Mark Reckless in particular was the fact that he timed his announcement for the eve of our conference, a la Alan Howarth. I suppose it could have been coincidental but it makes one wonder how long he was planning it. Douglas Carswell by contrast left as soon as he decided to leave, which is the principal reason why he didn't incur as much wrath and bitterness from our side. I also suspect that it was because he was first and Tory high command hoped that he would be the only one. With Reckless they suspected that there were more so they had to be the nasty party. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2014 22:04:38 GMT
Have to agree that if this is the "best" the Tories can do, its a squib. Back in 1981, many of those who formed the SDP breakaway were pledging lifelong loyalty to Labour just weeks and even days before their defection. Carswell (and Reckless, for that matter) was never going to say "yeah, I'm really seriously thinking of joining UKIP". That's not how it works I got the impression that Reckless and Carswell were dropping hints that UKIP were a better fit for the Tories than the Liberals were. But then again I wasn't particularly paying attention until Carswell defected. When you look at Hannan, Tebbit, Goldsmith, Bone, Kelly, Rees-Mogg and Dorris there are quite a few hints at the moment. And those are just the ones from the top of my head. I still suspect that there will be a Tory defector surprisingly soon and it will not be a usual suspect (itself a surprisingly large pool). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2014 22:10:59 GMT
Have to agree that if this is the "best" the Tories can do, its a squib. Back in 1981, many of those who formed the SDP breakaway were pledging lifelong loyalty to Labour just weeks and even days before their defection. Carswell (and Reckless, for that matter) was never going to say "yeah, I'm really seriously thinking of joining UKIP". That's not how it works I got the impression that Reckless and Carswell were dropping hints that UKIP were a better fit for the Tories than the Liberals were. But then again I wasn't particularly paying attention until Carswell defected. When you look at Hannan, Tebbit, Goldsmith, Bone, Kelly, Rees-Mogg and Dorris there are quite a few hints at the moment. And those are just the ones from the top of my head. I still suspect that there will be a Tory defector surprisingly soon and it will not be a usual suspect (itself a surprisingly large pool). Dorries would not be a useful addition to any party. She thinks she's the new Thatcher, but she's not even up to being the new Helen Clark (and I mean the Peterborough one). |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 8, 2014 22:16:10 GMT
I got the impression that Reckless and Carswell were dropping hints that UKIP were a better fit for the Tories than the Liberals were. But then again I wasn't particularly paying attention until Carswell defected. When you look at Hannan, Tebbit, Goldsmith, Bone, Kelly, Rees-Mogg and Dorris there are quite a few hints at the moment. And those are just the ones from the top of my head. I still suspect that there will be a Tory defector surprisingly soon and it will not be a usual suspect (itself a surprisingly large pool). Dorries would not be a useful addition to any party. She thinks she's the new Thatcher, but she's not even up to being the new Helen Clark (and I mean the Peterborough one). And the spelling of Dorries is proof that this was on the top of my head. UKIP would lose that seat. They have a chance with Reckless, but it's proving to be tough. Dorries doesn't seem to be that assiduous as a constituency MP and her seat is hardly left behind. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 15:59:22 GMT
"Roger Helmer @rogerhelmermep 21m21 minutes ago
When the assistant in the petrol station in Clacton asks how it's going and wishes you well, you know something special is happening."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 16:07:38 GMT
"Roger Helmer @rogerhelmermep 21m21 minutes ago
When the assistant in the petrol station in Clacton asks how it's going and wishes you well, you know something special is happening." No, it just means that the assistant in the petrol station is voting UKIP. Its when the good wishes are too may to mention, that's when something special is happening. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 16:36:39 GMT
Two interesting facts from LabourHistoryGroup: "Labour History Group @labourhistory 2h2 hours ago
@johnrentoul Labour's candidate in Clacton 50 years at the 1964 general election was David Winnick, now only sitting Lab MP elected in 1960s"
@johnrentoul Shirley Williams was Labour's candidate in the last by-election in Clacton, 60 years ago: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harwich_by-election,_1954 …"twitter.com/LabourHistory |
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neilm
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Oct 9, 2014 16:40:02 GMT
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Post by neilm on Oct 9, 2014 16:40:02 GMT
Oh no, that means they'll roll her out on the TV for hours this evening.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 21:42:00 GMT
Any news from Clacton, gossip from the knocking up even, news from the count?
BBC Question Time has Harman admitting that she expects Labour to lose votes to Carswell.
Edit: Now Eric Pickles has conceded for the Tories (I know he can't actually do that, but still he's a cabinet member)
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