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Post by Devonian on Jun 16, 2013 19:50:20 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2013 20:04:27 GMT
These are voting intentions for Stormont, not Westminster - changes since 2011: DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP - 1.4% Alliance + 3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Good news for the Alliance. They only prompted for those parties who won seats last time - would be interesting to see what would have happened if UKIP had been prompted for. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2013 20:56:39 GMT
These are voting intentions for Stormont, not Westminster - changes since 2011: DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP - 1.4% Alliance + 3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Good news for the Alliance. They only prompted for those parties who won seats last time - would be interesting to see what would have happened if UKIP had been prompted for. Do they have any kind of a record? Although they're a member of the BPC which is something at least. |
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Post by Devonian on Jun 16, 2013 22:06:02 GMT
These are voting intentions for Stormont, not Westminster Quite right. I should have mentioned that in my post. Corrected. |
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Post by erlend on Jun 16, 2013 22:37:29 GMT
The question on a border poll was interesting. 4% of Protestants voted for united Ireland within 20 years. But 40% of Catholics (who voted) said no to that. A lot of them must vote SF. And I am sure that the Shinners know that.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,832 
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Post by john07 on Jun 17, 2013 0:47:00 GMT
DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP -1.4% Alliance +3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Are those changes based on percentage of the electorate or percentage of their previous vote? I am rather confused. Something does not seem right. Add that up and you end up with +6.7%. Where have the extra votes come from? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 17, 2013 2:28:16 GMT
The question on a border poll was interesting. 4% of Protestants voted for united Ireland within 20 years. But 40% of Catholics (who voted) said no to that. A lot of them must vote SF. And I am sure that the Shinners know that. This isn't even an open secret. Remember that even the terms "Unionist" and "Nationalist" do not in NI mean quite what they mean outside it. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 17, 2013 9:55:17 GMT
It says everything that the fact this poll puts the UUP within a whisker of falling into FIFTH place has not been commented on yet.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 17, 2013 9:57:21 GMT
DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP -1.4% Alliance +3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Are those changes based on percentage of the electorate or percentage of their previous vote? I am rather confused. Something does not seem right. Add that up and you end up with +6.7%. Where have the extra votes come from? Changes are based on 1st preference vote from 2011 - but your question made me check and they've lumped won't vote together with others as an option, so there's no percentage for unprompted parties/independants - hence the anomaly, so in reality all the figures are likely to be down a bit. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 17, 2013 11:09:09 GMT
Changes are based on 1st preference vote from 2011 - but your question made me check and they've lumped won't vote together with others as an option, so there's no percentage for unprompted parties/independants - hence the anomaly, so in reality all the figures are likely to be down a bit. Both wikipedia and BBC websites seem to have percentage figures which don't quite match the votes given for 2011  I've done a bit of playing around - assuming a similar turnout to 2011, this poll would give: (with changes from my calculations of 2011 percentages): DUP 29.6 (-1.0) SF 27.0 (-0.5) SDLP 12.1 (-2.4) UUP 10.6 (-2.9) All 10.5 (+2.7) Grn 3.5 (+2.6) TUV 3.1 (+0.5) Oth 3.7 (+1.0) |
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Post by irish observer on Jun 17, 2013 13:15:07 GMT
Traditionally six county opinion polls have underestimated both SF and the DUP as they have been seen as extremists and then provided different results on election day.
I never heard of this company before I must say. There were some interesting results regarding attitudes to the Police. When asked "If a close relative wanted to join the PSNI would you encourage them?" 25% said yes, 10% said no and 65% refused to respond. Protestants had a 64% refusal rate and Catholics a 77% rate while the corresponding yes rates were 32% and 10%.
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Post by irish observer on Sept 17, 2013 13:31:42 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2013 0:04:32 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 7, 2014 19:28:49 GMT
In recent weeks I have become convinced that the results from Northern Ireland at the next election will be crucial to the formation of a government and yet I have not been able to find any polls asking voiting intentions at the next general election. If polls have been published then could they be summarised here (UUP, DUP, All, SDLP, SF, Others) and any new polls added here as well?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2014 21:15:24 GMT
Okay - If Labour is close to a majority, the SDLP are likely to still have three seats, as will Sylvia Herman in North Down, which will be 4 MPs whipping with Labour on most issues.
The 5 Sinn Fein won't take their seats.
The DUP have a mix of people, some of whom would possibly lean towards Labour economicallly but not trust them in terms of Irish politics.
If Naomi Long holds Belfast East (by no means certain) for the APNI, she might lean towards Labour but she whips with the Liberal Democrats.
I can't really see the UUP gaining any seats.
Opinion Polls in Northern Irleand are few and far between, and with good reason.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 7, 2014 22:23:43 GMT
It would probably the worst nightmare of a Prime Minister, having to rely on votes from Northern Ireland for your majority.
In the past it wouldn't have been too bad for a Tory PM with the UUP as partners but with DUP it would be much less appealing.
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Post by Devonian on Jun 8, 2014 6:35:39 GMT
bump
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Post by Devonian on Jun 8, 2014 6:37:59 GMT
In recent weeks I have become convinced that the results from Northern Ireland at the next election will be crucial to the formation of a government and yet I have not been able to find any polls asking voiting intentions at the next general election. If polls have been published then could they be summarised here (UUP, DUP, All, SDLP, SF, Others) and any new polls added here as well? The only company the I'm aware of doing NI polls is Lucidtalk which very occasionally does polls or the Belfast Telegraph, I've just bumped to thread that mentions their polls. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 9, 2014 14:56:17 GMT
The DUP is in any case more or less openly corrupt and will quite happily work with any major party in exchange for ££££££ for its pet projects. Democracy, fuck yeah!
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 10, 2014 11:24:35 GMT
The DUP is in any case more or less openly corrupt and will quite happily work with any major party in exchange for ££££££ for its pet projects. Democracy, fuck yeah! Well yes, the DUP will work with anyone for the right price but you would constantly have to be buying them off. Every time you give in to one of their demands it would only encourage them to ask for more the next time there is a contentious vote. |
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