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Post by finsobruce on Aug 29, 2021 18:23:20 GMT
Diving into the data the figures are actually awesome for the UUP Beattie is by far the most popular leader in NI and Swann is by far the most popular Minister, still a long way to go till the election but if I was the UUP I’d be looking to becoming the first unionist party once again. Remember when a young (for the province) politician left the UUP almost immediately after it stopped being the largest Unionist party? Who would have though a UUP revival would be the thing that could stop him becoming the leader of the leading Unionist party at an election? "Karma"
or something.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 29, 2021 18:38:59 GMT
I was astonished (at the low position of the DUP) when I saw that tweet this morning, but when I clicked on it I found that most of the replies were about the decline in support for the Alliance Party. Of course that decline is only recent and from a relatively high position. I think people are also missing the rise of the TUV, even more right wing than the DUP looks like moderate DUP voters are going UUP and more right wing voters going TUV I have had the TUV Jim's shop as preferred choice among this brand of Nats for some time, but have yet to find a vote matcher that reveals my more right wing inclination.
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Post by therealriga on Aug 29, 2021 19:31:43 GMT
There's another possibility in this, which is that the Lucid Talk poll is, as it often is, a load of old tosh. I can well believe Alliance will be up, DUP will be down a good bit, and TUV benefitting from the latter but the figures look suspect.
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Post by relique on Aug 29, 2021 22:00:18 GMT
There's another possibility in this, which is that the Lucid Talk poll is, as it often is, a load of old tosh. I can well believe Alliance will be up, DUP will be down a good bit, and TUV benefitting from the latter but the figures look suspect. There's probably a bit more inertia in the northern irish electorate than in those studies, but the trends' indications are probably accurate.
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Post by seanryanj on Aug 29, 2021 23:19:48 GMT
There's another possibility in this, which is that the Lucid Talk poll is, as it often is, a load of old tosh. I can well believe Alliance will be up, DUP will be down a good bit, and TUV benefitting from the latter but the figures look suspect. There's probably a bit more inertia in the northern irish electorate than in those studies, but the trends' indications are probably accurate. In fairness swann has preformed well under difficult circumstances...in this years elections snp and Labour in Wales and even tories in England did well and all had the health jobs! Beastie at least can get some soft unionists back from all! It is the tuv vote that is head scratching?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 9:05:50 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 30, 2021 9:33:48 GMT
Haven't we been discussing this poll on this thread for the past couple of days?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2021 9:34:27 GMT
Yes, that's the poll we have been discussing
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 30, 2021 9:49:59 GMT
Do they ever include VI figures for Westminster? Would be interesting to see those as well as for the Assembly.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Aug 30, 2021 9:55:04 GMT
Haven't we been discussing this poll on this thread for the past couple of days? Ah, that requires having a ‘receive’ mode rather than just ‘transmit’.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 10:26:39 GMT
🙄
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 11:49:28 GMT
Haven't we been discussing this poll on this thread for the past couple of days? In my defence, I only saw the tweet today and don't really go to this thread.
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 5, 2021 0:31:55 GMT
Latest bbc view poll
SF 23.5 DUP 20.6 ALL 17.3 UUP 13 SDLP 11.4 TUV 5.6 GP 3.9 Oth 4.7
Probably more interesting..
More room for dup to play 1st min card Strong showing by alliance and very transfer friendly Otherwise uup will be disappointed Sdlp and sf nothing to write home about!
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 5, 2021 1:04:58 GMT
Latest bbc view poll SF 23.5 DUP 20.6 ALL 17.3 UUP 13 SDLP 11.4 TUV 5.6 GP 3.9 Oth 4.7 Probably more interesting.. More room for dup to play 1st min card Strong showing by alliance and very transfer friendly Otherwise uup will be disappointed Sdlp and sf nothing to write home about! Most pundits are slow to put alliance up there in seats put at this stage you have to say they have a chance of 50% increase in vote and thats put them above other runners who might transfer to them. Dup can defo push the unionist vote...and can sf squeeze the sdlp vote Eastwood is a strong performer! The debates will be interesting
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Nov 13, 2021 11:28:57 GMT
New LucidTalk (changes from last poll)
Sinn Fein - 24 (-1) DUP - 18 (+5) APNI - 15 (+2) UUP - 14 (-2) SDLP - 12 (-1) TUV - 11 (-3) Green - 2 (-) PBP - 2 (-)
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 12, 2021 12:30:08 GMT
There's a new big Lord Ashcroft poll of Northern Ireland.
Some headline figures are:
54% are in favour of the union in a border poll vs. 46% in favour of reunification. However, the age disparity is huge. 71% of those aged 18-24 are in favour of reunification whilst only 25% of those aged 65+ are.
55% are in favour of a border poll in the next decade whilst 45% are against.
57% are in favour of keeping the NI protocol vs. 43% against.
67% think Brexit makes reunification more likely whilst only 13% think it makes it less likely.
Majorities in both unionist and nationalist communities think the cost of living and taxation would go up in a united Ireland although they diverge greatly on things like investment, education standards and unemployment.
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