maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Aug 27, 2014 7:40:04 GMT
Orford BC - Carfax - Labour resigned because of increasing workload (she is head of a department in an university)
2012-2016 term
2014: Grn 483, Lab 448, Con 315, LD 276, Loony 45
2012: Lab 288, Grn 235, LD 207, Con 159
2010: LD 985, Grn 565, Con 535, Lab 535
2008: LD 375, Con 284, Grn 208, Lab 182
2006: Grn 327, LD 304, Con 225, Lab 146
2004by: Grn 203, LD 175, Lab 161, Con 71
2004: LD 479, Con 236, Lab 185, Grn 185
2002: Grn 420/290, LD 355/341, Lab 211/208, Con 153/144
Maryam Ahmed (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Kenrick Bird (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Tony Brett (Liberal Democrat)
Alex Hollingsworth (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate)
Richard Scrase (Green Party)
Shepway BC - Folkestone Harvey Central - Conservative resigned after a newspaper investigated a £17,000 debt he owned
2011: Con 539/481, Lab 388/328, LD 233, Ind 220
2007: Con 581/487, LD 465/400
2005by: Con 409, Lab 237, LD 120
2003: LD 394/356, Con 386/326, Lab 235/161, Firefighters Against Cuts 36
David Callahan (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Seth Cruse (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
David Horton (The Green Party)
Tom McNeice (Liberal Democrat)
Wendy Mitchell (Labour Party Candidate)
Rodica Wheeler (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Surrey Heath BC - Old Dean - Labour died
2011: Lab 553/526, Con 337/324, UKIP 130, LD 91/51
2007: Lab 435/382, Con 368/352, LD 157/101, UKIP 152
2003: Lab 502/391, Con 311/310, LD 62/59
Heather Gerred (The Labour Party Candidate)
Eddie Hill (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Max Nelson (The Conservative Party Candidate)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 27, 2014 7:48:56 GMT
Carfax is a strange ward and one of that small number of wards where I have been an elector. It'll be hard to call but I'm going to go for a narrow Labour hold over Green.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 27, 2014 7:52:47 GMT
Carfax is a strange ward and one of that small number of wards where I have been an elector. It'll be hard to call but I'm going to go for a narrow Labour hold over Green. Those results are really indicative of either 'students present' and 'students not present' or a near total concern with candidate over any form of party support. What is the nature of the ward? Why does it swing about in such a manner? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 27, 2014 8:21:17 GMT
Note the Labour candidate in Oxford is Alex Hollingsworth, a former Leader of the Labour group (councillor for Headington 1994-2002, Barton and Sandhills 2002-06). He was the candidate in May.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 27, 2014 8:21:53 GMT
Carfax is a strange ward and one of that small number of wards where I have been an elector. It'll be hard to call but I'm going to go for a narrow Labour hold over Green. Those results are really indicative of either 'students present' and 'students not present' or a near total concern with candidate over any form of party support. What is the nature of the ward? Why does it swing about in such a manner? To make it even stranger, the LD councillor elected in 2002 and 2004 was the Conservative candidate in 2008, which could explain their unexpected 2nd place then. From 2002 to 2010, it remained a Green-LD split ward. GE turnout in 2010 would have helped the LDs take the Green seat, but then the coalition really hurt them, allowing Labour to come through in 2012, which probably ranks as a big missed opportunity for the Greens that we then made amends for this year. If we win this time, it will be the first time in 12 years of trying we've managed to hold both seats. I'd probably put Labour as marginal favourites though. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 27, 2014 13:08:46 GMT
Carfax is a strange ward and one of that small number of wards where I have been an elector. It'll be hard to call but I'm going to go for a narrow Labour hold over Green. Those results are really indicative of either 'students present' and 'students not present' or a near total concern with candidate over any form of party support. What is the nature of the ward? Why does it swing about in such a manner? It sometimes seems to defeat logic, to be truthful. Labour are definitely stronger in the city as a whole, and so are always in the mix, the Lib Dem performance waxes and wanes as Tony Otim points out, and students not really voting arguably hurts the Tories most, because amongst the student body there were traditionally vast numbers of Conservatives and Labour activists and not many Greens and Libs (this is 2003-2007). Conversely, the area is very Green amongst the locals, and was the home patch of one of the Greens' leading ideologues, the late Mike Woodin who was a fellow at Balliol College. He was the councillor when I turned up, and not long afterwards a former student Matt Sellwood took neighbouring Holywell, and it looked like the Greens would end up having a similar breakthrough to that which they achieved in Brighton. The swing to Labour might have been helped by Carfax moving into Oxford East (if I recall correctly)- OE Labour are very active, whereas OW& Abingdon Labour might as well have not existed. I used to attend a lot of student Labour gatherings (quite common amongst the Tory Left there in those days, and reciprocated by the Labour Club Right), and Oxford East Labour were always in, including Andrew Smith when he was MP. Probably the ideal place to point out that Mike Woodin was a big loss to the Greens locally and nationally. Whether you agree with the Greens or not, some of his writing was very good and made a lot of sense. |
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Post by aintree92 on Aug 28, 2014 21:49:39 GMT
Heather Gerred the Labour candidate in the Old Dean by-election in Surrey Heath is the daughter of Margaret Moher whose sad death earlier this summer caused the by-election.
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Post by David Ashforth on Aug 30, 2014 11:08:39 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 31, 2014 17:29:03 GMT
I note that the Carfax Ward includes the Bodleian, the Ashmolean and the coach park.
Bliss!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2014 7:21:03 GMT
I note that the Carfax Ward includes the Bodleian, the Ashmolean and the coach park. Bliss! It must also be Britain's most Anglo-Catholic ward! |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 1, 2014 9:27:03 GMT
I note that the Carfax Ward includes the Bodleian, the Ashmolean and the coach park. Bliss! It must also be Britain's most Anglo-Catholic ward! Wot! More than the Biretta Belt of Barnsley?? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 1, 2014 18:40:17 GMT
I'd be interested in seeing what the turnout is in Carfax.
There are hardly any normal people, I mean 'permanent residents', and the first week in September is quite a time to have a byelection.
I imagine this may be deliberate on the part of one of the parties.
This ward is somewhat similar to the former Central, which when it was first fought in 1979 (on the day of the general election that brought Mrs Thatcher to power) elected three Conservatives.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 2, 2014 7:39:42 GMT
Central was the ward in which I cast my first vote.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2014 10:26:42 GMT
Central was the ward in which I cast my first vote. Now that would be an interesting thread- wards and constituencies in which we have voted. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2014 10:32:18 GMT
I'd be interested in seeing what the turnout is in Carfax. There are hardly any normal people, I mean 'permanent residents', and the first week in September is quite a time to have a byelection. I imagine this may be deliberate on the part of one of the parties. This ward is somewhat similar to the former Central, which when it was first fought in 1979 (on the day of the general election that brought Mrs Thatcher to power) elected three Conservatives. I agree. The only people likely to be around now are some postgraduates, a few final year students who have come back early or are working for the colleges over the summer, and the rare academics who live in college. And a few monks. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2014 10:33:03 GMT
"Where (and how) have you voted" has been done more than once, both in the old place and (I think) here.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 2, 2014 11:02:27 GMT
Many, many times. Its always fun though
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 2, 2014 15:10:24 GMT
And they'd have had to be living in college accommodation last year, to qualify for this register.
There are also some college owned houses with both dons and what used to be called 'servants', but from the old Central ward more of these would be in the present Holywell than Carfax.
I suspect there will have been some postal vote organisation by the parties for undergraduates, and that could decide this election.
Would it be up to the controlling group (Labour) to decide when to hold the byelection?
(that's re Devilwincarnate, page 1)
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 2, 2014 15:16:38 GMT
Many, many times. Its always fun though I can't remember whether I said that I was lucky enough to have a ward byelection a few days after my 18th birthday (High Peak, College ward - now Temple). Then there were two general elections within in the space of 8 months. |
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Post by Tangent on Sept 3, 2014 14:34:21 GMT
I'd be interested in seeing what the turnout is in Carfax. There are hardly any normal people, I mean 'permanent residents', and the first week in September is quite a time to have a byelection. I imagine this may be deliberate on the part of one of the parties. This ward is somewhat similar to the former Central, which when it was first fought in 1979 (on the day of the general election that brought Mrs Thatcher to power) elected three Conservatives. Weren't you standing in the Labour interest in that particular battle, Robert? |
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