iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 22, 2021 9:44:54 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 22, 2021 10:10:33 GMT
Poots surge! Or not, as the case may be.
(some other polling, which showed most DUP *voters* easily preferred Donaldson over him as Foster's successor, may not be irrelevant here)
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Post by bluelabour on May 22, 2021 10:34:39 GMT
Poots surge! Or not, as the case may be. (some other polling, which showed most DUP *voters* easily preferred Donaldson over him as Foster's successor, may not be irrelevant here) You would think he'd hoover up some of those TUV votes though
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Post by stb12 on May 23, 2021 16:49:06 GMT
If Alliance finish second am I right in thinking they couldn’t take up one of the first minister positions because they don’t align as unionist or nationalist?
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Post by relique on May 23, 2021 19:51:07 GMT
If Alliance finish second am I right in thinking they couldn’t take up one of the first minister positions because they don’t align as unionist or nationalist? If I record correctly, it wouldn't matter as there wouldn't be a "non-aligned" side that would have more MLAs than both unionists or nationalists. With this kind of results, there would still be more unionists than unaligned and more nationalists than unaligned. There might be more nationalists than unionists but that's not even sure because DUP+UUP+TUV is still bigger than SF+SDLP (although of course it would all rest on transfers, the distribution of the vote, etc...)
Edit: I did a very quick calculus based on the poll: it could yield to 39 nationalists (27/12), 35 unionists (13/11/10/1) and 16 non-aligned (15/1/0)
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Aug 28, 2021 7:44:40 GMT
Apart from the comedy value in regards to the DUP, Alliance will be disappointed.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 28, 2021 8:52:11 GMT
DUP could even be 6th in the next poll - that would be a turnaround and then some.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2021 10:26:03 GMT
Apart from the comedy value in regards to the DUP, Alliance will be disappointed. Seems a bit too Unionist-slanted overall, but I suppose it's not the easiest place to poll in.
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jollyroger93
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Post by jollyroger93 on Aug 28, 2021 12:22:04 GMT
Diving into the data the figures are actually awesome for the UUP Beattie is by far the most popular leader in NI and Swann is by far the most popular Minister, still a long way to go till the election but if I was the UUP I’d be looking to becoming the first unionist party once again.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2021 12:47:41 GMT
Diving into the data the figures are actually awesome for the UUP Beattie is by far the most popular leader in NI and Swann is by far the most popular Minister, still a long way to go till the election but if I was the UUP I’d be looking to becoming the first unionist party once again. It would certainly be beneficial if that became the case.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 28, 2021 14:44:54 GMT
Apart from the comedy value in regards to the DUP, Alliance will be disappointed. I was astonished (at the low position of the DUP) when I saw that tweet this morning, but when I clicked on it I found that most of the replies were about the decline in support for the Alliance Party. Of course that decline is only recent and from a relatively high position.
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jollyroger93
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Post by jollyroger93 on Aug 28, 2021 15:03:21 GMT
Apart from the comedy value in regards to the DUP, Alliance will be disappointed. I was astonished (at the low position of the DUP) when I saw that tweet this morning, but when I clicked on it I found that most of the replies were about the decline in support for the Alliance Party. Of course that decline is only recent and from a relatively high position. I think people are also missing the rise of the TUV, even more right wing than the DUP looks like moderate DUP voters are going UUP and more right wing voters going TUV
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Post by MeirionGwril on Aug 29, 2021 11:21:48 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42%
One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 29, 2021 15:14:07 GMT
I was astonished (at the low position of the DUP) when I saw that tweet this morning, but when I clicked on it I found that most of the replies were about the decline in support for the Alliance Party. Of course that decline is only recent and from a relatively high position. I think people are also missing the rise of the TUV, even more right wing than the DUP looks like moderate DUP voters are going UUP and more right wing voters going TUV Arlene Foster's disastrous leadership has torn the party to pieces and in the aftermath they have managed to massively annoy their hard line base and their moderate support at the same time. Furthermore they have lost the argument for unionists to support them tactically to prevent SF/IRA being the largest party.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 29, 2021 15:18:28 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Alliance (and to a lesser extent the Greens) largely attract middle class people from a Protestant background. Their voter bases will have traditionally been modestly but overwhelmingly unionist, and despite recent slippage I suspect push comes to shove they would mostly vote to remain part of the UK.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 29, 2021 16:10:59 GMT
I think people are also missing the rise of the TUV, even more right wing than the DUP looks like moderate DUP voters are going UUP and more right wing voters going TUV Arlene Foster's disastrous leadership has torn the party to pieces and in the aftermath they have managed to massively annoy their hard line base and their moderate support at the same time. Furthermore they have lost the argument for unionists to support them tactically to prevent SF/IRA being the largest party. It's just like the Ulster Unionists all over again.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 29, 2021 17:56:02 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Possibly you will be able to see that rather small crossbreak when the tabs are published on Tuesday or Wednesday (according to twitter). As said below the Alliance vote is traditionally Protestant, but perhaps they are Protestants who would prefer a united Ireland along with EU membership?
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 29, 2021 18:07:20 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Possibly you will be able to see that rather small crossbreak when the tabs are published on Tuesday or Wednesday (according to twitter). As said below the Alliance vote is traditionally Protestant, but perhaps they are Protestants who would prefer a united Ireland along with EU membership? My friend who votes Alliance says that in his area they are a mixture of Catholics, because noone lies as low as a Larne Catholic, and Protestants who are pragmatic and certainly at the moment prepared to go with the flow on a United Ireland. He is Protestant and his sister is one of Arlene's best friends - they used to run the Unionist society at Queen's.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Aug 29, 2021 18:07:22 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Alliance (and to a lesser extent the Greens) largely attract middle class people from a Protestant background. Their voter bases will have traditionally been modestly but overwhelmingly unionist, and despite recent slippage I suspect push comes to shove they would mostly vote to remain part of the UK. At this point, I would suspect their support is drawn roughly 50:50 (slightly more "unionist" for Alliance, slightly more "nationalist" for the Greens) - a mixture of old-school liberal/ecumenical Protestants, middle-class cultural Catholics who are either very small "u" pro-union or live in areas where the SDLP is not competitive, and predominantly younger secular voters from both sides who consider themselves "progressive" and "post-tribal".
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 29, 2021 18:19:39 GMT
Diving into the data the figures are actually awesome for the UUP Beattie is by far the most popular leader in NI and Swann is by far the most popular Minister, still a long way to go till the election but if I was the UUP I’d be looking to becoming the first unionist party once again. Remember when a young (for the province) politician left the UUP almost immediately after it stopped being the largest Unionist party? Who would have though a UUP revival would be the thing that could stop him becoming the leader of the leading Unionist party at an election?
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