Northern Ireland polls

[J.G.Harston]

May 15, 2018 23:00:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Part of the problem is in having free movement between the Irish Republic and the UK and then allowing Irish citizens a vote in UK elections. How different would the outcome of such a poll be if it were only open to UK citizens in Northern Ireland (as any referendum should be). For that matter how different might the EU referendum result have been in Northern Ireland had only UK citizens been able to vote (as should have been the case)

It's part of the UK's refusal to acknowledge the Empire has gone (you can have your funny flags and your little parish councils Parliaments, but you're really still British, come here and you can vote and stand for election) and to acknowledge that Ireland is no longer in the UK ("Ireland is not a foreign country" in statute, you can come and go just as through Ireland is Dorset, you can vote and stand for election, you're really British you know).

[spqr]

May 15, 2018 23:35:44 GMT J.G.Harston said:

May 15, 2018 23:00:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Part of the problem is in having free movement between the Irish Republic and the UK and then allowing Irish citizens a vote in UK elections. How different would the outcome of such a poll be if it were only open to UK citizens in Northern Ireland (as any referendum should be). For that matter how different might the EU referendum result have been in Northern Ireland had only UK citizens been able to vote (as should have been the case)

It's part of the UK's refusal to acknowledge the Empire has gone (you can have your funny flags and your little parish councils Parliaments, but you're really still British, come here and you can vote and stand for election) and to acknowledge that Ireland is no longer in the UK ("Ireland is not a foreign country" in statute, you can come and go just as through Ireland is Dorset, you can vote and stand for election, you're really British you know).

Hm. I'm not sure. Constitutional inertia seems a more likely explanation to me than imperial nostalgia.

[Deleted]

May 15, 2018 21:38:24 GMT cogload said:

If NI leaves then what is the point of the Conservative and Unionist Party?

Maintaining the Act of Union 1707. The loss of Ulster, as bad as that may seem would be survivable. The loss of Scotland, or Wales for that matter, would be terminally disastrous for all the home nations.

[Adam in Stroud]

May 16, 2018 2:44:28 GMT spqr said:

May 15, 2018 23:35:44 GMT J.G.Harston said:

It's part of the UK's refusal to acknowledge the Empire has gone (you can have your funny flags and your little parish councils Parliaments, but you're really still British, come here and you can vote and stand for election) and to acknowledge that Ireland is no longer in the UK ("Ireland is not a foreign country" in statute, you can come and go just as through Ireland is Dorset, you can vote and stand for election, you're really British you know).

Hm. I'm not sure. Constitutional inertia seems a more likely explanation to me than imperial nostalgia.

Yes, though I think the original thinking was along the lines of the OP. Of course at the time there were lots of people in the Free State who did consider themselves really British.

[Deleted]

May 15, 2018 23:35:44 GMT J.G.Harston said:

May 15, 2018 23:00:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Part of the problem is in having free movement between the Irish Republic and the UK and then allowing Irish citizens a vote in UK elections. How different would the outcome of such a poll be if it were only open to UK citizens in Northern Ireland (as any referendum should be). For that matter how different might the EU referendum result have been in Northern Ireland had only UK citizens been able to vote (as should have been the case)

It's part of the UK's refusal to acknowledge the Empire has gone (you can have your funny flags and your little parish councils Parliaments, but you're really still British, come here and you can vote and stand for election) and to acknowledge that Ireland is no longer in the UK ("Ireland is not a foreign country" in statute, you can come and go just as through Ireland is Dorset, you can vote and stand for election, you're really British you know).

if this is the case, shouldn’t US citizens and 1/3 of the world be able to vote in UK elections. If a country is no longer part of the UK then their citizens shouldn’t be able to vote in our elections. As for the empire get over it, it’s in the past and people like you need to move on and forward and stop harping on about the past.

[obsie]

May 15, 2018 23:00:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Part of the problem is in having free movement between the Irish Republic and the UK and then allowing Irish citizens a vote in UK elections. How different would the outcome of such a poll be if it were only open to UK citizens in Northern Ireland (as any referendum should be). For that matter how different might the EU referendum result have been in Northern Ireland had only UK citizens been able to vote (as should have been the case)

The last census in 2011 showed 37,833 (2.1% of the population) born in the Republic, not all of whom are going to be of voting age and not all of those are going to be what you would describe as Papists or Fenians. So not very different.

I notice from another thread that for all your professed attachment to Northern Ireland you don't seem to ever have set foot in it. Figures.

[Adam in Stroud]

May 16, 2018 4:57:32 GMT @davidr said:

May 15, 2018 21:38:24 GMT cogload said:

If NI leaves then what is the point of the Conservative and Unionist Party?

Maintaining the Act of Union 1707. The loss of Ulster, as bad as that may seem would be survivable. The loss of Scotland, or Wales for that matter, would be terminally disastrous for all the home nations.

Much as I agree with this, losing NI would be part of a noticeable trend for English Conservatives to lose interest in unionism generally which worries me and would have surprised me 10 years ago. FWIW I blame the rise of the SNP for at least part of it but the view of Scotland as a sink for English money is quite widespread and not unlike the views of the same people on the EU budget.

I don't see the SNP getting a majority for independence any time soon and clearly the Scottish Conservatives are selling themselves as the leading unionist party but I can see my party becoming the main advocate of British unionism in England. A revival of SLAB may change that of course. 

[Deleted]

May 17, 2018 17:00:24 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

May 16, 2018 4:57:32 GMT @davidr said:

Maintaining the Act of Union 1707. The loss of Ulster, as bad as that may seem would be survivable. The loss of Scotland, or Wales for that matter, would be terminally disastrous for all the home nations.

Much as I agree with this, losing NI would be part of a noticeable trend for English Conservatives to lose interest in unionism generally which worries me and would have surprised me 10 years ago. FWIW I blame the rise of the SNP for at least part of it but the view of Scotland as a sink for English money is quite widespread and not unlike the views of the same people on the EU budget.

I don't see the SNP getting a majority for independence any time soon and clearly the Scottish Conservatives are selling themselves as the leading unionist party but I can see my party becoming the main advocate of British unionism in England. A revival of SLAB may change that of course. 

I agree that the rise of English nationalist tendencies in some small parts of the English Conservatives for political reasons are worrying. Though the vast majority of people, especially the young, in my party are staunch Unionists. Indeed last year showed that without Scotland Corbyn, with all that would entail about Russia and antisemitism etc., would be PM. That’s a situation the country has never been in before and hopefully one that caused English Nationalists to take stock.

The “sink for English money” argument among the English population including some I know is an oddly compelling but false one. It worries me if the UK is seen as the same as the EU as they are not similar in any way and the strange idea of people who believe that England would be a better off and a viable medium sized world power without Scotland or Wales is literally insane. The three main home nations need each other because on our own we are insignificant and will be dominated by the nearby truly global powers of France, Germany, the US and to an extent Russia.

As for the Lib Dems, I don’t think you will become the sole Unionist party. I believe this because I don’t think my party will ever abandon the mantle of the Union. My party is interwoven with it, I cannot articulate just how much to most Conservatives the “& Unionist” really means.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 17, 2018 19:36:31 GMT @davidr said:

May 17, 2018 17:00:24 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Much as I agree with this, losing NI would be part of a noticeable trend for English Conservatives to lose interest in unionism generally which worries me and would have surprised me 10 years ago. FWIW I blame the rise of the SNP for at least part of it but the view of Scotland as a sink for English money is quite widespread and not unlike the views of the same people on the EU budget.

I don't see the SNP getting a majority for independence any time soon and clearly the Scottish Conservatives are selling themselves as the leading unionist party but I can see my party becoming the main advocate of British unionism in England. A revival of SLAB may change that of course. 

I agree that the rise of English nationalist tendencies in some small parts of the English Conservatives for political reasons are worrying. Though the vast majority of people, especially the young, in my party are staunch Unionists. Indeed last year showed that without Scotland Corbyn, with all that would entail about Russia and antisemitism etc., would be PM. That’s a situation the country has never been in before and hopefully one that caused English Nationalists to take stock...

What are you talking about? The Conservatives would have an overall majority in the Commons if you remove the Scottish seats

[Deleted]

May 17, 2018 20:27:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 17, 2018 19:36:31 GMT @davidr said:

I agree that the rise of English nationalist tendencies in some small parts of the English Conservatives for political reasons are worrying. Though the vast majority of people, especially the young, in my party are staunch Unionists. Indeed last year showed that without Scotland Corbyn, with all that would entail about Russia and antisemitism etc., would be PM. That’s a situation the country has never been in before and hopefully one that caused English Nationalists to take stock...

What are you talking about? The Conservatives would have an overall majority in the Commons if you remove the Scottish seats

Ok, the rest of my point still stands though.

[cogload]

[iain]

From Survation (changes from GE):
DUP - 31% (-5%)
SF - 27% (-2%)
UUP - 15% (+5%)
APNI - 12% (+4%)
SDLP - 11% (-1%)

[mondialito]

Nov 14, 2018 23:05:58 GMT iain said:

From Survation (changes from GE):
DUP - 31% (-5%)
SF - 27% (-2%)
UUP - 15% (+5%)
APNI - 12% (+4%)
SDLP - 11% (-1%)

Which on uniform swing would lead to:

DUP 8 (-2)

SF 5 (-2)

UUP 2 (+2)

SDLP 2 (+2)

Independent 1

UUP regain Fermanagh and South Tyrone (with a pact) and South Antrim. SDLP regain Foyle and Belfast South.

[iain]

Nov 14, 2018 23:16:44 GMT mondialito said:

Nov 14, 2018 23:05:58 GMT iain said:

From Survation (changes from GE):
DUP - 31% (-5%)
SF - 27% (-2%)
UUP - 15% (+5%)
APNI - 12% (+4%)
SDLP - 11% (-1%)

Which on uniform swing would lead to:

DUP 8 (-2)

SF 5 (-2)

UUP 2 (+2)

SDLP 2 (-2)

Independent 1

UUP regain Fermanagh and South Tyrone (with a pact) and South Antrim. SDLP regain Foyle and Belfast South.

DUP would keep Belfast South on a uniform swing. Of course, uniform swing is a particularly useless instrument in Northern Ireland.

[Deleted]

Nov 21, 2018 1:57:40 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Nov 14, 2018 23:05:58 GMT iain said:

From Survation (changes from GE):
DUP - 31% (-5%)
SF - 27% (-2%)
UUP - 15% (+5%)
APNI - 12% (+4%)
SDLP - 11% (-1%)

That's a brilliant poll for unionists.

UUP gain two:

• Fermanagh & South Tyrone (from SF)
• South Antrim (from DUP)

SDLP gain one:

• Foyle (from SF)

DUP would retain its three Belfast constituencies.

The on-the-ground reality is that the unionist vote is hardening for the DUP in Belfast South and the nationalist vote is hardening in Foyle for Sinn Féin. The South Down constituency contains more moderate/unionist elements to the north-east which Sinn Féin cannot rely on, whereas Foyle is basically a staunch nationalist area with exception of a dwindling unionist population east of the river - because of this the SDLP might win South Down on a good year but I believe Foyle will become safer and safer for Sinn Féin as the years go by, it is an extreme area. 

is it? The heaviest casualties appear to be the DUP which seem to only save face in only losing 1 seat despite a 5 point drop

[seanf]

Nov 21, 2018 8:19:16 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Nov 21, 2018 1:57:40 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

That's a brilliant poll for unionists.

UUP gain two:

• Fermanagh & South Tyrone (from SF)
• South Antrim (from DUP)

SDLP gain one:

• Foyle (from SF)

DUP would retain its three Belfast constituencies.

The on-the-ground reality is that the unionist vote is hardening for the DUP in Belfast South and the nationalist vote is hardening in Foyle for Sinn Féin. The South Down constituency contains more moderate/unionist elements to the north-east which Sinn Féin cannot rely on, whereas Foyle is basically a staunch nationalist area with exception of a dwindling unionist population east of the river - because of this the SDLP might win South Down on a good year but I believe Foyle will become safer and safer for Sinn Féin as the years go by, it is an extreme area. 

is it? The heaviest casualties appear to be the DUP which seem to only save face in only losing 1 seat despite a 5 point drop

In North and South Belfast, I'd expect UUP voters to back the DUP, even on these numbers.

The increase in support for UUP would probably show up in seats like South Antrim (probably a UUP gain) East Londonderry, East Belfast, Upper Bann.

[myth11]

Nov 21, 2018 21:07:15 GMT seanf said:

Nov 21, 2018 8:19:16 GMT @priceofdawn said:

is it? The heaviest casualties appear to be the DUP which seem to only save face in only losing 1 seat despite a 5 point drop

In North and South Belfast, I'd expect UUP voters to back the DUP, even on these numbers.

The increase in support for UUP would probably show up in seats like South Antrim (probably a UUP gain) East Londonderry, East Belfast, Upper Bann.

If UUP stand in North Belfast there would be a good chance Sinn Fein  would gain it.

[seanf]

Nov 21, 2018 21:19:59 GMT myth11 said:

Nov 21, 2018 21:07:15 GMT seanf said:

In North and South Belfast, I'd expect UUP voters to back the DUP, even on these numbers.

The increase in support for UUP would probably show up in seats like South Antrim (probably a UUP gain) East Londonderry, East Belfast, Upper Bann.

If UUP stand in North Belfast there would be a good chance Sinn Fein  would gain it.

I think the UUP vote would be insignificant (under 500).

[cogload]

Lucid talk Irish poll in No deal scenario:

Reunify 57
Stay with UK 43

I think huge statues will be raised to Rees Mogg in "free Derry". The Conservative and Unionist(sic) Party will achieve in 3 years and without a shot being fired what the IRA failed to do in several generations.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

I would be highly skeptical if the effects would be so dramatic.