obsie
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Post by obsie on Dec 8, 2017 23:14:28 GMT
We haven’t gone away you know. No order to dump royal wedding mugs then?
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 8, 2017 23:16:06 GMT
We haven’t gone away you know. No order to dump royal wedding mugs then? No more than Wee County folk stockpile sniper rifles and JPII mugs. We are real people not stereotypes, you know.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Dec 8, 2017 23:19:45 GMT
No order to dump royal wedding mugs then? No more than Wee County folk stockpile sniper rifles and JPII mugs. We are real people not stereotypes, you know. I'm sure you are, but it's just that there aren't an awful lot of you in the greater scheme of things. (And I think you're mixing me up with Irish Observer - I'm not from Louth.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 23:20:21 GMT
and my father was a atheist supporting hearts nationalist
Someone must inform your council that daleks can fly
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 8, 2017 23:45:39 GMT
No more than Wee County folk stockpile sniper rifles and JPII mugs. We are real people not stereotypes, you know. I'm sure you are, but it's just that there aren't an awful lot of you in the greater scheme of things. (And I think you're mixing me up with Irish Observer - I'm not from Louth.) More than you'd imagine. While anecdote does not pluralise as data, I was very amused when leaving Newry Town FC (as was) about 12 years ago and having sectarian abuse shouted at us 'Orange bastard' Bangor fans- all 12 of us in that group were Catholics, and I know from many heated discussions on the way back from away games that all supported the continuation of the Unon. Didn't change the fact that we'd lost in the play-offs again, mind. Now, North Down is not normal for Ulster (and as a southern Mourne man, Newcastle counts as North Down anyway), but there's a hell of a lot of us out there. Oh, and apologies for the confusion- I can't imagine many worse insults than being thought of as a Dundalk man. (part from being confused as a Armagh man- I rightfully abuse a mate for being an orange bastard- hes's from the Garvaghy Road and now lives in deepest West Belfast. Up Down! Mainly down )
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 9, 2017 3:56:56 GMT
Would you care to outline those steps for us. Certainly. As many on here have already said, Protestants are leaving NI to find opportunities elsewhere while the catholic population have a greater tendancy to stay. NI is a key part of our precious Union so we can encourage the economic liberalisation there allowing more private investment to the region. This will encourage more internal migration within the UK which in turn will allign the demographics of NI more closely with the mainland. The issue is than almost no company wants to settle there. It's politically unstable and infrastructure is on Eastern Europe levels (including roads).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 9, 2017 23:15:21 GMT
Will be interesting to see if this result is replicated in any future polls. Have to agree with ntyuk1707 that it doesn't look trustworthy considering past polls have 65%+ support for the union. The question itself and the numerous questions beforehand are not exactly neutral regarding the merits of the EU/Brexit, and LucidTalk in the past have generally underrepresented the DUP (by a lot at the GE) and overestimated 'moderate' parties which likely means they under sample the number of 'hard' unionists. Also, those nationality numbers are way out. Yes, they probably narrowed since the census, but those numbers are completely contradictory to actual official data we have on national identity.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Dec 10, 2017 3:10:41 GMT
Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but.... Being within the margin of error is pretty uncomfortable for those of us who are in favour of the UK, especially as this simply wasn't a live issue two years ago. As with most polls a consistent trend will worry memory than a one-off. (I daresay neilm will be happy enough and hoping for a similar move in Scotland!) You are quite correct!
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Dec 10, 2017 12:20:02 GMT
(and as a southern Mourne man, Newcastle counts as North Down anyway) Good luck arguing that at a Boundary Commission hearing.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 10, 2018 13:25:20 GMT
Changes from the Assembly Election: DUP 33.6% (+5.5%) SF 32.4% (+4.5%) UUP 10.3% (-2.6%) SDLP 8.6% (-3.3%) APNI 8.0% (-1.1%) TUV 2.3% (-0.3%) PBP 1.7% (-0.1%) GRN 0.9% (-1.4%) PUP 0.4% (-0.3%) UKIP 0.2% (-) CON 0.2% (-0.1%) OTH 0.4% (-2.1%)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 10, 2018 14:58:18 GMT
Interestingly LT underestimated the unionist vote (mainly at the expense of others) at the GE which could mean there is a first preference unionist majority, and they would definitely win a majority of seats once you account for poor transfer to SF.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 0:22:30 GMT
Interestingly LT underestimated the unionist vote (mainly at the expense of others) at the GE which could mean there is a first preference unionist majority, and they would definitely win a majority of seats once you account for poor transfer to SF. but thete aren't transfers in the GE
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 11, 2018 10:05:42 GMT
Interestingly LT underestimated the unionist vote (mainly at the expense of others) at the GE which could mean there is a first preference unionist majority, and they would definitely win a majority of seats once you account for poor transfer to SF. but thete aren't transfers in the GE It’s a poll for the Assembly
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 10:12:02 GMT
but thete aren't transfers in the GE It’s a poll for the Assembly is LT known for underestimating the unionist vote in Assembly elections too or is it just the GE
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 11, 2018 11:46:09 GMT
is LT known for underestimating the unionist vote in Assembly elections too or is it just the GE I don't think there's a difference based on whether its assembly or Westminster. The problem was for the Assembly they didn't see the nationalist surge (or the substantial increase in turnout generally) while for Westminster they underestimated the unionist vote, or more accurately the DUP. They seem to be showing the same gap (i.e. essentially none) between the DUP and SF as they did at the GE, despite the fact the gap was substantially larger in reality. I don't see any reason for this to be the case, so I suspect they are underestimating the DUP again.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 11:50:24 GMT
is LT known for underestimating the unionist vote in Assembly elections too or is it just the GE I don't think there's a difference based on whether its assembly or Westminster. The problem was for the Assembly they didn't see the nationalist surge (or the substantial increase in turnout generally) while for Westminster they underestimated the unionist vote, or more accurately the DUP. They seem to be showing the same gap (i.e. essentially none) between the DUP and SF as they did at the GE, despite the fact the gap was substantially larger in reality. I don't see any reason for this to be the case, so I suspect they are underestimating the DUP again. to all intents and purposes they are governing from Westminister?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 11, 2018 16:59:52 GMT
to all intents and purposes they are governing from Westminister? Doesn't really make any difference whether the election is Westminster or Assembly. People know whether they are voting unionist or nationalist long before considerations of actual governance come into play. Even at the last Assembly election more people than ever voted DUP and their 1st preference share barely declined. It's simply a turnout game and said turnout would look the same as it was at the GE if there was an Assembly election tomorrow.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 15, 2018 16:49:06 GMT
Oh.
If I was a Conservative and Unionist I would shit myself on those figures.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on May 15, 2018 17:27:09 GMT
Leave and remain continue to be within margin of error of each other. YAWN
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2018 17:43:25 GMT
Oh. If I was a Conservative and Unionist I would shit myself on those figures. Why? It’s one poll at the most contentious time in the Brexit process, in the midst of shameful lies and scaremongering from Remainers, the self confessed Irish Nationalist government of the republic and the EU designed to damage the territorial integrity of the UK and as beastofbedfordshire pointed out it’s within the margin of error. If anything I’d expect it to be higher.
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