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Post by Devonian on Mar 7, 2014 18:28:15 GMT
Latest poll from Infratest dimap 06/03/14 CDU/CSU 40% SPD 26% GRÜNE 11% FDP 4% LINKE 7% AfD 5% Other 7% www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htmI haven't been able to find a breakdown of the 'other' anywhere. |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 7, 2014 18:32:57 GMT
Latest poll from Infratest dimap 06/03/14 CDU/CSU 40% SPD 26% GRÜNE 11% FDP 4% LINKE 7% AfD 5% Other 7% www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htmI haven't been able to find a breakdown of the 'other' anywhere. I'd forgotten that AfD would get a second bite at the 5% cherry so-to-speak with the Euro elections. It'll be interesting to see if they can do it this time. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 7, 2014 19:52:08 GMT
Latest poll from Infratest dimap 06/03/14 CDU/CSU 40% SPD 26% GRÜNE 11% FDP 4% LINKE 7% AfD 5% Other 7% www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htmI haven't been able to find a breakdown of the 'other' anywhere. I'd forgotten that AfD would get a second bite at the 5% cherry so-to-speak with the Euro elections. It'll be interesting to see if they can do it this time. They don't need it, the hurdle has been completely abolished by Karlsruhe, which is why a breakdown of the others is interesting. One side question on the poll, 64% would have preferred the Drei-Prozent Hürde to remain. |
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Post by Devonian on Mar 9, 2014 12:43:53 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 9, 2014 12:56:09 GMT
Any idea who the Freie Wählers would group with if elected? Given that they don't stand for an awful lot, I recommend they start a new group with Fianna Fail. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 13:46:20 GMT
Any idea who the Freie Wählers would group with if elected? Given that they don't stand for an awful lot, I recommend they start a new group with Fianna Fail. They have said they will sit with ALDE |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 9, 2014 13:47:52 GMT
Given that they don't stand for an awful lot, I recommend they start a new group with Fianna Fail. They have said they will sit with ALDE Appropriate... |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 9, 2014 19:11:46 GMT
Given that they don't stand for an awful lot, I recommend they start a new group with Fianna Fail. They have said they will sit with ALDE Oh dear. Mind you, they may be more convivial than the FDP. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 9, 2014 19:18:29 GMT
Not even a mention of it on their website. Nor do their Sonntagfragen have any breakdown of the others. It will be interesting to see if this changes as the realisation that the Hurdle has gone comes through. Sadly, the German pollsters don't give the detailed breakdowns the UK ones do, or we could be amused by the floating NDP voter in Land Bremen. |
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andrewt
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Post by andrewt on Mar 9, 2014 22:28:34 GMT
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andrewt
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Post by andrewt on Mar 9, 2014 22:37:28 GMT
Thanks to rlemkin's earlier post , my guess now is: Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) Family Party Party for Pension Justice and Family (Rentnerpartei) |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 9, 2014 23:00:32 GMT
It's Die Welt, accuracy is not a strong point of the Springer Media. For instance it still suggests that Germany will elect 99 members of the Europarl, as opposed to the 96 they will elect. With 96 members elected by Saint-Lague, it is likely that a party can be elected with just a shade over .5% of the valid vote. Now we can assume that AfD will make that with some ease and that the Pirates Berlin vote must give them a decent chance of making it (the bubble has burst elsewhere). The Freie Wähler and the NDP are the other obvious ones, now in 2009, the Republikaners stood and the NDP didn't, now the Reps are in some disarray and the NDP have said they are going to stand. They pretty much share the same vote pool, but I suspect it is unlikely to split evenly enough to get both home. That leave the Animal Rights Party and the FAMILIE Party, both of which should be able to scrape .5%, although FAMILIE may be marginal given some of their recent results outside of the Saarland. RENTNER got .8% in 2009 out of a total "Grey" vote of 1.3%, split that differently and none of them will get in and finally you have the ödp who look very marginal. |
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Post by Devonian on Mar 14, 2014 16:38:25 GMT
Latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13/03/14 CDU/CSU 38% (-2) SPD 26% (+2) GRÜNE 11% (-1) LINKE 8% (nc) AfD 6% (nc) FDP 4% (nc) Other 7% (+1) Still no breakdown of the 'other' The poll also asked about the two leading candidates for president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker of the EPP and Martin Schulz of the Socialists. the results were Martin Schulz 29% Jean-Claude Juncker 19% Either of them 8% Don't know who they are 38% Doesn't matter who wins 2% Don't Know 4% www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer/ |
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Post by Devonian on Mar 14, 2014 17:23:50 GMT
The German Federal Election Commission has just announced which parties will be on the ballot in the European Elections in Germany. 25 parties are on the list they are as follows
www.wahlrecht.de/doku/presse/20140314-1.htm
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 14, 2014 19:22:31 GMT
Oh dear, BueSo again. Their chums in France (whatever they're called this year) don't appear to be running.
I'm going to take a punt and predict that both the FW and the OeDP will grab a seat, the latter in particular are reasonably underrated and have a decent following in Bavaria. Interesting to see that the NRW wing of FAMILIE was mostly the former NRW wing of WASG.
I agree with you, Iain- I can see the Republikaner and the NPD splitting the vote and keeping each other out.
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 14, 2014 20:32:07 GMT
Oh dear, BueSo again. Their chums in France (whatever they're called this year) don't appear to be running. I'm going to take a punt and predict that both the FW and the OeDP will grab a seat, the latter in particular are reasonably underrated and have a decent following in Bavaria. Interesting to see that the NRW wing of FAMILIE was mostly the former NRW wing of WASG. I agree with you, Iain- I can see the Republikaner and the NPD splitting the vote and keeping each other out. What, no BIG  Well LaRouche's wife is the head of BüSo. Well, the ProNRW in the lists as well (if the EDL had a party, the PRO movement would probably be it), the national right vote is split badly. However, with probably only needing .5% for a seat, the NPD might scrape it. FW are a cert, even if they manage another brothel scandal. Ditto the Animal Rights lot. I am appalled that the ödp appear to have abandoned their miniscule, they have a presence in BaWü as well, but I'm not sure its enough. Far, far too many Christian parties to get a Christian seat out of it, the confessional split probably mitigates against it unless someone wants to stir up the ashes of Zentrum again. As a Dark Horse, Die PARTEI, but I think the Piraten spike that chance. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 14, 2014 21:23:39 GMT
Good old Zentrum. Still going, even if they're not the real, original Zentrum and probably don't have the same views- would you be shocked if they turned out to be led from a ward in Hamburg by a bloke called Stefan Radfurt?  |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 14, 2014 21:41:52 GMT
Good old Zentrum. Still going, even if they're not the real, original Zentrum and probably don't have the same views- would you be shocked if they turned out to be led from a ward in Hamburg by a bloke called Stefan Radfurt? They have a similar level of electoral prowess. I believe they still have people on the local councils in Dormagen, Neuß and Mönchengladbach, but I think they've even been removed from the Kreisrats now. Von Papen did for the Zentrum. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 18, 2014 17:20:42 GMT
The Bayernpartei stand for what exactly? Are they just a regional group, like a massive residents/ratepayers party?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 18, 2014 18:01:04 GMT
The Bayernpartei stand for what exactly? Are they just a regional group, like a massive residents/ratepayers party? If they're similar to the pre-war version, they're a mix of Bavarian separatists and Bavarians who want to bilk more money off the federal government. Sort of the CSU on speed. |
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