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Post by Devonian on Oct 2, 2014 16:49:33 GMT
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Post by fulgentius1 on Oct 5, 2014 20:21:02 GMT
These polls are totally useless in Northern Ireland, as the reporter clearly shows. In many ways, Northern Ireland will be the most interesting of elections to watch next May.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 5, 2014 21:00:05 GMT
These polls are totally useless in Northern Ireland, as the reporter clearly shows. In many ways, Northern Ireland will be the most interesting of elections to watch next May. Any thoughts on any possible change of seats? |
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 6, 2014 16:41:23 GMT
Probably very few changes, there's only a couple of marginal seats at the moment.
Belfast East and Belfast North will probably be the ones to watch. Belfast South used to be but I can't see it going anything other than SDLP at the moment, particularly if Sinn Fein stand aside again.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 22, 2014 23:01:14 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2017 22:31:39 GMT
Tories at least 28% behind in latest opinion poll:
twitter.com/UlsterElects/status/859526839022354432
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2017 22:36:09 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2017 23:50:49 GMT
That was my attempt at a joke. As usual it fell flat.   |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065 
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Post by jamie on May 22, 2017 12:55:44 GMT
Not a new poll, but i've just noticed how few 'other' Unionists are standing. The Conservatives are down from 16 to 7, TUV are down from 10 to 1, and UKIP are down from 10 to 0. Collectively, these parties got 6.2% between them. I imagine their absence will help the DUP and to a lesser extent the UUP outperform their polls. However, their previous votes are largely concentrated in safe Unionist seats so their absences' impact on actual seats will be marginal at best.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 28, 2017 10:48:17 GMT
Changes from 2015:
DUP +3.1%
SF +3.4%
UUP -0.2%
SDLP -0.2%
APNI +1.2%
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 28, 2017 13:31:26 GMT
The maximum the DUP will win is 10. Of these possibles, probably 5 are safe.
Defence:
Upper Bann
Belfast East
Belfast North
Targets:
Belfast South
South Antrim
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 28, 2017 13:35:58 GMT
Changes from 2015: DUP +3.1% SF +3.4% UUP -0.2% SDLP -0.2% APNI +1.2% Freely admit my knowledge of Northern Ireland politics is next to non existent. Whats the chances the DUP end up as the 4th biggest parliamentary party ? The best case scenario for the DUP is that they win 10 seats. That involves gaining South Antrim from the UUP and Belfast South from the SDLP, both of which I consider unlikely, as well as holding all 8 of their existing seats which I think they will but is far from certain. So if you think that the Lib Dems are going to stay at 8 MPs, or even suffer a net loss, it is a possibility. Personally I expect the Lib Dems to make modest net gains. |
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 13:46:22 GMT
LucidTalk poll due tomorrow apparently.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 14:17:30 GMT
LucidTalk poll due tomorrow apparently. The big one. Will be interesting to see if the UUP and SDLP hold up or slip back. Really hoping UUP can hold the two they've got and sneak in Upper Bann while they're at it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2017 14:30:54 GMT
Completely agree, I am worried about F&T, hope the unionists can mobilise their vote like the Republicans did in the last elections.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 14:43:23 GMT
Really hoping UUP can hold the two they've got and sneak in Upper Bann while they're at it. The more the merrier, though I'll be happy if they can retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone and absolutely delighted if the DUP can sneak Belfast South. Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2017 14:46:27 GMT
The more the merrier, though I'll be happy if they can retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone and absolutely delighted if the DUP can sneak Belfast South. Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster. Ulster Unionists used to take the Conservative whip, but differences over the governance of Northern Ireland in the 1970s put an end to the institutional relationship between the two parties. |
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 14:49:33 GMT
Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster. I believe that the UUP joined up with the Conservatives on a joint ticket in 2010 when the party lost its only MP in North Down who is now an Independent. That ended any formal arrangements between the two parties with regards to standing candidates in Northern Ireland. Just seems a bit silly to stand seperate candidates when the two parties seem so similar. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2017 14:58:40 GMT
Just seems a bit silly to stand seperate candidates when the two parties seem so similar. It seems a bit silly to me to have two unionist parties in Northern Ireland and not one, but Northern Irish politics in general are very silly. The UUP and DUP have rather different approaches to "unionism" as well as different voter bases. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jun 4, 2017 15:01:31 GMT
The UUP are definitely to the left (insofar as they have a non-constitutional philosophy) of the Conservatives and many of their politicians would be at home in the Lib Dems or even non-Corbynite's Labour. Why would they merge with the Conservatives when they have a significantly better brand and it clearly didn't work last time?
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