obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Sept 11, 2019 14:11:40 GMT
Well done Agents Áirlín Ní Cheallaigh, Niall Ó Dubhda, Somhairle Mac Liam and, last but not least, our deepest-cover agents Niall Ó Faraois and Boiris Mac Eoin.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Sept 11, 2019 14:20:56 GMT
Looking at the crosstabs, the figure for "neither Unionist nor Nationalist background" isn't explicitly given but they make up 11% of the adjusted sample (U 47%, N 42%) and their views on a border referendum tomorrow are:
United Ireland: 46% United Kingdom: 21% Don't know: 33%
As I've said before it's amongst the "others" that any referendum would be won or lost.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 13, 2019 20:47:04 GMT
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Nov 13, 2019 20:48:55 GMT
Very good poll for the SDLP. To be fair to them, they have a young and talented top team, and Eastwood has shown clear leadership over Brexit - unlike the UUP.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2019 20:58:36 GMT
Good prospects for SDLP in South Belfast but less so for Alliance in East Belfast
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 13, 2019 20:58:41 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 13, 2019 21:13:27 GMT
Very good poll for the SDLP. To be fair to them, they have a young and talented top team, and Eastwood has shown clear leadership over Brexit - unlike the UUP. I've made it clear that I have reservations regarding lucidtalk's polling methods, so I'm not going to be a hypocrite and laud that poll as a sign of a 'surge', lol.. But, yes overall, if those poll results hypothetically are reflected on election day, we would retake Foyle and South Belfast, and it would likely be incredibly close in South Down.
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 14, 2019 0:38:34 GMT
Good prospects for SDLP in South Belfast but less so for Alliance in East Belfast I think it might be good for both as I think alliance are way up on last westminister election! If anyway accurate it could be a move to centre! Could be very interesting election
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 8, 2019 23:15:19 GMT
10% minor parties/ undecided.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 9, 2019 0:05:59 GMT
Is Alliance's vote that evenly spread to win nothing on 15%?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 9, 2019 0:15:22 GMT
Is Alliance's vote that evenly spread to win nothing on 15%? It is LucidTalk, so I wouldn't take it too seriously as it is a self-selecting panel.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 9, 2019 0:17:46 GMT
If these figures were correct, Alliance aren't that evenly spread and they would win North Down and 1 other. They are not likely to be correct.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 10, 2019 16:29:47 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,711
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Post by iain on Oct 12, 2020 9:17:36 GMT
Assembly voting intention (changes from last election): SF - 24% (-4%) DUP - 23% (-5%) Alliance - 16% (+7%) SDLP - 13% (+1%) UUP - 12% (-1%) TUV - 6% (+3%) Green - 3% (+1%) PBP - 2% (-)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2020 10:02:30 GMT
UUP now fifth, how are the mighty fallen indeed.
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Oct 12, 2020 11:09:27 GMT
Assembly voting intention (changes from last election): SF - 24% (-4%) DUP - 23% (-5%) Alliance - 16% (+7%) SDLP - 13% (+1%) UUP - 12% (-1%) TUV - 6% (+3%) Green - 3% (+1%) PBP - 2% (-) Which means Unionist -3%, Nationalist -3%, Other +8%
Seems significant
Last time the designations were 40 Unionist, 39 Nationalist and 11 Other. With a poll like this it is almost impossible to work out whether the Nationalists or the Unionists come out with the most MLAs and therefore which of SF or DUP get the First Minister's job. At a guess, I'd say the Unionists still edge it ever so slightly at the end of the day (probably with some pact or another, and the fear of a SF FM driving some Alliance voters back to the Unionists), but still....
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Post by relique on Oct 12, 2020 12:18:27 GMT
Assembly voting intention (changes from last election): SF - 24% (-4%) DUP - 23% (-5%) Alliance - 16% (+7%) SDLP - 13% (+1%) UUP - 12% (-1%) TUV - 6% (+3%) Green - 3% (+1%) PBP - 2% (-) Could lead to
SF: 27 seats (=)
DUP: 26 (-2: -1 in Foyle and Belfast North) Alliance: 16 (+8: +1 in North and East Antrim, Belfast North and East, North Down, Strangford, Lagan Valley and Upper Bann) SDLP: 12 (=: -1 in Lagan Valley and Upper Bann and +1 in Foyle and Fermanagh and South Tyrone) UUP: 5 (-5: -1 in North and East Antrim, Belfast East, Strangford and Fermanagh and South Tyrone) TUV: 1 (=) Green: 1 (-1 in North Down) PBP: 1 (=) Independent Unionist: 1 (=, East Londonderry)
So Unionists: 33 Nationalists: 39 Others: 18
Edit: to explain a bit:
unionists seats are more vulnerable to an Alliance surge. In nationalists constituencies like Belfast West (1,9%), Newry and Armagh (2,6%), Fermanagh and South Tyrone (2,8%), West Tyrone (2,8%), Mid Ulster (2%), Foyle (2,5%) Alliance was very very far in 2017 and I don't see how they could get a seat, even with this kind of surge.
Alliance was closer in North Antrim (5,4% in 2017, 14,1% in the 2019 GE), East Antrim (1 seat with 16,1%, 27,3% in 2019 GE), North Down (1 seat with 18,6%, 45,2% in the GE and 26% in the local elections), Strangford (1 seat with 15% in 2017, 28,4% in 2019 GE), Lagan Valley (1 seat with 13,5%, 28,4% in 2019 GE), Upper Bann (5,3% in 2017, 12,9% in 2019 GE).
Without independents (except Claire Sudgen), my constituency-by-constituency projections (from the poll) would give:
SF: 25,27% DUP: 24,07% AP: 14,68% SDLP: 14,62% UUP: 11,35% TUV: 4,28%
Greens: 3,12% PBPA: 1,98% Ind U: 0,63%
I still have DUP, SF and SDLP a bit higher than the poll, AP TUV and UUP a bit lower so I'd need to correct a bit. Fermanagh and South Tyrone might not go to SDLP and rather stay in unionists hands. Some SF seats are vulnerable (Foyle mainly, although I think the DUP seat is more vulnerable, and it would still be a nationalist seat; elsewhere, I think in Fermanagh South Tyrone, Belfast North and South Down, keeping or gaining the constituencies would help them keep their seats which might be the three most vulnerable after Foyle)
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 12, 2020 13:58:31 GMT
I don’t see any realistic prospect of a 4-1 split in Fermanagh.
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Post by therealriga on Oct 12, 2020 14:30:11 GMT
I don’t see any realistic prospect of a 4-1 split in Fermanagh. I don't think that's what he was suggesting. The SDLP won a seat in 2016 and lost it, on the second count in 2017, when their candidate was only 62 votes behind the third SF candidate. Any dip in the SF vote and the nationalist balance goes SF 2-1 SDLP instead of 3-0. That also has implications for the unionist side, since the eliminated SDLP candidate's transfers pushed the UUP candidate ahead of the second DUP runner, so the UUP would also be the losers from an SDLP gain scenario.
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Post by relique on Oct 12, 2020 14:48:00 GMT
I don’t see any realistic prospect of a 4-1 split in Fermanagh. I don't think that's what he was suggesting. The SDLP won a seat in 2016 and lost it, on the second count in 2017, when their candidate was only 62 votes behind the third SF candidate. Any dip in the SF vote and the nationalist balance goes SF 2-1 SDLP instead of 3-0. That also has implications for the unionist side, since the eliminated SDLP candidate's transfers pushed the UUP candidate ahead of the second DUP runner, so the UUP would also be the losers from an SDLP gain scenario. I agree it's a stretch. But with a weakened DUP, I think Foster would gain more votes and her running mate losing a lot of votes. (something like 9000-4500 instead of 8500-7100 last time; from 29,8% to 25,7% wouldn't be such a stretch with DUP going from 28 to 23% in NI)
UUP would also lose some votes. They were at 6000 last time and could go as low as 5000. TUV was at 800 last time, according to the poll, they would do better, so maybe 2000 ?
SDLP would do better than last time, so from 5100, they would go to 6000 probably.
Now, the 3 SF should all be around 7000. They were at 8000, 7800 and 6300 last time. They are quite good at vote management so they might succeed in having three candidates between 6800 and 7500.
The Greens would do better, maybe 1500 instead of 550; Alliance also at 3000 instead of 1400.
And now, there's a really tough call between a lagging DUP at 4500 (but that could gain more TUV votes and 200 or so Foster's votes in the end), a UUP at 5000 which would get few TUV votes and maybe some Alliance votes as well. The Greens votes would go Alliance and SDLP mainly but also a little to every one. After TUV and Greens are eliminated, it would be Alliance, and now there's the political climate. I don't think DUP or SF will get a lot of Alliance votes. But I think also that UUP are really not a good prospect for those voters. So SDLP would be a bit more favoured than UUP. This could well put the SDLP candidate over the line before any of the 3 SF candidates.
And now the question is who would qualify between UUP and DUP against the 3 SF to keep a conservative seat, and would the transfers be good ? At this stage, I think they would both be around 5300-5600. Maybe Foster's surplus would keep a running mate in the game, and SDLP's smaller surplus would help UUP more (though it would also help SF candidates). I don't know how well the transfers will be, so I'd say it's difficult to call.
I think we're sure of 2 SF and 1 DUP. 1 SDLP seems likely to me. Then it's a real fight between DUP, UUP and SF for the final seat. But SF did keep the constituency. That was my idea when I gave them the last one. They might do better there than what the poll suggests (compared to Foyle for instance)
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