Prediction Competition for August 2013

[middleenglander]

Aug 2, 2013 9:16:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Wyre Forest must qualify for the title of the bizarrest local political culture

I used to live in Wyre Forest twenty years ago. I still have contacts and know of (rather than know well) three of the candidates. I silently predicted a Conservative gain as Nathan Desmond was always likely to be a strong candidate hampered in May by his party whereas the then successful UKIP candidate was not only strong but also had a following party wind.

[lancastrian]

Merton, Colliers Wood: Lab 56 Con 18 UKIP 18 LD 8
Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton: Lab 48 Con 19 UKIP 15 Ind 11 LD 7
Swindon, Haydon Wick: Con 40 Lab 31 UKIP 20 LD 9
Waveney, Oulton: Lab 35 Con 26 UKIP 26 LD 8 Green 5

[Deleted]

Merton, Colliers Wood: Lab 46 UKIP 32 con 18 LD 4
Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton: Lab 42 UKIP 26 con 16 Ind 11 LD 5
Swindon, Haydon Wick: UKIP 38 Lab 31 con 27 LD 4
Waveney, Oulton: Lab 35 ukip 31 con 20 green 8 ld 6

[Robert Waller]

Merton, Colliers Wood: Lab 65 Con 18 UKIP 7 LD 10
Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton: Lab 54 Con 21 UKIP 12 Ind 10 LD 3
Swindon, Haydon Wick: Con 43 Lab 40 UKIP 14 LD 3
Waveney, Oulton: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 28 LD 3 Green 3

[Deleted]

Merton, Colliers Wood: Lab 59 Con 21 UKIP 17 LD 3
Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton: Lab 54 Ind 16 Con 14 UKIP 12 LD 4
Swindon, Haydon Wick: Con 38 Lab 34 UKIP 22 LD 6
Waveney, Oulton: Lab 37 UKIP 32 Con 21 Green 6 LD 4

[greatkingrat]

MERTON - Lab 56, Con 17, UKIP 15, LD 12
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND - Lab 45, Ind 16, UKIP 15, Con 14, LD 10
SWINDON - Con 43, Lab 33, UKIP 17, LD 7
WAVENEY - Lab 31, UKIP 29, Con 26, Grn 8, LD 6

[marksenior]

Merton Lab 64 UKIP 15 Con 13 LD 8
Redcar Lab 49 Con 16 UKIP 15 LD 14 Ind 6
Swindon Con 44 Lab 30 UKIP 17 LD 9
Waveney Lab 34 UKIP 31 Con 26 LD 5 Green 4

[Tony Otim]

Aug 5, 2013 15:28:14 GMT Tony Otim said:

Waveney:
UKIP 31.8
Lab 29.7
Con 27.6
Grn 6.4
LD 4.5


Merton:
Lab 62.2
Con 21.3
LD 9.4
UKIP 7.1

Swindon:
Con 36.5
Lab 32.7
UKIP 24.0
LD 6.8


Redcar & Cleveland:
Lab 47.3
Con 21.1
UKIP 15.6
LD 10.4
Ind 5.6

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 7, 2013 21:54:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Merton LB - Colliers Wood

Lab   65.9%
Con  15.7%
UKIP 10.5%
LD     7.9%


Redcar & Cleveland UA - Skelton

Lab  36.1%
Ind   23.4%
Con  19.6%
UKIP 13.3%
LD     7.6%


Swindon UA - Haydon Wick

Con  40.7%
Lab   33.9%
UKIP 18.5%
LD      6.9%


Waveney BC - Oulton

Lab   34.7%
UKIP 29.6%
Con  25.9%
LD      5.1%
Grn    4.7%

[Philip Davies]

Aug 7, 2013 22:44:52 GMT Philip Davies said:

MERTON - Colliers Wood

Caroline COOPER-MARBIAH (The Labour Party Candidate) 65.2
Shafqat JANJUA (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5.1
Phil LING (Liberal Democrat) 12.6
Peter LORD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17.0


REDCAR AND CLEVELAND - Skelton

James CARROLLE (Independent) 5.0
Stuart TODD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 15.0
Rod WAITE (Liberal Democrats) 11.2
David WALSH (Labour Party Candidate) 46.1
Anne WATTS (Conservative Party Candidate) 22.7


SWINDON - Haydon Wick

Maura CLARKE (Labour Party Candidate) 36.6
Sean DAVEY (Liberal Democrats) 6.6
Oliver DONACHIE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38.3
Ed GERRARD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 18.5


WAVENEY - Oulton

Len JACKLIN (Labour Party Candidate) 40.7
Deanna LAW (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33.4
Maxine NARBURGH (Green Party) 5.2
Bert POOLE (UK Independence Party) 14.7
Chris THOMAS (Liberal Democrats) 6.0

[middleenglander]

All 12 contestants from last week have submitted predictions. Andrew Teale gets 6 additional faults for adding to 106% in Waveney whilst PhilDav gets 0.1 additional faults for adding to 99.9% in Merton.

Merton: 100% Labour hold
Redcar & Cleveland: 100% Labour hold
Swindon: 10 Conservative holds, Andrew Teale Labour gain, Just Looking UKIP gain
Waveney: 10 Labour holds, James Doyle Conservative gain, tonyotim UKIP gain

[andrewteale]

Aug 7, 2013 22:35:46 GMT andrewteale said:

SKELTON: Lab 41 Ind 21 LD 14 C 13 UKIP 11
COLLIERS WOOD: Lab 64 C 20 LD 10 UKIP 6
HAYDON WICK: Lab 39 C 36 UKIP 17 LD 8
OULTON: Lab 36 C 28 UKIP 28 LD 8 Grn 6

[Robert Waller]

After the first two full results my very rough estimate has tonyotim still in the lead but I think hempie has slipped down from second to about fifth. Pete may have moved up to second for the month after two of the better predictions, but close with Mark and Phil.

[Robert Waller]

We may not get the full Waveney results tonight, but I suspect that for the month - Tony's lead may have got much smaller, as we know he got the wrong winner there, and it may be very close with Pete, Mark and Phil in a four way battle for the lead with Redcar Skelton to come tomorrow.

[Robert Waller]

I see we have now got the full Waveney result - see The Bishop's edit - and Pete may now have taken the lead for the month!

[Robert Waller]

Looks like the lead for both the week and the month so far depends on Pete's view that an Independent will do well in Skelton!
We've had independents both do very well and let some of us down in the last two weeks ....

[Tony Otim]

Bloody UKIP! When I back them to do well, they don't, when I don't, they do

[Tony Otim]

JustLooking may have the best result from Redcar. I think I may have moved back ahead of Pete?

[Pete Whitehead]

Looks like the Independent let me down again and I seem to be underestimating my own party

[Deleted]

Confused about scoring I add it up to about 15 for redcar am i right or wrong?