iain
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Post by iain on Nov 14, 2018 23:05:58 GMT
From Survation (changes from GE): DUP - 31% (-5%) SF - 27% (-2%) UUP - 15% (+5%) APNI - 12% (+4%) SDLP - 11% (-1%)
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Nov 14, 2018 23:16:44 GMT
From Survation (changes from GE): DUP - 31% (-5%) SF - 27% (-2%) UUP - 15% (+5%) APNI - 12% (+4%) SDLP - 11% (-1%) Which on uniform swing would lead to:
DUP 8 (-2) SF 5 (-2) UUP 2 (+2) SDLP 2 (+2) Independent 1
UUP regain Fermanagh and South Tyrone (with a pact) and South Antrim. SDLP regain Foyle and Belfast South.
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 14, 2018 23:19:51 GMT
From Survation (changes from GE): DUP - 31% (-5%) SF - 27% (-2%) UUP - 15% (+5%) APNI - 12% (+4%) SDLP - 11% (-1%) Which on uniform swing would lead to:
DUP 8 (-2) SF 5 (-2) UUP 2 (+2) SDLP 2 (-2) Independent 1
UUP regain Fermanagh and South Tyrone (with a pact) and South Antrim. SDLP regain Foyle and Belfast South.
DUP would keep Belfast South on a uniform swing. Of course, uniform swing is a particularly useless instrument in Northern Ireland.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2018 8:19:16 GMT
From Survation (changes from GE): DUP - 31% (-5%) SF - 27% (-2%) UUP - 15% (+5%) APNI - 12% (+4%) SDLP - 11% (-1%) That's a brilliant poll for unionists. UUP gain two: - Fermanagh & South Tyrone (from SF)
- South Antrim (from DUP)
SDLP gain one: DUP would retain its three Belfast constituencies. The on-the-ground reality is that the unionist vote is hardening for the DUP in Belfast South and the nationalist vote is hardening in Foyle for Sinn Féin. The South Down constituency contains more moderate/unionist elements to the north-east which Sinn Féin cannot rely on, whereas Foyle is basically a staunch nationalist area with exception of a dwindling unionist population east of the river - because of this the SDLP might win South Down on a good year but I believe Foyle will become safer and safer for Sinn Féin as the years go by, it is an extreme area. is it? The heaviest casualties appear to be the DUP which seem to only save face in only losing 1 seat despite a 5 point drop
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Nov 21, 2018 21:07:15 GMT
That's a brilliant poll for unionists. UUP gain two: - Fermanagh & South Tyrone (from SF)
- South Antrim (from DUP)
SDLP gain one: DUP would retain its three Belfast constituencies. The on-the-ground reality is that the unionist vote is hardening for the DUP in Belfast South and the nationalist vote is hardening in Foyle for Sinn Féin. The South Down constituency contains more moderate/unionist elements to the north-east which Sinn Féin cannot rely on, whereas Foyle is basically a staunch nationalist area with exception of a dwindling unionist population east of the river - because of this the SDLP might win South Down on a good year but I believe Foyle will become safer and safer for Sinn Féin as the years go by, it is an extreme area. is it? The heaviest casualties appear to be the DUP which seem to only save face in only losing 1 seat despite a 5 point drop In North and South Belfast, I'd expect UUP voters to back the DUP, even on these numbers. The increase in support for UUP would probably show up in seats like South Antrim (probably a UUP gain) East Londonderry, East Belfast, Upper Bann.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 21, 2018 21:19:59 GMT
is it? The heaviest casualties appear to be the DUP which seem to only save face in only losing 1 seat despite a 5 point drop In North and South Belfast, I'd expect UUP voters to back the DUP, even on these numbers. The increase in support for UUP would probably show up in seats like South Antrim (probably a UUP gain) East Londonderry, East Belfast, Upper Bann. If UUP stand in North Belfast there would be a good chance Sinn Fein would gain it.
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Nov 21, 2018 22:35:37 GMT
In North and South Belfast, I'd expect UUP voters to back the DUP, even on these numbers. The increase in support for UUP would probably show up in seats like South Antrim (probably a UUP gain) East Londonderry, East Belfast, Upper Bann. If UUP stand in North Belfast there would be a good chance Sinn Fein would gain it. I think the UUP vote would be insignificant (under 500).
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Dec 21, 2018 15:03:48 GMT
Lucid talk Irish poll in No deal scenario:
Reunify 57 Stay with UK 43
I think huge statues will be raised to Rees Mogg in "free Derry". The Conservative and Unionist(sic) Party will achieve in 3 years and without a shot being fired what the IRA failed to do in several generations.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 21, 2018 23:15:38 GMT
I would be highly skeptical if the effects would be so dramatic.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 21, 2018 23:36:48 GMT
Lucid talk Irish poll in No deal scenario: Reunify 57 Stay with UK 43 I think huge statues will be raised to Rees Mogg in "free Derry". The Conservative and Unionist(sic) Party will achieve in 3 years and without a shot being fired what the IRA failed to do in several generations. Sadly, from my poiny of view, a BS poll.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on May 13, 2019 11:48:25 GMT
LucidTalk - European Parliament SF - 27.2% (+1.7 on 2014) DUP - 20.2% (-0.7) SDLP - 13.1% (+0.1) UUP - 11.8% (-1.5) APNI - 11.3% (+4.2) TUV - 8.5% (-3.6) Grn - 4.6% (+2.9) UKIP - 1.7% (-2.2) Oth - 1.6% (+0.9)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 13, 2019 12:02:49 GMT
SDLP must have a chance of taking the UUP's seat on those figures?
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iain
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Post by iain on May 13, 2019 12:05:48 GMT
SDLP must have a chance of taking the UUP's seat on those figures? Probably - and APNI would have a chance.
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iain
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Post by iain on May 21, 2019 12:40:08 GMT
LucidTalk 18-19 May: Sinn Fein - 24.8% DUP - 20.6% SDLP - 12.6% UUP - 11.1% APNI - 11.0% TUV - 8.8% Green - 3.1% UKIP - 1.6% Ind Morrice - 0.7% Conservative - 0.1% Ind McCann - 0.1%
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 21, 2019 14:41:05 GMT
LucidTalk 18-19 May: Sinn Fein - 24.8% DUP - 20.6% SDLP - 12.6% UUP - 11.1% APNI - 11.0% TUV - 8.8% Green - 3.1% UKIP - 1.6% Ind Morrice - 0.7% Conservative - 0.1% Ind McCann - 0.1% Translates as: SF 26.3% DUP 21.8% SDLP 13.3% UUP 11.8% APNI 11.6% TUV 9.3% GPNI 3.3% UKIP 1.7% Ind M 0.7% Con 0.1% Ind Mc 0.1%
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carolus
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Post by carolus on May 21, 2019 14:51:39 GMT
Now on LucidTalk's Twitter, although note that those are the figures Including Don't Knows. Excluding DK (changes from last week): SF 26.3 (-0.9) DUP 21.8 (+1.6) SDLP 13.3 (+0.2) UUP 11.8 (nc) Alliance 11.6 (+0.3) TUV 9.3 (+0.8) Green 3.3 (-1.3) UKIP 1.7 (nc) Other 0.9 (-0.7)
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 21, 2019 14:56:54 GMT
Now on LucidTalk's Twitter, although note that those are the figures Including Don't Knows. Excluding DK (changes from last week): SF 26.3 (-0.9) DUP 21.8 (+1.6) SDLP 13.3 (+0.2) UUP 11.8 (nc) Alliance 11.6 (+0.3) TUV 9.3 (+0.8) Green 3.3 (-1.3) UKIP 1.7 (nc) Other 0.9 (-0.7)
Good for Colum Eastwood after the pressure from Naomi Long. It is still all in play for that third seat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2019 12:18:10 GMT
/photo/4
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Post by gasman2019 on Sept 11, 2019 12:51:53 GMT
Demographics will lead to a United Ireland at some stage.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 11, 2019 13:54:09 GMT
Demographics will lead to a United Ireland at some stage. Unless the Anti-Unionists are right, Brexit is a disaster for Northern Ireland, and a good number of them emigrate to the Republic.
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