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Post by middleenglander on Jul 28, 2013 21:17:18 GMT
It looks like 18 by-elections during the month
- 5 on August 1st
- 4 on August 8th
- 4 on August 15th
- 4 on August 22nd
- 1 on August 29th
8 of the contests are in District Councils
- 6 in wards where the last elections were in 2011 and 2 in 2012
4 in Unitary Authorities
- 2 where the last elections were in 2011 and 2 where there were all out elections in 2012
2 in County Councils with elections in 2013
2 in Metropolitan Boroughs with elections 3 years out of 4
1 in a London Borough where the last election was in 2010
1 in a Welsh Council where elections were held in 2012
Conservatives are defending 7 seats,
- 3 arising from a death, 3 from resignations and 1 disqualification where former councillor was sitting as an Independent
Labour 6 seats, 4 from a death and 2 resignations
UKIP 2 seats, 1 death and 1 resignation
Lib Dems (resignation), Plaid Cymru (death) and Independent (resignation) all defend 1 seat
With all the nominations now in:
Conservatives are contesting all 18 seats, Labour 17, UKIP 14 whilst Lib Dems 12, Independents 6 and Greens 5
TUSAC 3, English Democrats 2 whilst Kidderminster Health Concern, Plaid Cymru, Putting Hartlepool 1st, United People's Party and No Description all 1
- a total of 82 candidates
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of contest.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 5:52:10 GMT
AMBER VALLEY
Ron ASHTON (The Conservative Party Candidate)15
Keith FALCONBRIDGE (Liberal Democrat)5
Isobel HARRY (The Labour Party Candidate)55
Garry SMITH (UK Independence Party)25
CAERPHILLY -
Jaime DAVIES (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)12
Cameron MUIR-JONES (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru)8
Gareth PRATT (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)41
Steve SKIVENS (Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales)39
NORFOLK
Tristan ASHBY (The Conservative Party Candidate)25
Danny JEFFREY (Independent)5
Terry JERMY (Labour Party Candidate)37
John NEWTON (UK Independence Party)30
Sandra WALMSLEY (Green Party)3
RIBBLE VALLEY
Jean FORSHAW (The Conservative Party Candidate)27
Steve RUSH (Independent)19
James SHERVEY (Liberal Democrats)26
Liz WEBBE (The Labour Party)28
WORCESTERSHIRE
Mumshad AHMED (The Labour Party Candidate)22
Graham BALLINGER (Independent Community and Health Concern)20
Nathan DESMOND (The Conservative Party Candidate)21
Helen DYKE (Independent)14
Peter WILLOUGHBY (UK Independence Party (UKIP))23
Is there a prediction for the AM election in YNYS MON needed?
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 29, 2013 8:14:03 GMT
AMBER VALLEY Is there a prediction for the AM election in YNYS MON needed? No |
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 31, 2013 16:17:21 GMT
Amber Valley, Codnor and Waingroves: Lab 53 Con 23 UKIP 18 LD 6
Caerphilly, Penyrheol: PC 48 Lab 43 TUSC 5 Con 4
Norfolk, Thetford West: Lab 40 UKIP 33 Con 17 Ind 8 Green 2
Ribble Valley, Littlemoor: Ind 34 Con 26 LD 24 Lab 16
Worcestershire, St Mary's: Ind 24 Con 22 UKIP 20 Lab 19 ICHC 15
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 21:56:35 GMT
Amber Valley, Codnor and Waingroves: Lab 58 UKIP 20 Con 18 LD 4
Caerphilly, Penyrheol: PC 50 Lab 39 Con 8 TUSC 3
Norfolk, Thetford West: Lab 38 UKIP 26 Con 18 Ind 15 Green 3
Ribble Valley, Littlemoor: Con 33 LD 27 Lab 21 Ind 19
Worcestershire, St Mary's: Lab 25 Con 24 UKIP 20 Ind 18 ICHC 13
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 31, 2013 22:26:43 GMT
Amber Valley, Codnor and Waingroves: Lab 46 Con 18 UKIP 32 LD 4
Caerphilly, Penyrheol: PC 46 Lab 45 TUSC 4 Con 5
Norfolk, Thetford West: Lab 39 UKIP 35 Con 16 Ind 7 Green 3
Ribble Valley, Littlemoor: Ind 29 Con 28 LD 25 Lab 18
Worcestershire, St Mary's: Ind 29 Con 24 UKIP 19 Lab 16 ICHC 12
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 22:43:22 GMT
Amber Valley (Codnor & Waingroves): Con 20, Lab 58, LD 6, UKIP 16
Caerphilly (Penyrheol): Con 9, Lab 40, PC 46, TUSC 5
Norfolk (Thetford West): Con 12, Lab 38, UKIP 32, Green 5, Ind 13
Ribble Valley (Littlemoor): Con 38, Lab 28, LD 22, Ind 12
Worcestershire (St Mary's): Con 28, Lab 24, UKIP 19, ICHC 12, Ind 17
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 1, 2013 0:13:44 GMT
AMBER VALLEY - Lab 54, UKIP 23, Con 18, LD 5
CAERPHILLY - PC 47, Lab 43, TUSC 5, Con 5
NORFOLK - Lab 43, Con 27, UKIP 23, Ind 4, Grn 3
RIBBLE VALLEY - Ind 31, Con 27, LD 26, Lab 16
WORCESTERSHIRE - Ind 26, UKIP 23, Con 21, Lab 18, ICHC 12
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Post by marksenior on Aug 1, 2013 6:49:00 GMT
Amber Valley Lab 57 UKIP 20 Con 16 LD 7
Caerphilly Plaid 48 Lab 43 TUSC 5 Con 4
Norfolk Lab 41 UKIP 32 Con 18 Ind 6 Green 3
Ribble Valley Ind 29 LD 28 Con 26 Lab 17
Worcs Con 24 Ind 23 Lab 21 UKIP 20 ICHC 12
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Post by hempie on Aug 1, 2013 7:20:39 GMT
Amber Valley, Codnor and Waingroves: Lab 49, Con 25, UKIP 20, LD 6
Caerphilly, Penyrheol: PC 45, Lab 43, TUSC 7, Con 5
Norfolk, Thetford West: Lab 42,UKIP 27, Con 22, Ind 6, Green 3
Ribble Valley, Littlemoor: LD 33, Con 30, Ind 20, Lab 17
Worcestershire, St Mary's: UKIP 24, Con 23, Lab 21,ICHC 17,Ind 15
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Post by hempie on Aug 1, 2013 7:25:35 GMT
Off on my hols tomorrow so here is my prediction for next week
8th August 2013
Merton, Colliers Wood: Lab 53,Con 20, UKIP 15, LD 12
Redcar & Cleveland, Skelton: Lab 45, Con 19, Ind 16, UKIP 10, LD 10
Swindon, Haydon Wick: Con 42, Lab 38, UKIP 12, LD 8
Waveney, Oulton: Lab 37, Con 36, UKIP 12, LD 10, Green 5
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 1, 2013 8:14:47 GMT
Amber Valley BC - Codnor & Waingroves Lab 55.3% UKIP 20.6% Con 19.6% LD 4.5% Ribble Valley DC - Littlemoor LD 31.6% Con 25.6% Ind 24.1% Lab 18.7% Norfolk CC - Thetford West Lab 44.9% UKIP 29.1% Con 18.3% Ind 5.4% Grn 2.3% Worcesterhire CC - St Mary's Ind 25.1% UKIP 20.3% Con 20.1% Lab 18.6% ICHC 15.9% Caerphilly CC - Penyrheol Lab 44.6% PC 44.5% Con 5.7% TUSC 5.2% |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 1, 2013 8:23:57 GMT
Amber Valley: Lab 56.7 Con 20.8 UKIP 17.8 LD 4.7 Caerphilly: PC 47.6 Lab 40.9 Con 6.7 TUSC 4.8 Norfolk: Lab 39.3 UKIP 32.1 Con 19.3 Ind 6.6 Grn 2.7 Ribble Valley: Ind 30.1 LD 29.0 Con 28.8 Lab 12.1 Worcs: Con 26.4 UKIP 25.2 Lab 24.6 ICHC 20.4 Ind 3.4 looking at the other predictions, i'm guessing that my lack of time for research has meant I've missed something about the independant in Worcs. Ah well... |
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 1, 2013 9:39:39 GMT
She is an ex-Lib Dem district councillor for part of this county division, who comfortably held her seat as an Independent in 2012. She also came very close to winning the next door county division this May.
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 1, 2013 9:39:45 GMT
AMBER VALLEY - Codnor and Waingroves Ron ASHTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 25.2 Keith FALCONBRIDGE (Liberal Democrat) 2.5 Isobel HARRY (The Labour Party Candidate) 53.9 Garry SMITH (UK Independence Party) 18.4 CAERPHILLY - Penyrheol Jaime DAVIES (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 3.4 Cameron MUIR-JONES (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) 5.5 Gareth PRATT (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 46.9 Steve SKIVENS (Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales) 44.2 NORFOLK - Thetford West Tristan ASHBY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17.8 Danny JEFFREY (Independent) 4.0 Terry JERMY (Labour Party Candidate) 43.7 John NEWTON (UK Independence Party) 32.0 Sandra WALMSLEY (Green Party) 2.5 RIBBLE VALLEY - Littlemoor Jean FORSHAW (The Conservative Party Candidate) 26.1 Steve RUSH (Independent) 25.0 James SHERVEY (Liberal Democrats) 35.5 Liz WEBBE (The Labour Party) 13.4 WORCESTERSHIRE - St Mary's Mumshad AHMED (The Labour Party Candidate) 19.2 Graham BALLINGER (Independent Community and Health Concern) 12.7 Nathan DESMOND (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20.6 Helen DYKE (Independent) 25 Peter WILLOUGHBY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 22.5 |
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Post by marksenior on Aug 1, 2013 10:34:56 GMT
She is an ex-Lib Dem district councillor for part of this county division, who comfortably held her seat as an Independent in 2012. She also came very close to winning the next door county division this May. As is her husband Peter Dyke . They both have links with the Lib Dems and with Fran Oborski's Liberals . I am not sure what % of their DC ward is in this county division and what % is in the Chaddesley county division . |
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
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Post by tricky on Aug 1, 2013 13:37:08 GMT
As a matter of interest would anyone change their prediction if they knew I have been in Clitheroe since very early this morning?
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Post by marksenior on Aug 1, 2013 14:11:44 GMT
As a matter of interest would anyone change their prediction if they knew I have been in Clitheroe since very early this morning? No I think the result is quite unpredictable because of the Ind candidate . |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 1, 2013 19:22:13 GMT
12 entries this week with Andrew Teale getting 3 additional faults for a non-existent Green candidate in Worcestershire.
Amber Valley - 100% Labour hold
Caerphilly - 9 Plaid Cymru holds, Just Looking, Pete Whitehead and PhilDav a Labour gain
Norfolk - 100% Labour gain from UKIP
Ribble Valley - 5 Independent gains from Conservative,
- Andrew Teale, CaholicLeft & James Doyle a Conservative hold, Hempie, Pete Whitehead & PhilDav a Lib Dem gain with Just Looking a Labour gain
Worcestershire - 4 Conservative gains from UKIP
- greatkingrat, Lancastrian, Pete Whiteheld & Robert Waller a Independent gain, Hempie, Just Looking & PhilDav a UKIP hold with CatholicLeft a Labour gain
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 1, 2013 19:29:38 GMT
As a matter of interest would anyone change their prediction if they knew I have been in Clitheroe since very early this morning? I would  |
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