Prediction Competition for August 2013

[marksenior]

Doncaster Lab 51 UKIP 14 Con 12 Eng Dem 9 Ind 6 TUSC 5 LD 3
Lincoln Con 36 Lab 34 UKIP 22 LD 4 TUSC 4
Scarb Newby Con 27 Lab 23 UKIP 21 Ind 20 Green 9
Scarb Ramshill LD 26 Con 25 Lab 23 UKIP 19 Green 7

[hempie]

Doncaster, Askern Spa: Lab 47, UKIP 15, Con 15, Eng Dem 10, Ind 5, LD 5, TUSC 3
Lincoln, Bracebridge: Lab 45, Con 32, UKIP 15,LD 5, TUSC 3
Scarborough, Newby: Ind 30, Con 27, Lab 20, UKIP 15, Green 8
Scarborough, Ramshill: LD 26, Con 24, Lab 20, UKIP 15, Green 15

[Pete Whitehead]

Doncaster MB - Askern Spa

Lab 49.2
UKIP 16.7
Con 14.2
ED 7.8
Ind 5.0
TUSC 3.8
LD 3.3

Lincoln BC - Bracebridge

Lab 36.8
Con 34.0
UKIP 21.2
LD 4.8
TUSC 3.2

Scarborough BC - Newby

Con 28.7
Ind 26.5
Lab 19.1
UKIP 18.8
Grn 6.9

Scarborough BC - Ramshill

Con 25.3
Lab 24.8
UKIP 20.3
LD 20.2
Grn 9.4

[Tony Otim]

Aug 19, 2013 12:28:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Doncaster:
Lab 53.2
UKIP 15.6
Con 12.2
ED 7.9
Ind 5.4
TUSC 3.2
LD 2.5


Lincoln:
Lab 36.8
Con 38.2
UKIP 19.7
LD 3.5
TUSC 1.8

Scarborough, Newby:
Con 33.3
Lab 23.2
UKIP 19.6
Ind 16.5
Grn 7.4

Scarborough, Ramshill
Con 40.6
UKIP 30.5
Lab 18.1
Grn 7.6
LD 3.2

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week with nothing from CatholicLeft, James Doyle and Dibs.

Doncaster, Askern Spa - 100% Labour hold
Lincoln, Bracebridge - 5 Conservative holds, Andrew Teale, greatkingrat, hempie, Just Looking & Pete Whitehead Labour gain
Scarborough, Newby - 5 Conservative gains, greatkingrat, hempie, Lancastrian & PhilDav Independent hold, Just Looking UKIP gain
Scarborough, Ramshill - 5 Conservative holds, Andrew Teale & Lancastrian Labour gain, hempie & Mark Senior Lib Dem gain, Just Looking UKIP gain

I understand all the counts are being conducted this evening.

[andrewteale]

Aug 21, 2013 23:54:31 GMT andrewteale said:

BRACEBRIDGE: Lab 39 C 29 UKIP 26 LD 4 TUSC 2
ASKERN SPA: Lab 53 C 23 UKIP 9 Ind 6 TUSC 5 EDP 3 LD 1
NEWBY: C 31 Lab 23 Ind 21 UKIP 20 Grn 5
RAMSHILL: Lab 27 C 26 UKIP 24 LD 15 Grn 8

[middleenglander]

PhilDav's entry - he is on holiday

Askern Spa: Lab 52 C 18 UKIP 17.5 Ind 5 ED 4 TUSAC 2 LD 1.5
Bracebridge: C 40.5 Lab 38 UKIP 17 LD 3 TUSAC 1.5
Newby: Ind 30 C 26 Lab 20 UKIP 18 Grn 6
Ramshill: C 30.5 Lab 27.5 UKIP 15 LD 15 Grn 12

[Robert Waller]

After Lincoln, I think Pete moves up to second for the month and cuts phildav's lead.
Pete, GKR and Andrew best here.

[Tony Otim]

I think the Ramshill result has just totally f***ed me up

[Tony Otim]

I'm also slightly annoyed at myself because I made a last minute change in my Lincoln prediction to switch it to a Con hold which cost me 12 extra faults

[Robert Waller]

I think you may have been best on Newby though, Tony, so overall you may still be not far behind Phil and Pete who may be close for the lead for the month ... I look forward to the authoritative figures!

Think Andrew did well this week.

[Tony Otim]

But with only one relatively straightforward contest left this month, I doubt much is going to change.

[middleenglander]

Doncaster, Askern Spa
tonyotim 21.0 faults, Robert Waller 22.7, greatkingrat & Mark Senior 24.2, Pete Whitehead 27.2, hempie 28.8, PhilDav 28.9, Andrew Teale 30.7, Lancastrian 31.7, Just Looking 56.2

Lincoln, Bracebridge
Pete Whitehead 8.1 faults, greatkingrat 8.3, Andrew Teale 8.4, hempie 16.7, Lancastrian 11.7+10, Mark Senior & tonyotim 13.7+10, Robert Waller 15.7+10, PhilDav 17.7+10, Just Looking 31.8

Scarborough, Newby
tonyotim 17.2 faults, Andrew Teale 25.1, Mark Senior 27.0, Pete Whitehead 28.3, Robert Waller 35.5, Just Looking 34.8+10, PhilDav 37.1+10, greatkingrat 37.5+10, hempie 39.0+10, Lancastrian 41.0+10

Scarborough, Ramshill
Andrew Teale 21.0, Lancastrian 31.0, Just Looking 22.2+10, greatkingrat 27.0+10, Pete Whitehead 30.0+10, Robert Waller 31.0+10, PhilDav 31.1+10, Mark Senior 41.0+10, hempie 46.1+10, tonyotim 49.4+10

and for the week:

Andrew Teale 85.2 faults, Pete Whitehead 103.6, greatkingrat 117,1, tonyotim 121.4, Robert Waller 125.0, Mark Senior 126.0, Lancastrian 135.5, PhilDav 144.8, hempie 150.7, Just Looking 165.0

and with one week contest to come there is all to play for:

429.0 PhilDav
431.7 Pete Whitehead
437.8 tonyotim

478.2 Mark Senior
480.4 greatkingrat
487.0 Lancastrian
490.0 Andrew Teale
493.2 Robert Waller

543.8 hempie
700.1 Just Looking
829.6 CatholicLeft
830.0 James Doyle

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.

Final August contest next week, predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Andrew for the week!

I'm really kicking myself about changing my mind about Lincoln now!

[marksenior]

Took a gamble on Ramshill which did not come off , c'est la vie . I also got Lincoln wrong . As the Conservatives had won the ward in May I did not think they would lose it 4 months later .

[The Bishop]

I think the CC ward boundaries in Bracebridge are slightly different (though not sure what effect that has)

[hempie]

I used to live in Bracebridge ward and I would never expect it to be naturally Conservative.

[Deleted]

Aug 23, 2013 9:37:59 GMT middleenglander said:

829.6 CatholicLeft

I moved house on Wednesday and the damn machine wouldn't let me log in - I could see the Site, but not get on it....Lord alone knows why.

[Robert Waller]

SOUTH LAKELAND - Windermere Bowness North (Liberal Democrat resigned)


Rae CROSS (Labour Party Candidate) 7%
Colin JONES (Liberal Democrats) 66%
Ian KEELING (Conservative Party Candidate) 27%

[lancastrian]

South Lakeland: LD 63 Con 29 Lab 8