Clacton

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Douglas Carswell is to seek re-election on joining the UK Independence Party.

[Harry Hayfield]

Aug 28, 2014 10:19:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Douglas Carswell is to seek re-election on joining the UK Independence Party.

I am so glad that David is on the ball here, to have a defection from Con to UKIP at the Westminster level is not that strange (I seem to recall that Castle Point had the same thing during the last Parliament) but a defection by-election is so rare I think we have to go back to Mitcham and Morden (in 1982 if memory serves)?

[Andrew_S]

Useless fact about Clacton: the singer Sade (Helen Adu) grew up in the constituency. Her family lived in Holland-on-Sea, an eastern suburb of the town.

[neilm]

Aug 28, 2014 10:24:36 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Aug 28, 2014 10:19:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Douglas Carswell is to seek re-election on joining the UK Independence Party.

I am so glad that David is on the ball here, to have a defection from Con to UKIP at the Westminster level is not that strange (I seem to recall that Castle Point had the same thing during the last Parliament) but a defection by-election is so rare I think we have to go back to Mitcham and Morden (in 1982 if memory serves)?

When was the last 'resignation re election' before David Davis?

[LDCaerdydd]

Northen Irish MPs in 1985.

Before that Mitcham in 1982

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 28, 2014 10:34:57 GMT neilm said:

Aug 28, 2014 10:24:36 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

I am so glad that David is on the ball here, to have a defection from Con to UKIP at the Westminster level is not that strange (I seem to recall that Castle Point had the same thing during the last Parliament) but a defection by-election is so rare I think we have to go back to Mitcham and Morden (in 1982 if memory serves)?

When was the last 'resignation re election' before David Davis?

The last MP to resign to seek re-election before David Davis was Bruce Douglas-Mann, who did so in 1982 on defecting from Labour to SDP. He lost.

Before then there was Dick Taverne (Lincoln), on leaving the Labour Party. Resigned in October 1972; byelection not until 1 March 1973. He won re-election.

Before Taverne it was Sir Richard Acland (Gravesend), over the H-bomb; he intended to have a byelection but was overtaken by the dissolution of Parliament for the 1955 general election.

[neilm]

Thanks.

Hearing speculation that Coalition MPs will vote down the writ. That would be spectacularly stupid if done.

[Andrew_S]

Most recent local elections were the Essex CC elections in May 2013:

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDIySUJiWThFM3gxcWEyNll4Rkx0Mnc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

[Andrew_S]

This area is in the Clacton constituency:

"How Jaywick Sands became the most deprived area in the UK
New documentary Jaywick Escapes casts light on a part of Essex that has changed from a holiday retreat to a rundown refuge for troubled Londoners"

www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2012/jul/01/jaywick-sands-most-deprived-uk

"Welcome to Misery-by-sea: Dilapidated homes, boarded-up shops and rubbish-strewn streets. Why Jaywick Sands is offically the most deprived village in England"

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2303489/East-Jaywick-Life-seaside-deprived-village-England.html

[ColinJ]

Aug 28, 2014 10:42:30 GMT neilm said:

Thanks.

Hearing speculation that Coalition MPs will vote down the writ. That would be spectacularly stupid if done.

Well, you could imagine that MPs from all the major parties may decline to give UKIP the oxygen of publicity that arises from a by-election by voting against the writ. (Or would it create more if they did so?!?) Their argument could be that the by-election is a 'stunt' and that Clacton's lack of MP is down to Carswell.

[neilm]

There are ridiculous sounding suggestions that the Chancellor may refuse to appoint him to the Manor of Northstead. Which would be an interesting precedent. That would backfire also.

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2014 10:42:30 GMT neilm said:

Thanks.

Hearing speculation that Coalition MPs will vote down the writ. That would be spectacularly stupid if done.

& probably guarantee UKIP a (delayed) victory.

[Deleted]

No, he has I believe made a terrible decision (the joining UKIP bit more than the leaving the tories) and lumped himself with profoundly illiberal folk, but an honourable one and he has been a gentleman about calling the by-election.

We must defeat him and defeat him fair and square. Nothing else will do. This is a crunch moment for this government.

[neilm]

I guess it's a possibility that the Conservatives could start a campaign now and move the writ after the conference season to stretch UKIPs resources but I don't know what the new rules say. That could also backfire.

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2014 11:23:33 GMT neilm said:

I guess it's a possibility that the Conservatives could start a campaign now and move the writ after the conference season to stretch UKIPs resources but I don't know what the new rules say. That could also backfire.

Would that even be delayed - surely it would have to be around or slightly after conference season?

[neilm]

The rules have changed on when elections are held after the writ. Newark was the first one but I guess it depends on when the writ is moved for the timescale to begin.

[markgoodair]

Interestingly there was no UKIP candidate in Clacton at the last General election,

[East Anglian Lefty]

Some quick bits of geographical/psephological background:

The Clacton constituency was first created at the 2010 election, but almost all of it was previously in the Harwich constituency. Harwich fell to Labour in 1997 and was held in 2001, but was narrowly gained by Carswell in 2005. The boundary changes for 2010 substantially improved the Tory position by removing Harwich and adding villages to the north and west of Clacton.

The seat covers the southern half of the Tendring peninsula and is centred on the town of Clacton. Clacton itself contains around half of the constituency's electorate on a restrictive definition, or two-thirds if you include the linked settlements of Holland-on-Sea and Jaywick. Along the coast to the east you have the towns of Frinton-on-Sea and Walton-on-Sea together with the village of Kirby Cross, which together account for around 15,000 voters. The remainder of the electorate is to be found in three wards to the north of these urban areas, covering the villages of Thorpe-le-Soken, Weeley and St. Osyth.

Clacton grew up in the late 19th century as a planned seaside resort, which has remained the bedrock of its economy to this day. As a result, it's had its share of economic problems in recent decades. The low cost of living made it popular with retirees and more recently with those priced out of London, but the local economy isn't exactly bustling. Broadly speaking the eastern and southern sides of the town are the most upmarket, with more deprivation to the north and west. Jaywick gets the headlines but there's significant levels of poverty in Rush Green and Alton Park too. These are Labour's best areas in the seat, although at present we hold only two wards, Alton Park and Golf Green.

The jokes about Frinton are well known, so I won't bother repeating them here. Essentially it's a small and notably conservative town, historically known as an upmarket resort. It's no longer so exclusive (it now has a fish and chip shop and a pub, and the fabled gates were removed by Network Rail a few years back) but still very pleasant. Walton is its more proletarian neighbour and has been competitive in the past, but was a fairly comfortable Conservative victory in 2011.

The rural areas tend to back independent councillors, but at a general election I would imagine they vote much as you'd expect rural Essex to.

The constituency is covered by four complete county council divisions and parts of two others. The two that are only partially in the seat were won by UKIP, but the bulk of the electorate of both divisions is in Harwich & North Essex. Tendring First took Clacton East, whilst the Tories won the other three divisions. UKIP ranged from 25-35%, the Tories from 25-40% and Clacton North was the only division Labour got close in, taking 25% and second place by one vote.

[neilm]

Perhaps a contender for parliamentary seat outside the mets and London with the most railway stations. In the top ten in any case I'd have thought.

EDIT: Actually no, I only make it seven. Nine if Alresford and Great Bentley are in the seat which I'm not sure they are.

[East Anglian Lefty]

They aren't.