Changes from 2015: DUP +3.1% SF +3.4% UUP -0.2% SDLP -0.2% APNI +1.2%
Freely admit my knowledge of Northern Ireland politics is next to non existent. Whats the chances the DUP end up as the 4th biggest parliamentary party ?
The best case scenario for the DUP is that they win 10 seats. That involves gaining South Antrim from the UUP and Belfast South from the SDLP, both of which I consider unlikely, as well as holding all 8 of their existing seats which I think they will but is far from certain. So if you think that the Lib Dems are going to stay at 8 MPs, or even suffer a net loss, it is a possibility. Personally I expect the Lib Dems to make modest net gains.
I would remind you that extremism in the defence of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!
Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster.
I believe that the UUP joined up with the Conservatives on a joint ticket in 2010 when the party lost its only MP in North Down who is now an Independent. That ended any formal arrangements between the two parties with regards to standing candidates in Northern Ireland.
Just seems a bit silly to stand seperate candidates when the two parties seem so similar.
The UUP are definitely to the left (insofar as they have a non-constitutional philosophy) of the Conservatives and many of their politicians would be at home in the Lib Dems or even non-Corbynite's Labour. Why would they merge with the Conservatives when they have a significantly better brand and it clearly didn't work last time?
@ntyuk1707, this shows a real ignorance of the UUP's history, which had a strong labour base at one time. Several senior UUP politicians were Labour men at heart, not least the late and lamented Harold McCusker, Michael McGimpsey (former MLA and Minister), Chris McGimpsey, Sylvia Hermon (who left the UUP over the UCUNF farrago), Fred Cobain (former MLA and in the DUP since 2013). To swallow the Tory shilling who!e would be the final nail in the coffin for the UUP, which has lost most of its working class support to the DUP already.
There is only one way this is heading and it aint good for Unionists.
Sir Nicholas Soames on Leader of the House Jacob Rees Mogg : ‘an absolute fraud, a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse.’
Lucidtalk have issued seat projections - they are basically predicting only one seat will change: SF gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from UU.
IIRC, that's what they predicted in their last projection - so, assuming this projections are correct, we're heading for quite a dull election in Northern Ireland in terms of seat changes. It looks like the magic number will be 321 seats once Sinn Fein, the Speaker and Deputy Speakers are taken into account.
LucidTalk Forecast: North Antrim - DUP 100% East Antrim - DUP 100% Belfast West - SF 100% North Down - Ind 100% Mid-Ulster - SF 100% West Tyrone - SF 100% East Londonderry - DUP 100% Lagan Valley - DUP 100% Strangford - DUP 100% Newry & Armagh - SF 100% (otherwise UUP or SDLP) Belfast North - DUP 80% (otherwise SF) Upper Bann - DUP 80% (otherwise UUP or SF) Foyle - SDLP 75% (otherwise SF) Belfast South - SDLP 60% (otherwise DUP) South Antirm - UUP 55% (otherwise DUP) Belfast East - DUP 55% (otherwise Alliance) Fermanagh & South Tyrone - SF 55% (otherwise UUP) South Down - SDLP 55% (otherwise SF)
Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life.
CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around.