Northern Ireland polls

[CatholicLeft]

ntyuk1707, this shows a real ignorance of the UUP's history, which had a strong labour base at one time. Several senior UUP politicians were Labour men at heart, not least the late and lamented Harold McCusker, Michael McGimpsey (former MLA and Minister), Chris McGimpsey, Sylvia Hermon (who left the UUP over the UCUNF farrago), Fred Cobain (former MLA and in the DUP since 2013). To swallow the Tory shilling who!e would be the final nail in the coffin for the UUP, which has lost most of its working class support to the DUP already.

[goose]

DUP 28.9
SF 28.1
SDLP 13.8
UUP 15.4
APNI 9.9
TUV 0.1
Green 0.6
Conservative 0.2
PBP 0.6
Others 2.4

June 2017
LucidTalk

[thetop]

Jun 5, 2017 18:48:07 GMT goose said:

DUP 28.9 (+3.2)
SF 28.1 (+3.6)
SDLP 13.8 (-0.1)
UUP 15.4 (-0.6)
APNI 9.9 (+1.3)
TUV 0.1 (-1.2)
Green 0.6 (-0.4)
Conservative 0.2 (-1.1)
PBP 0.6 (+0.6)
Others 2.4

June 2017
LucidTalk

Changes from the last GE in parentheses.

[cogload]

There is only one way this is heading and it aint good for Unionists.

[curiousliberal]

Jun 5, 2017 20:53:30 GMT cogload said:

There is only one way this is heading and it aint good for Unionists.

It isn't good for moderates, either. With the exception of the Alliance Party, they're all falling back to the nutters in the DUP, SF and PBP. 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Lucidtalk have issued seat projections - they are basically predicting only one seat will change: SF gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from UU.

[CatholicLeft]

Not sure about this, as I think Sinn Fein really are breathing down Margaret Richie's neck in South Down.

[clyde1998]

Jun 7, 2017 9:17:48 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Lucidtalk have issued seat projections - they are basically predicting only one seat will change: SF gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from UU.

IIRC, that's what they predicted in their last projection - so, assuming this projections are correct, we're heading for quite a dull election in Northern Ireland in terms of seat changes. It looks like the magic number will be 321 seats once Sinn Fein, the Speaker and Deputy Speakers are taken into account.

[clyde1998]

LucidTalk Forecast:
North Antrim - DUP 100%
East Antrim - DUP 100%
Belfast West - SF 100%
North Down - Ind 100%
Mid-Ulster - SF 100%
West Tyrone - SF 100%
East Londonderry - DUP 100%
Lagan Valley - DUP 100%
Strangford - DUP 100%
Newry & Armagh - SF 100% (otherwise UUP or SDLP)
Belfast North - DUP 80% (otherwise SF)
Upper Bann - DUP 80% (otherwise UUP or SF)
Foyle - SDLP 75% (otherwise SF)
Belfast South - SDLP 60% (otherwise DUP)
South Antirm - UUP 55% (otherwise DUP)
Belfast East - DUP 55% (otherwise Alliance)
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - SF 55% (otherwise UUP)
South Down - SDLP 55% (otherwise SF)

[curiousliberal]

Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life.

CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around.

[iain]

curiousliberal

Look at the assembly results for South Down

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 7, 2017 9:47:39 GMT curiousliberal said:

Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life.

CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around.

curiousliberal
South Down Assembly election result 2nd March, 2017 turnout 66.2% (up 9.4% on GE in 2015)

Sinn Fein: 19, 083 (38.7%)
SDLP:        12, 443 (25.1%)

That is going to take a lot of Unionist backing to overturn, even if some SF voters vote for Richie at the GE.

[clyde1998]

Belfast South will be very interesting:

2017 Assembly election:
DUP - 20.8% (-1.4 on 2015 Westminster election)
SDLP - 19.4% (-5.1)
All - 17.8% (+0.6)
SF - 17.7% (+3.8)
Grn - 9.9% (+4.2)
UUP - 9.0% (-0.1)
Oth - 5.4% (-2.0)

I imagine that Sinn Fein, the Greens and the UUP will do worse compared to the Assembly vote here. That's probably contributing to the LucidTalk prediction of an SDLP hold.

[curiousliberal]

Jun 7, 2017 10:19:12 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jun 7, 2017 9:47:39 GMT curiousliberal said:

Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life.

CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around.

curiousliberal
South Down Assembly election result 2nd March, 2017 turnout 66.2% (up 9.4% on GE in 2015)

Sinn Fein: 19, 083 (38.7%)
SDLP:        12, 443 (25.1%)

That is going to take a lot of Unionist backing to overturn, even if some SF voters vote for Richie at the GE.

Surely the massive discrepancy between the GE result in 2015 and the Assembly result just 2 years later is a directly result of Ritchie having a large personal vote? In a unionist/nationalist contest I appreciate this would matter much less, but could it make a difference in a nationalist/nationalist fight like this one?

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 7, 2017 23:55:44 GMT curiousliberal said:

Jun 7, 2017 10:19:12 GMT CatholicLeft said:

curiousliberal
South Down Assembly election result 2nd March, 2017 turnout 66.2% (up 9.4% on GE in 2015)

Sinn Fein: 19, 083 (38.7%)
SDLP:        12, 443 (25.1%)

That is going to take a lot of Unionist backing to overturn, even if some SF voters vote for Richie at the GE.

Surely the massive discrepancy between the GE result in 2015 and the Assembly result just 2 years later is a directly result of Ritchie having a large personal vote? In a unionist/nationalist contest I appreciate this would matter much less, but could it make a difference in a nationalist/nationalist fight like this one?

Compare that to the previous Assembly Elections....I hope you are right, but doubt it.

[curiousliberal]

Jun 8, 2017 0:05:43 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jun 7, 2017 23:55:44 GMT curiousliberal said:

Surely the massive discrepancy between the GE result in 2015 and the Assembly result just 2 years later is a directly result of Ritchie having a large personal vote? In a unionist/nationalist contest I appreciate this would matter much less, but could it make a difference in a nationalist/nationalist fight like this one?

Compare that to the previous Assembly Elections....I hope you are right, but doubt it.

The swing to SF in recent Assembly Elections seems a bit puzzling to me, but I'll have to agree with you there - it does look worrying. 

It could be that there were also personal votes involved in the swing to SF at the assembly level. I might be clutching at straws here, but perhaps Hazzard and Ennis seemed to be a more effective team than the local SDLP duo at the Assembly level - in that case, we've already seen that Ritchie is 'ranked' above them as she's decisively beaten Hazzard before.

[jamie]

LucidTalk September Poll for Assembly (changes with result in March 2017):

DUP - 35.5% (+7.4)
SF - 31.2% (+3.3)
UUP - 9.6% (-3.3)
SDLP - 9.4% (-2.5)
Alliance - 8.6% (-0.5)
Greens - 1.7% (-0.6)
PBP - 1.5% (-0.3)
TUV - 1.3% (-1.2)
PUP - 0.4% (-0.3)


On those numbers, the following could happen:
Belfast East - DUP gain from UUP - Possible
Belfast North - DUP gain from SDLP - Possible with better balancing
Belfast South - DUP gain from Green - Very likely
Belfast West - DUP gain from SF - Possible depending on turnout
East Antrim - DUP gain from UUP - Very likely
Fermanagh and South Tyrone - DUP gain from UUP - Very likely
Lagan Valley - DUP gain from SDLP - Almost certain
Mid Ulster - UUP gain from SDLP - Possible if DUP don't run 2nd candidate and transfer well
Newry and Armagh - UUP gain from SF - Possible on DUP transfers
West Tyrone - UUP gain from SDLP - Reasonably possibly assuming no 2nd DUP

DUP could gain from everybody, UUP may minimise losses thanks to DUP transfers, while SF are pretty much maxed out.



So, with caveats, the assembly would look something like this:
DUP - 32 (+4)
SF - 27 (nc)
UUP - 8 (-2)
SDLP - 11 (-1)
Alliance - 8 (nc)
Greens - 1 (-1)
TUV - 1 (nc)
PBP - 1 (nc)
Ind Unionist - 1 (nc)


Can they hurry up with direct rule 😁

[jamie]

Oct 24, 2017 1:16:29 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

LucidTalk poll due tomorrow.

I shall not get my hopes up...

[mondialito]

[The Bishop]

How does that compare with previous surveys?