European Election 2014 - Germany

[finsobruce]

Feb 9, 2014 11:33:58 GMT Devonian said:

Feb 9, 2014 11:14:32 GMT finsobruce said:

so fairly steady since the last time, except for a big fall in support for the FDP?

In 2009 CDU/CSU 38%, SDP 21%, Grune 12%, LINKE 7.5%, FPD 11%, Others 11%

so CDU/CSU, Grune and LINKE all steady. SDP down a quarter, FPD down two thirds, AfD 6% from nothing.

SPD 21% to 29%  - isn't that up rather than down? Or am I missing something? 

[Deleted]

Greens are almost down a quarter.. Turns out I got mixed up, person I know is 9th on the list. Still a good result.

[Devonian]

Feb 9, 2014 12:28:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Feb 9, 2014 11:33:58 GMT Devonian said:

In 2009 CDU/CSU 38%, SDP 21%, Grune 12%, LINKE 7.5%, FPD 11%, Others 11%

so CDU/CSU, Grune and LINKE all steady. SDP down a quarter, FPD down two thirds, AfD 6% from nothing.

SPD 21% to 29%  - isn't that up rather than down? Or am I missing something? 

No that's my error, now corrected. Thanks

[finsobruce]

Feb 9, 2014 12:50:35 GMT Devonian said:

Feb 9, 2014 12:28:59 GMT finsobruce said:

SPD 21% to 29%  - isn't that up rather than down? Or am I missing something? 

No that's my error, now corrected. Thanks

I wonder why the FPD have had such a decline now after decades of beating the odds? The rise of the Afd has continued - could the two things be linked in a counter intuitive sort of way?

[Sibboleth]

Their conduct when in government recently would be the main reason for that.

[iainbhx]

Feb 9, 2014 13:27:33 GMT finsobruce said:

Feb 9, 2014 12:50:35 GMT Devonian said:

No that's my error, now corrected. Thanks

I wonder why the FPD have had such a decline now after decades of beating the odds? The rise of the Afd has continued - could the two things be linked in a counter intuitive sort of way?

Acting like a bunch of corporate rent-boys the last time they were in office. You think the LibDems pissed away their political capital badly in their Coalition, mere pikers compared to Fast Drei Prozent. Who knew that the most important issue in Germany was taxes on hoteliers...

It's also not that counterintuitive, the AfD seem to be fairly FDP-liberal types but against the Euro, although like the Kippers, they have their share of people with "interesting" opinions.

[Deleted]

The AfD sound great - might discuss them with my politically interested German PhD supervisor. They will probably end up going the way of UKIP though.

[Devonian]

New European election opinion poll from INSA 14 Feb

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 25%
GRÜNE 10%
LINKE 10%
AfD 8%
FDP 3%

www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm

[carlton43]

Feb 15, 2014 12:43:42 GMT Devonian said:

New European election opinion poll from INSA 14 Feb

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 25%
GRÜNE 10%
LINKE 10%
AfD 8%
FDP 3%

www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm

Is that an improvement in 'my' AfD? I think it is.

[Devonian]

Feb 15, 2014 12:47:27 GMT carlton43 said:

Is that an improvement in 'my' AfD? I think it is.

It is an improvement for them certainly. The AfD had a disappointing year last year after they narrowly failed to get elected to the Bundestag (although to get so close to the 5% threshold was impressive for such a new party). This year looks much better for them as not only do they have the European elections (where the threshold is lower at 3% and in any case their vote looks likely to go up) but they also have regional elections in eastern Germany where their support is higher.

There are some in the AfD who want to link up with UKIP in the European parliament but party leader Lucke has said he's against that

The leader of Britain's anti-EU party has met regional heads of Germany's new eurosceptic party to discuss a possible alliance in the European Parliament after the May elections that could give them more leverage in Brussels.

Neither UKIP nor the AfD have seats in their respective national parliaments but fringe parties with an anti-EU bent are expected to do well in the European elections, which would undermine mainstream political blocs.

Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), told Reuters he had two "very productive" meetings with regional members of the upstart Alternative for Germany (AfD) over the last few months.

Bernd Lucke, who co-founded the AfD less than a year ago, has repeatedly expressed scepticism over cooperating with UKIP, due to its populist rhetoric and anti-immigration stance.

The AfD has flirted with anti-immigration rhetoric, warning against the danger of foreigners exploiting Germany's generous welfare system, but the party also calls for a more concerted drive to bring qualified immigrants to Germany.

"I am aware that the AfD leader wants to join forces with the Conservative Party but it is pleasing to know that very many senior members of AfD instead wish to enter an alliance with our party," Farage said, adding that members had the final say on what alliances were formed. 

uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/uk-germany-britain-eu-elections-idUKBREA0U1QC20140131

As the AfD's lead candidate for the European vote, Lucke says it has no concrete plans for alliances with other parties.

AfD officials had so discussed alliances with Britain's anti-EU party UKIP - a move Lucke said he opposes - and with the European Conservatives and Reformists group, to which British Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives belong.

He said he was close to the Conservatives but disagreed with their promise of a referendum on Britain's membership.

"A British exit from the EU would definitely not be in the German interest," said the economics professor at Hamburg University in near flawless English.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who also said his party would not ally before the election with Le Pen or Wilders because of their parties' records on race and Islam, told Reuters in an interview that the AfD needed "to get real".

"They have got something that could catch fire, but they don't know how to market it. Academics will never understand that," Farage said.

With or without an official alliance, Lucke said the AfD would be prepared to help block important decisions with other parties in order to get its demands through in Brussels[...]

www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-eurozone-summit-afd-idUSBREA1C0FI20140213

I think the reference to 'academics' was Farage's rather sly way of comparing Lucke to Alan Sked.

[finsobruce]

Feb 16, 2014 11:33:54 GMT Devonian said:

Feb 15, 2014 12:47:27 GMT carlton43 said:

Is that an improvement in 'my' AfD? I think it is.

It is an improvement for them certainly. The AfD had a disappointing year last year after they narrowly failed to get elected to the Bundestag (although to get so close to the 5% threshold was impressive for such a new party). This year looks much better for them as not only do they have the European elections (where the threshold is lower at 3% and in any case their vote looks likely to go up) but they also have regional elections in eastern Germany where their support is higher.

There are some in the AfD who want to link up with UKIP in the European parliament but party leader Lucke has said he's against that

The leader of Britain's anti-EU party has met regional heads of Germany's new eurosceptic party to discuss a possible alliance in the European Parliament after the May elections that could give them more leverage in Brussels.

Neither UKIP nor the AfD have seats in their respective national parliaments but fringe parties with an anti-EU bent are expected to do well in the European elections, which would undermine mainstream political blocs.

Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), told Reuters he had two "very productive" meetings with regional members of the upstart Alternative for Germany (AfD) over the last few months.

Bernd Lucke, who co-founded the AfD less than a year ago, has repeatedly expressed scepticism over cooperating with UKIP, due to its populist rhetoric and anti-immigration stance.

The AfD has flirted with anti-immigration rhetoric, warning against the danger of foreigners exploiting Germany's generous welfare system, but the party also calls for a more concerted drive to bring qualified immigrants to Germany.

"I am aware that the AfD leader wants to join forces with the Conservative Party but it is pleasing to know that very many senior members of AfD instead wish to enter an alliance with our party," Farage said, adding that members had the final say on what alliances were formed. 

uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/uk-germany-britain-eu-elections-idUKBREA0U1QC20140131

As the AfD's lead candidate for the European vote, Lucke says it has no concrete plans for alliances with other parties.

AfD officials had so discussed alliances with Britain's anti-EU party UKIP - a move Lucke said he opposes - and with the European Conservatives and Reformists group, to which British Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives belong.

He said he was close to the Conservatives but disagreed with their promise of a referendum on Britain's membership.

"A British exit from the EU would definitely not be in the German interest," said the economics professor at Hamburg University in near flawless English.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who also said his party would not ally before the election with Le Pen or Wilders because of their parties' records on race and Islam, told Reuters in an interview that the AfD needed "to get real".

"They have got something that could catch fire, but they don't know how to market it. Academics will never understand that," Farage said.

With or without an official alliance, Lucke said the AfD would be prepared to help block important decisions with other parties in order to get its demands through in Brussels[...]

www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-eurozone-summit-afd-idUSBREA1C0FI20140213

I think the reference to 'academics' was Farage's rather sly way of comparing Lucke to Alan Sked.

sounds like a leadership challenge might be in the offing at some point......

[carlton43]

Thank you very much Devonian. That is a typically helpful and informative post by you.

I rather like the feel of this party. It does seem very Carlton-shaped in a manner that UKIP isn't. And I know that in my heart and in the actuality, both Lega Nord and the French FN would pose irritations, disappointment and at times outright revulsion and upset.

I just look to the broad scope of what these parties are each in their own sphere trying to achieve. They are each nationalist and tend to anti-internationalism; thus a bit or lot anti-EU. They are also sceptical about the full ramifications of global liberal capitalism and internationalist soft socialism; so there is far more uniting them than dividing them.

Together they might be able to form a formidable bloc in the EU and a formidable block on the EU. If we cannot get our respective countries out of the EU, we must not overlook the potential for severe internal disruption of it in political terms leading it to fracture and possible disintegrate? There are many ways to skin a cat!

UKIP are castigated for poor attendance and failing to make best use. That is not the intention. Getting elected is not about improving the EU; it is about denying seats to parties that support it; causing confusion and holding up policies we don't like; about slagging off the worst of the federalists; about making points; about unearthing corruption and account rigging and failure to have audit certificates.

The EU is a proto-state and uniquely a 'failed state' actually before it comes into existence. Right-minded people are there to confuse and disrupt it, not to help it in its pernicious anti-nationalist purposes.

[iainbhx]

Feb 16, 2014 11:33:54 GMT Devonian said:

I think the reference to 'academics' was Farage's rather sly way of comparing Lucke to Alan Sked.

The AfD isn't known as the Professorpartei for nothing, you know.

[Devonian]

New European election poll from Germany 21/02/14

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD          24%
GRÜNE     12%
LINKE         8%
AfD            6%
FDP            4%

www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm

[iainbhx]

Feb 21, 2014 13:42:32 GMT Devonian said:

New European election poll from Germany 21/02/14

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD          24%
GRÜNE     12%
LINKE         8%
AfD            6%
FDP            4%

www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm

Germany has dropped from 99 seats to 96 seats.

CDU 41 (-1), SPD 25 (+2), GRÜ 12 (-2), SED 8 (-), AfD 6 (+6), FDP 4 (-8)

The constitutional court will rule on Wednesday if the Drei-Prozent-Hürde stands or not.

[erlend]

Does it revert to 5 otherwise?

[maxque]

Feb 22, 2014 19:55:10 GMT erlend said:

Does it revert to 5 otherwise?

No, the issue is whether having a threshold for European elections is constitutionnal. So, it's 0 or 3.

[erlend]

That would be manic. And remind Germans of Weimar.

[iainbhx]

Feb 22, 2014 21:00:01 GMT erlend said:

That would be manic. And remind Germans of Weimar.

It wouldn't be particularly manic. it just means that the Frei Wahler will get a seat and maybe the NPD.

The Weimar system was far more cretinous than a simple D'Hondt which applies its own hurdle in the number of seats.

[erlend]

And the Piraten based on the Bundestag Wahl.