Northern Ireland polls

[iain]

Changes from the Assembly Election:
DUP 33.6% (+5.5%)
SF 32.4% (+4.5%)
UUP 10.3% (-2.6%)
SDLP 8.6% (-3.3%)
APNI 8.0% (-1.1%)
TUV 2.3% (-0.3%)
PBP 1.7% (-0.1%)
GRN 0.9% (-1.4%)
PUP 0.4% (-0.3%)
UKIP 0.2% (-)
CON 0.2% (-0.1%)
OTH 0.4% (-2.1%)

[jamie]

Interestingly LT underestimated the unionist vote (mainly at the expense of others) at the GE which could mean there is a first preference unionist majority, and they would definitely win a majority of seats once you account for poor transfer to SF.

[Deleted]

Mar 10, 2018 14:58:18 GMT jamie said:

Interestingly LT underestimated the unionist vote (mainly at the expense of others) at the GE which could mean there is a first preference unionist majority, and they would definitely win a majority of seats once you account for poor transfer to SF.

but thete aren't transfers in the GE

[iain]

Mar 11, 2018 0:22:30 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Mar 10, 2018 14:58:18 GMT jamie said:

Interestingly LT underestimated the unionist vote (mainly at the expense of others) at the GE which could mean there is a first preference unionist majority, and they would definitely win a majority of seats once you account for poor transfer to SF.

but thete aren't transfers in the GE

It’s a poll for the Assembly

[Deleted]

Mar 11, 2018 10:05:42 GMT iain said:

Mar 11, 2018 0:22:30 GMT @priceofdawn said:

but thete aren't transfers in the GE

It’s a poll for the Assembly

is LT known for underestimating the unionist vote in Assembly elections too or is it just the GE

[jamie]

Mar 11, 2018 10:12:02 GMT @priceofdawn said:

is LT known for underestimating the unionist vote in Assembly elections too or is it just the GE

I don't think there's a difference based on whether its assembly or Westminster. The problem was for the Assembly they didn't see the nationalist surge (or the substantial increase in turnout generally) while for Westminster they underestimated the unionist vote, or more accurately the DUP. They seem to be showing the same gap (i.e. essentially none) between the DUP and SF as they did at the GE, despite the fact the gap was substantially larger in reality. I don't see any reason for this to be the case, so I suspect they are underestimating the DUP again. 

[Deleted]

Mar 11, 2018 11:46:09 GMT jamie said:

Mar 11, 2018 10:12:02 GMT @priceofdawn said:

is LT known for underestimating the unionist vote in Assembly elections too or is it just the GE

I don't think there's a difference based on whether its assembly or Westminster. The problem was for the Assembly they didn't see the nationalist surge (or the substantial increase in turnout generally) while for Westminster they underestimated the unionist vote, or more accurately the DUP. They seem to be showing the same gap (i.e. essentially none) between the DUP and SF as they did at the GE, despite the fact the gap was substantially larger in reality. I don't see any reason for this to be the case, so I suspect they are underestimating the DUP again. 

to all intents and purposes they are governing from Westminister?

[jamie]

Mar 11, 2018 11:50:24 GMT @priceofdawn said:

to all intents and purposes they are governing from Westminister?

Doesn't really make any difference whether the election is Westminster or Assembly. People know whether they are voting unionist or nationalist long before considerations of actual governance come into play. Even at the last Assembly election more people than ever voted DUP and their 1st preference share barely declined. It's simply a turnout game and said turnout would look the same as it was at the GE if there was an Assembly election tomorrow. 

[cogload]

Oh.

If I was a Conservative and Unionist I would shit myself on those figures.

[beastofbedfordshire]

Leave and remain continue to be within margin of error of each other.
YAWN

[Deleted]

May 15, 2018 16:49:06 GMT cogload said:

Oh.

If I was a Conservative and Unionist I would shit myself on those figures.

Why? It’s one poll at the most contentious time in the Brexit process, in the midst of shameful lies and scaremongering from Remainers, the self confessed Irish Nationalist government of the republic and the EU designed to damage the territorial integrity of the UK and as beastofbedfordshire pointed out it’s within the margin of error. If anything I’d expect it to be higher.

[goose]

May 15, 2018 16:49:06 GMT cogload said:

Oh.

If I was a Conservative and Unionist I would shit myself on those figures.

Confirmed, underwear is brown.

[cogload]

Well at least goose has an idea which way the wind is blowing.

[beastofbedfordshire]

Whoosh

[cogload]

Whoosh indeed. You whooshing senior Tories as well?

[myth11]

May 15, 2018 18:51:12 GMT cogload said:

Whoosh indeed. You whooshing senior Tories as well?

If ni does leave it gives the cons a maj of 3 

[cogload]

If NI leaves then what is the point of the Conservative and Unionist Party?

[myth11]

May 15, 2018 21:38:24 GMT cogload said:

If NI leaves then what is the point of the Conservative and Unionist Party?

The Liberal Unionists have long disappeared so its just a name esp as the uup left the cons in 1972 with a short lived change of heart from 2009 to 2012.

[colm]

Northern Ireland was created with the intention of having a constant protestant majority which would never be under threat. At its creation Northern Ireland had a 2:1 protestant majority. The idea was to have an inbuilt constant governing protestant majority. The fact there any potential poll would even be close was never supposed to be a possibility.

[Pete Whitehead]

Part of the problem is in having free movement between the Irish Republic and the UK and then allowing Irish citizens a vote in UK elections. How different would the outcome of such a poll be if it were only open to UK citizens in Northern Ireland (as any referendum should be). For that matter how different might the EU referendum result have been in Northern Ireland had only UK citizens been able to vote (as should have been the case)