European Election 2014 - Germany

[johnloony]

Feb 22, 2014 20:57:49 GMT maxque said:

Feb 22, 2014 19:55:10 GMT erlend said:

Does it revert to 5 otherwise?

No, the issue is whether having a threshold for European elections is constitutionnal. So, it's 0 or 3.

I thought that EU rules required countries to have a threshold (of about 3% ish) for EP elections anyway?
Obviously the UK doesn't need a specific threshold because the district magnitude is too small.

[maxque]

Feb 23, 2014 1:41:21 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 22, 2014 20:57:49 GMT maxque said:

No, the issue is whether having a threshold for European elections is constitutionnal. So, it's 0 or 3.

I thought that EU rules required countries to have a threshold (of about 3% ish) for EP elections anyway?
Obviously the UK doesn't need a specific threshold because the district magnitude is too small.

From what I read, EU rules are only specifying 3 things.

1. A form of PR must be used.
2. It's not possible to be an MP and an MEP at the same time.
3. The threshold can't be higher than 5%.

EDIT: Here is the European rule: link

[Devonian]

Interesting story here about the possibility of AfD linking up with the Conservatives in the European Parliament. Apparently They're talking about this but some Conservatives are worried it might spoil relation with Merkal.

This quote from the Guardian

On the eve of a major visit to Britain by the German chancellor, who will meet the Queen and address parliament next Thursday, Cameron's allies in the European Parliament have warned that an alliance with the new Alternative for Germany (AfD) group would damage relations with Merkel.

Senior Tories in Strasbourg fear that hardline Eurosceptics would like to team up with AfD after the European parliamentary elections in May. The group, which is pro-EU but anti-euro, is seen as a threat to Merkel's centre right CDU party in the elections.

Timothy Kirkhope, the MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber who founded the Tories' new European Conservatives and Reformists group in Strasbourg, told the Guardian: "Our most vital need is to have good relations with Chancellor Merkel and her party in terms of our reform agenda to Europe. I would not want to have anything happen that might damage that possibility."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/21/hardline-eurosceptic-tories-side-with-merkel-opponents

and I've just seen this on Sam Coates of the Times twitter

Sam Coates Times ‏@samcoatestimes 14h
Cameron will veto any attempt by the German anti Euro party to sit with UK Conservatives MEPs in the European Parliament - to appease Merkel

Sam Coates Times ‏@samcoatestimes 14h
Some members of AfD and some Tory MEPs want it to happen - but Cameron has the power (in the constitution of this EU bloc) and the will

Sam Coates Times ‏@samcoatestimes 14h
There are fears that the new EU bloc - created when Cameron took Tory MEPs out of the EPP - may collapse without this German group swelling

Sam Coates Times ‏@samcoatestimes 14h
But Cameron decided to side with Angela Merkel - who hated initial UK decision to withdraw from EPP - and against voices on his own party

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I wouldn't think less of Cameron if he had deliberately allowed rumours of an AfD affiliation to the ECR to be stoked up, only so he could squash them and then present it as a gesture of support for Angela Merkel.

[Devonian]

Feb 24, 2014 0:26:39 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I wouldn't think less of Cameron if he had deliberately allowed rumours of an AfD affiliation to the ECR to be stoked up, only so he could squash them and then present it as a gesture of support for Angela Merkel.

There could be one potential problem with that plan. The other day a website called Pollwatch2014 made a prediction on the results of the May elections based on opinion polls in all the member states. It can be found here

blog.electio2014.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Prediction-summary-table-19-Feb-CORR.pdf

Now notice that the prediction is that the ECR parties will win seats in 7 member states

1 Czech

1 Latvia

1 Luxembourg

2 Netherlands

20 Poland

1 Slovakia

16 UK

the minimum requirements to form a group is that it must have at least 25 MEPs from at least 7 member states. If this prediction is accurate then that is no problem. However if one of the smaller parties fails to get elected and there are only 6 countries on that list then there would be a problem. The AfD would then be needed to form a group and I can't imagine the ECR MEPs being happy to break up their group. If Cameron vetoed a deal they would only need one of the UK ECR MEPs to form a group without him. Of course this scenario would be dependent on the ECR electing MEPs from exactly 6 countries which may very likely not happen. The polls however suggest it is possible

[iainbhx]

The Bundesverfassungsgericht in Karlsruhe says "no threshold" in European elections. FDP breathe a sigh of relief.

[Deleted]

Feb 26, 2014 11:28:01 GMT iainbhx said:

The Bundesverfassungsgericht in Karlsruhe says "no threshold" in European elections. FDP breathe a sigh of relief.

This quite a big deal isn't it. Der Spiegel has a graphic showing what it would have done to the 2009 result. Who knows what parties will sneak an MEP. Could potentially be useful for group formation in the Parliament.

[slicesofjim]

Feb 23, 2014 1:54:55 GMT maxque said:

Feb 23, 2014 1:41:21 GMT johnloony said:

I thought that EU rules required countries to have a threshold (of about 3% ish) for EP elections anyway?
Obviously the UK doesn't need a specific threshold because the district magnitude is too small.

From what I read, EU rules are only specifying 3 things.

1. A form of PR must be used.
2. It's not possible to be an MP and an MEP at the same time.
3. The threshold can't be higher than 5%.

EDIT: Here is the European rule: link

That's quite interesting, because you can easily construct a threshold higher than 5% (that's exactly what our system is), but as long as it's de facto rather than de jure it's ok? Odd.

[Deleted]

Feb 26, 2014 15:14:36 GMT slicesofjim said:

Feb 23, 2014 1:54:55 GMT maxque said:

From what I read, EU rules are only specifying 3 things.

1. A form of PR must be used.
2. It's not possible to be an MP and an MEP at the same time.
3. The threshold can't be higher than 5%.

EDIT: Here is the European rule: link

That's quite interesting, because you can easily construct a threshold higher than 5% (that's exactly what our system is), but as long as it's de facto rather than de jure it's ok? Odd.

Does this mean the NPD will gain a seat? I am sure the Germans will be keen to stop them gaining any seats. FPD need a good result to boost morale in the party after the disastrous general election result.

[Devonian]

Feb 26, 2014 14:59:27 GMT @rlemkin said:

Feb 26, 2014 11:28:01 GMT iainbhx said:

The Bundesverfassungsgericht in Karlsruhe says "no threshold" in European elections. FDP breathe a sigh of relief.

This quite a big deal isn't it. Der Spiegel has a graphic showing what it would have done to the 2009 result. Who knows what parties will sneak an MEP. Could potentially be useful for group formation in the Parliament.

Any chance of the Republikaners getting a seat this time? They sat with the Front National before. They might help Le Pen reach the 7 country threashold to form a group.

[maxque]

Republikaners got 0.2% last time, so, I would say no.

[Devonian]

Any idea who the Freie Wählers would group with if elected?

[Deleted]

Feb 26, 2014 18:12:02 GMT maxque said:

Republikaners got 0.2% last time, so, I would say no.

No, they got 1.3% in 2009 Euro.

[slicesofjim]

Feb 26, 2014 15:21:12 GMT @barctom said:

Feb 26, 2014 15:14:36 GMT slicesofjim said:

That's quite interesting, because you can easily construct a threshold higher than 5% (that's exactly what our system is), but as long as it's de facto rather than de jure it's ok? Odd.

Does this mean the NPD will gain a seat? I am sure the Germans will be keen to stop them gaining any seats. FPD need a good result to boost morale in the party after the disastrous general election result.

And I would rather the NPD in Germany, in the BNP in the UK, didn't get any seats, but that doesn't I think thresholds (direct or indirect) should exist to deny them proper proportional representation. One of the worst arguments against PR in Britain is the fear of the BNP getting seats, which reflects the near-hysterical approach taken by the political establishment and the Left to them, an anti-democratic attitude, and a complete lack of ability to deal with such parties politically, rather than through bureaucratic fixes.

[maxque]

Feb 26, 2014 20:10:52 GMT @rlemkin said:

Feb 26, 2014 18:12:02 GMT maxque said:

Republikaners got 0.2% last time, so, I would say no.

No, they got 1.3% in 2009 Euro.

I meant than they got 0.2% in the 2013 Bundestag elections.

[iainbhx]

I think it depends if the various varieties of "I can't believe it's not fascist" can get their act together and only run one party list. If they can, they may get a seat, a single seat - which is the problem.

If you take the 2013 Bundeswahl and apply the Euro seats and rules its

CDU 34, SPD 25, SED 8, GRÜ 8, CSU 7, FDP 5, AfD 5, PIR 2, NPD 1, FW 1

[iainbhx]

Feb 26, 2014 18:21:24 GMT Devonian said:

Any idea who the Freie Wählers would group with if elected?

Which ever group has the most free beer.

[Arthur Figgis]

Feb 26, 2014 23:18:19 GMT iainbhx said:

Feb 26, 2014 18:21:24 GMT Devonian said:

Any idea who the Freie Wählers would group with if elected?

Which ever group has the most free beer.

I'm coming round to their way of thinking...

[erlend]

Feb 26, 2014 23:16:46 GMT iainbhx said:

I think it depends if the various varieties of "I can't believe it's not fascist" can get their act together and only run one party list. If they can, they may get a seat, a single seat - which is the problem.

If you take the 2013 Bundeswahl and apply the Euro seats and rules its

CDU 34, SPD 25, SED 8, GRÜ 8, CSU 7, FDP 5, AfD 5, PIR 2, NPD 1, FW 1

But even in the German context I think the position that 2013 had a 5% threshold must have squeezed the hard right vote (actually I suspect that some of those votes may have voted Linke). I could imagine that with an open goal there is room for more than 1 Neo Nazi (my wording even if they are legal) as there was I think in 2009 even when there was a threshold.

[Devonian]

Feb 24, 2014 20:27:08 GMT Devonian said:

Feb 24, 2014 0:26:39 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I wouldn't think less of Cameron if he had deliberately allowed rumours of an AfD affiliation to the ECR to be stoked up, only so he could squash them and then present it as a gesture of support for Angela Merkel.

There could be one potential problem with that plan. The other day a website called Pollwatch2014 made a prediction on the results of the May elections based on opinion polls in all the member states. It can be found here

blog.electio2014.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Prediction-summary-table-19-Feb-CORR.pdf

Now notice that the prediction is that the ECR parties will win seats in 7 member states

1 Czech

1 Latvia

1 Luxembourg

2 Netherlands

20 Poland

1 Slovakia

16 UK

the minimum requirements to form a group is that it must have at least 25 MEPs from at least 7 member states. If this prediction is accurate then that is no problem. However if one of the smaller parties fails to get elected and there are only 6 countries on that list then there would be a problem. The AfD would then be needed to form a group and I can't imagine the ECR MEPs being happy to break up their group. If Cameron vetoed a deal they would only need one of the UK ECR MEPs to form a group without him. Of course this scenario would be dependent on the ECR electing MEPs from exactly 6 countries which may very likely not happen. The polls however suggest it is possible

New PollWatch2014 prediction

blog.electio2014.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/PollWatch2014-tables-5-March-2014-forecast.pdf

In this the prediction is that the ECR parties will win seats in 6 member states

2 Czech Republic
1 Latvia
2 Netherlands
20 Poland
1 Slovakia
19 UK

A better prediction for the Conservative Party in terms of their own MEP numbers however if this turns out to be accurate in means they'll need at least one MEP from another country to form a group.