swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 19, 2024 16:26:38 GMT
Nothing more than a bit of fun at this stage of course The two main candidates will definitely not be Vance or Harris I wouldn’t rule out Vance, particularly if something happens to Trump before January 2029. |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 19, 2024 20:00:15 GMT
Yes I think that's true. If something happens to Trump (given his age & lifestyle it must be about 50/50 whether he sees out a full term) then as incumbent it would be very hard to take the shot away from Vance (rather like it took the Dems until way too late to realise that Biden had to be hooked, because "he was the incumbent & that's just the way things are done").
However, if Trump serves a full term (and assuming he hasnt manipulated a way to get himself a 3rd) then I highly suspect Vance wont be the candidate, unless Trump specifically and unequivocally anoints him!
A long long way from 2028 of course but, if the GOP gets its collective head together and waves bye-bye to Trumpism, then Haley had put herself as the clear choice of "trad GOP" option. Whilst she isnt favourite by any means she would be "good value" in betting terminology.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 19, 2024 20:17:54 GMT
Yes I think that's true. If something happens to Trump (given his age & lifestyle it must be about 50/50 whether he sees out a full term) then as incumbent it would be very hard to take the shot away from Vance (rather like it took the Dems until way too late to realise that Biden had to be hooked, because "he was the incumbent & that's just the way things are done"). However, if Trump serves a full term (and assuming he hasnt manipulated a way to get himself a 3rd) then I highly suspect Vance wont be the candidate, unless Trump specifically and unequivocally anoints him! A long long way from 2028 of course but, if the GOP gets its collective head together and waves bye-bye to Trumpism, then Haley had put herself as the clear choice of "trad GOP" option. Whilst she isnt favourite by any means she would be "good value" in betting terminology. You are missing a very important point about Vance. Trump will likely need the next President to pardon him. If the GOP lose the 2028 Presidential election Trump can resign early allowing Vance to take office and pardon him. However this needs Trump and Vance to remain on good terms. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Nov 20, 2024 8:56:31 GMT
Article concerning the potential electoral college changes that we’ve touched on on here already, albeit with something of a partisan slant
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Post by stodge on Nov 20, 2024 9:05:15 GMT
Well, yes but we've heard this before.
In my lifetime, I've been told neither Labour nor Conservative could ever win a majority again because of demographics, boundary changes, societal changes yet both have.
There's no reason a Democrat Presidential candidate couldn't win in a number of the states which the Republicans won this time but they have to find the candidate and the message which resonates in those areas. In 2028, they will likely a) not be facing Trump and b) they will have had four years of DOGE and all the rest of the policies of the second Trump administration.
To be fair, IF the American people perceive (as distinct from the truth which is irrelevant) they are better off in 2028 than 2024, Vance (presumably) will win easily but if it all turns out to be a disastrous inane experiment which leaves most Americans worse off, the Democrats will come roaring back.
That's politics - nothing is forever (except perhaps politics but that's a discussion for another thread).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2024 11:36:01 GMT
Even after said changes, if the Democrats take all seven swing states that they lost this time round in 2028 (as they did in 2020) then they would still win the EC comfortably. So portraying this as some sort of insuperable obstacle for them going forward is simply daft.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Nov 20, 2024 11:42:09 GMT
Even after said changes, if the Democrats take all seven swing states that they lost this time round in 2028 (as they did in 2020) then they would still win the EC comfortably. So portraying this as some sort of insuperable obstacle for them going forward is simply daft. The damage would be more likely when it comes to control of the House if the recent trends of the majority only coming down to a handful of seats continues |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Nov 20, 2024 15:50:27 GMT
Well, yes but we've heard this before. In my lifetime, I've been told neither Labour nor Conservative could ever win a majority again because of demographics, boundary changes, societal changes yet both have. There's no reason a Democrat Presidential candidate couldn't win in a number of the states which the Republicans won this time but they have to find the candidate and the message which resonates in those areas. In 2028, they will likely a) not be facing Trump and b) they will have had four years of DOGE and all the rest of the policies of the second Trump administration. To be fair, IF the American people perceive (as distinct from the truth which is irrelevant) they are better off in 2028 than 2024, Vance (presumably) will win easily but if it all turns out to be a disastrous inane experiment which leaves most Americans worse off, the Democrats will come roaring back. That's politics - nothing is forever (except perhaps politics but that's a discussion for another thread). Kansas... |
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