Northern Ireland polls

[Deleted]

Wasnt the last border poll almost unanimous in favour the uk

[The Bishop]

Yes, but only because the "nationalist" community boycotted it en masse. So pretty meaningless in that sense.

[afleitch]

Not a bad start actually, if there was a campaign.

[Deleted]

Probably a better base than for scottish independence

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 26, 2017 11:31:44 GMT @benjl said:

Oct 26, 2017 10:44:10 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, but only because the "nationalist" community boycotted it en masse. So pretty meaningless in that sense.

They boycotted as they knew they would loose, as the Tories are with opposition motions at the minute. It was still a clear mandate for the union, don't be fooled by nationalist tricks.

It was 1973; things have changed quite dramatically. As for "nationalist tricks", it was the calling of the poll at such a time that was foolhardy.
@benji, it was before you were born and in a different time and called by the political leaders of the majority community within a gerrymandered state. To suggest that the courageous Gerry Fitt, who led the Nationalist boycott of the poll, was indulging in tricks is to malign a remarkable figure.

[Deleted]

Yeah Gerry Fitt was pretty remarkable and shouldnt be dismissed

[iain]

Oct 26, 2017 19:35:24 GMT afleitch said:

Not a bad start actually, if there was a campaign.

Apart from, somehow, I doubt the Northern Irish will be quite as elastic as the Scots ...

[An Sionnach Flannbhuí]

Oct 26, 2017 21:06:44 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Oct 26, 2017 11:31:44 GMT @benjl said:

They boycotted as they knew they would loose, as the Tories are with opposition motions at the minute. It was still a clear mandate for the union, don't be fooled by nationalist tricks.

It was 1973; things have changed quite dramatically. As for "nationalist tricks", it was the calling of the poll at such a time that was foolhardy.
@benji, it was before you were born and in a different time and called by the political leaders of the majority community within a gerrymandered state. To suggest that the courageous Gerry Fitt, who led the Nationalist boycott of the poll, was indulging in tricks is to malign a remarkable figure.

I suspect the "trick" referred to is those who try to delegitimise the 1973 poll today by reference to the nationalist boycott, rather than a reference to Gerry Fitt. The "remain" vote was still 57% of the registered electorate, so "remain" plainly won regardless of turnout. So assertions that the vote was "pretty meaningless" can't go unchallenged.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 26, 2017 21:40:21 GMT An Sionnach Flannbhuí said:

Oct 26, 2017 21:06:44 GMT CatholicLeft said:

It was 1973; things have changed quite dramatically. As for "nationalist tricks", it was the calling of the poll at such a time that was foolhardy.
@benji, it was before you were born and in a different time and called by the political leaders of the majority community within a gerrymandered state. To suggest that the courageous Gerry Fitt, who led the Nationalist boycott of the poll, was indulging in tricks is to malign a remarkable figure.

I suspect the "trick" referred to is those who try to delegitimise the 1973 poll today by reference to the nationalist boycott, rather than a reference to Gerry Fitt. The "remain" vote was still 57% of the registered electorate, so "remain" plainly won regardless of turnout. So assertions that the vote was "pretty meaningless" can't go unchallenged.

To be fair to The Bishop on this occassion, I think he was merely saying that making comparisons between the % for "remain" in that poll and that in the opinion poll cited are meaningless, hence 'meaningless in that sense' rather than saying the outcome of the 1973 poll was meaningless

[An Sionnach Flannbhuí]

Oct 26, 2017 21:54:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 26, 2017 21:40:21 GMT An Sionnach Flannbhuí said:

I suspect the "trick" referred to is those who try to delegitimise the 1973 poll today by reference to the nationalist boycott, rather than a reference to Gerry Fitt. The "remain" vote was still 57% of the registered electorate, so "remain" plainly won regardless of turnout. So assertions that the vote was "pretty meaningless" can't go unchallenged.

To be fair to The Bishop on this occassion, I think he was merely saying that making comparisons between the % for "remain" in that poll and that in the opinion poll cited are meaningless, hence 'meaningless in that sense' rather than saying the outcome of the 1973 poll was meaningless

Yes, it is meaningless to say it was a 98% vote in 1973 and has fallen to (less than 98%) since.

[cogload]

Northern Irish Unionism

For whom the bell tolls
The bell tolls for thee:

[beastofbedfordshire]

Dec 7, 2017 17:49:05 GMT cogload said:

Northern Irish Unionism

For whom the bell tolls
The bell tolls for thee:

Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error.

[CatholicLeft]

Dec 7, 2017 18:21:34 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

Dec 7, 2017 17:49:05 GMT cogload said:

Northern Irish Unionism

For whom the bell tolls
The bell tolls for thee:

Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error.

Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but....

[Adam in Stroud]

Dec 7, 2017 21:27:46 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Dec 7, 2017 18:21:34 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error.

Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but....

Being within the margin of error is pretty uncomfortable for those of us who are in favour of the UK, especially as this simply wasn't a live issue two years ago. As with most polls a consistent trend will worry memory than a one-off.

(I daresay neilm will be happy enough and hoping for a similar move in Scotland!)

[beastofbedfordshire]

Dec 7, 2017 21:27:46 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Dec 7, 2017 18:21:34 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error.

Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but....

Of course there is also the matter of an increase in the proportion of catholics in NI. I've heard somewhere that they may make up the plurality soon, if not already. Time will tell if a "republican" party will be the largest at stormont and/or Westminster which would spell disaster for the Union.

[Deleted]

I think Westminister is more likely under the new boundaries SF already ahead

[beastofbedfordshire]

Dec 7, 2017 21:49:04 GMT @priceofdawn said:

I think Westminister is more likely under the new boundaries SF already ahead

It's unlikely those boundaries would pass through though, but still we are on course for it to happen quite soon.

[obsie]

It's a mixture of things.

Some of it is due to demographic drift with older predominantly Protestant cohorts dying off and being replaced by younger, proportionately more Catholic, cohorts.

But Brexit - and particularly Brexit being followed up by a Conservative/DUP alliance at Westminster and effectively at Stormont - has pulled the rug from beneath a lot of soft nationalist or Alliance-voting Catholics who were content with the status quo post-GFA and had no desire to rock the boat. Suddenly finding the boat being rocked by others means that there's no advantage in being moderate. In addition, a lot of neutrals who don't view themselves as belonging to either tribe are not going to have any enthusiasm for the DUP being allowed to call the shots locally without any restraint from the UK government or for the prospect of Rees-Moggery or Govery.

[beastofbedfordshire]

The union has survived hard left governments in westminster so I doubt Brexit will produce much of a dent in the support for Unionism. What does concern me is the continuation of the increase of the catholic population. Steps must be taken to preserve the Union from this specific threat.

[Deleted]

In the last Assembly elections the unionist vote lost their maj for the first time.

Bit unfair to refer to Macmillan has hard left