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Post by therealriga on Oct 12, 2020 16:55:10 GMT
I don't think that's what he was suggesting. The SDLP won a seat in 2016 and lost it, on the second count in 2017, when their candidate was only 62 votes behind the third SF candidate. Any dip in the SF vote and the nationalist balance goes SF 2-1 SDLP instead of 3-0. That also has implications for the unionist side, since the eliminated SDLP candidate's transfers pushed the UUP candidate ahead of the second DUP runner, so the UUP would also be the losers from an SDLP gain scenario. I agree it's a stretch. But with a weakened DUP, I think Foster would gain more votes and her running mate losing a lot of votes. (something like 9000-4500 instead of 8500-7100 last time; from 29,8% to 25,7% wouldn't be such a stretch with DUP going from 28 to 23% in NI)
UUP would also lose some votes. They were at 6000 last time and could go as low as 5000. TUV was at 800 last time, according to the poll, they would do better, so maybe 2000 ?
SDLP would do better than last time, so from 5100, they would go to 6000 probably.
Now, the 3 SF should all be around 7000. They were at 8000, 7800 and 6300 last time. They are quite good at vote management so they might succeed in having three candidates between 6800 and 7500.
The Greens would do better, maybe 1500 instead of 550; Alliance also at 3000 instead of 1400.
And now, there's a really tough call between a lagging DUP at 4500 (but that could gain more TUV votes and 200 or so Foster's votes in the end), a UUP at 5000 which would get few TUV votes and maybe some Alliance votes as well. The Greens votes would go Alliance and SDLP mainly but also a little to every one. After TUV and Greens are eliminated, it would be Alliance, and now there's the political climate. I don't think DUP or SF will get a lot of Alliance votes. But I think also that UUP are really not a good prospect for those voters. So SDLP would be a bit more favoured than UUP. This could well put the SDLP candidate over the line before any of the 3 SF candidates.
And now the question is who would qualify between UUP and DUP against the 3 SF to keep a conservative seat, and would the transfers be good ? At this stage, I think they would both be around 5300-5600. Maybe Foster's surplus would keep a running mate in the game, and SDLP's smaller surplus would help UUP more (though it would also help SF candidates). I don't know how well the transfers will be, so I'd say it's difficult to call.
I think we're sure of 2 SF and 1 DUP. 1 SDLP seems likely to me. Then it's a real fight between DUP, UUP and SF for the final seat. But SF did keep the constituency. That was my idea when I gave them the last one. They might do better there than what the poll suggests (compared to Foyle for instance)
I just don't see it. The combined unionist vote in 2017 was over 43%. A share of 33% guarantees two seats, so it would take a collapse and in Fermanagh the pace of change has been very slow. The DUP have got a lot better at balancing as well. Ultimately, it would take a perfect storm of factors for the second unionist seat to go green.
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Post by seanryanj on Oct 12, 2020 17:33:16 GMT
Assembly voting intention (changes from last election): SF - 24% (-4%) DUP - 23% (-5%) Alliance - 16% (+7%) SDLP - 13% (+1%) UUP - 12% (-1%) TUV - 6% (+3%) Green - 3% (+1%) PBP - 2% (-) Could lead to
SF: 27 seats (=)
DUP: 26 (-2: -1 in Foyle and Belfast North) Alliance: 16 (+8: +1 in North and East Antrim, Belfast North and East, North Down, Strangford, Lagan Valley and Upper Bann) SDLP: 12 (=: -1 in Lagan Valley and Upper Bann and +1 in Foyle and Fermanagh and South Tyrone) UUP: 5 (-5: -1 in North and East Antrim, Belfast East, Strangford and Fermanagh and South Tyrone) TUV: 1 (=) Green: 1 (-1 in North Down) PBP: 1 (=) Independent Unionist: 1 (=, East Londonderry)
So Unionists: 33 Nationalists: 39 Others: 18
Edit: to explain a bit:
unionists seats are more vulnerable to an Alliance surge. In nationalists constituencies like Belfast West (1,9%), Newry and Armagh (2,6%), Fermanagh and South Tyrone (2,8%), West Tyrone (2,8%), Mid Ulster (2%), Foyle (2,5%) Alliance was very very far in 2017 and I don't see how they could get a seat, even with this kind of surge.
Alliance was closer in North Antrim (5,4% in 2017, 14,1% in the 2019 GE), East Antrim (1 seat with 16,1%, 27,3% in 2019 GE), North Down (1 seat with 18,6%, 45,2% in the GE and 26% in the local elections), Strangford (1 seat with 15% in 2017, 28,4% in 2019 GE), Lagan Valley (1 seat with 13,5%, 28,4% in 2019 GE), Upper Bann (5,3% in 2017, 12,9% in 2019 GE).
Without independents (except Claire Sudgen), my constituency-by-constituency projections (from the poll) would give:
SF: 25,27% DUP: 24,07% AP: 14,68% SDLP: 14,62% UUP: 11,35% TUV: 4,28%
Greens: 3,12% PBPA: 1,98% Ind U: 0,63%
I still have DUP, SF and SDLP a bit higher than the poll, AP TUV and UUP a bit lower so I'd need to correct a bit. Fermanagh and South Tyrone might not go to SDLP and rather stay in unionists hands. Some SF seats are vulnerable (Foyle mainly, although I think the DUP seat is more vulnerable, and it would still be a nationalist seat; elsewhere, I think in Fermanagh South Tyrone, Belfast North and South Down, keeping or gaining the constituencies would help them keep their seats which might be the three most vulnerable after Foyle)
Would have thought that Alliance would be in with a good shout in South Down probably at SDLP expense.
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Post by mrsir on Feb 1, 2021 9:57:29 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 1, 2021 10:04:54 GMT
Looks very like TUV is a receptacle for disillusioned DUP voters who want to show the DUP they've lost touch with their base, very like Farage's parties have soaked up ex-Conservative voters in England. But I bet these changes are not uniform across the province.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Feb 1, 2021 10:13:13 GMT
Looks very like TUV is a receptacle for disillusioned DUP voters who want to show the DUP they've lost touch with their base, very like Farage's parties have soaked up ex-Conservative voters in England. But I bet these changes are not uniform across the province. But why the TUV and not the UUP?
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Post by therealriga on Feb 1, 2021 10:18:46 GMT
Looks very like TUV is a receptacle for disillusioned DUP voters who want to show the DUP they've lost touch with their base, very like Farage's parties have soaked up ex-Conservative voters in England. But I bet these changes are not uniform across the province. But why the TUV and not the UUP? The UUP lack a distinctive brand, in the last decade and a half they've flirted between trying to be DUP-lite and Alliance-lite and have succeeded at neither whereas TUV's Jim Allister is never off the local news ranting about the inequities of his former party and has a fairly high profile.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 1, 2021 10:22:41 GMT
Looks very like TUV is a receptacle for disillusioned DUP voters who want to show the DUP they've lost touch with their base, very like Farage's parties have soaked up ex-Conservative voters in England. But I bet these changes are not uniform across the province. Indeed so David. The TUV have had more than a few poll surges over the years, but nothing seems to have ever come of it, not least because they seemed to opt out of potentially competitive contests. The question, I guess, is whether it is different this time (for them as much as for the voters polled).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 1, 2021 11:16:31 GMT
The UUP - for decades NI's hegemonic political party - could actually be polling in sixth place soon.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Feb 1, 2021 11:26:42 GMT
One of my pet peeves is when pollsters publish poll percentages in decimals. Another is when people take a poll and compare the changes on the previous election in decimals, even though the pollster in question hasn't headlined the percentages in decimals.
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Post by relique on Feb 1, 2021 13:27:36 GMT
This could yield to:
SF: 26 seats (-1) DUP: 20 seats (-8) AP: 17 seats (+9) SDLP: 13 seats (+1) UUP: 7 seats (-3) TUV: 5 seats (+4) Independent unionist: 1 seat (=) PBPA: 1 seat (=)
So 33 unionists, 39 nationalists and 18 non aligned.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 1, 2021 17:29:04 GMT
What happens if Sinn Féin finish first and Alliance second? SF first minister with APNI deputy? Because if so that could be interesting
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Post by relique on Feb 1, 2021 18:12:35 GMT
What happens if Sinn Féin finish first and Alliance second? SF first minister with APNI deputy? Because if so that could be interesting I don't think so. Unionists would still have more seats and the deputy is from the main party in the second more numerous side.
But could a (second in seats) side be something else than nationalists or unionists ?
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Feb 1, 2021 20:12:11 GMT
What happens if Sinn Féin finish first and Alliance second? SF first minister with APNI deputy? Because if so that could be interesting I don't think so. Unionists would still have more seats and the deputy is from the main party in the second more numerous side.
But could a (second in seats) side be something else than nationalists or unionists ?
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Post by therealriga on Feb 1, 2021 21:06:19 GMT
Looks very like TUV is a receptacle for disillusioned DUP voters who want to show the DUP they've lost touch with their base, very like Farage's parties have soaked up ex-Conservative voters in England. But I bet these changes are not uniform across the province. Indeed so David. The TUV have had more than a few poll surges over the years, but nothing seems to have ever come of it, not least because they seemed to opt out of potentially competitive contests. The question, I guess, is whether it is different this time (for them as much as for the voters polled). The further problem for the TUV is that they have been very poor at selecting and vetting candidates. On top of that, elected TUV candidates often seem to be left to their own devices after they have won, receiving no media training or guidance. Consequently, many of them blurt out the first things that come into their head or post offensive stuff on social media which brings them and their party into disrepute. The views of some of them probably aren't that different from some DUP councillors or are the flip side of what some Sinn Féin councillors say in private about the "other lot." The difference is that the DUP and Sinn Féin ensure that these figures never get near a microphone and are restricted to dealing with the nitty gritty of bins, bogs and burials.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Feb 2, 2021 13:37:34 GMT
Indeed so David. The TUV have had more than a few poll surges over the years, but nothing seems to have ever come of it, not least because they seemed to opt out of potentially competitive contests. The question, I guess, is whether it is different this time (for them as much as for the voters polled). The further problem for the TUV is that they have been very poor at selecting and vetting candidates. On top of that, elected TUV candidates often seem to be left to their own devices after they have won, receiving no media training or guidance. Consequently, many of them blurt out the first things that come into their head or post offensive stuff on social media which brings them and their party into disrepute. The views of some of them probably aren't that different from some DUP councillors or are the flip side of what some Sinn Féin councillors say in private about the "other lot." The difference is that the DUP and Sinn Féin ensure that these figures never get near a microphone and are restricted to dealing with the nitty gritty of bins, bogs and burials. *camera pans to Jolene Bunting*
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 2, 2021 15:02:44 GMT
I don't think so. Unionists would still have more seats and the deputy is from the main party in the second more numerous side.
But could a (second in seats) side be something else than nationalists or unionists ?
If the Alliance declare themselves to be a Unionist party.................. Seeing as the lengths they went to,including getting the law changed, so that they never had to... It would however put a strain on the baked in sectarianism of the current set-up, that is, of course, no longer fit for purpose.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Feb 2, 2021 16:53:28 GMT
This could yield to:
SF: 26 seats (-1) DUP: 20 seats (-8) AP: 17 seats (+9) SDLP: 13 seats (+1) UUP: 7 seats (-3) TUV: 5 seats (+4) Independent unionist: 1 seat (=) PBPA: 1 seat (=)
So 33 unionists, 39 nationalists and 18 non aligned.
With STV a lot depends on the number of candidates parties as I expect the DUP to put up less candidates in places like Belfast east which will change vote flows and likely change how close they are to quota.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 2, 2021 22:43:57 GMT
Do they also poll for Westminster VI or just Stormont?
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 2, 2021 23:04:52 GMT
Very bad poll for those wishing to see changes to the North's Constitutional Status or the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 4, 2021 13:49:07 GMT
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