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Post by aargauer on Nov 11, 2024 15:26:10 GMT
For president? No. Way too many questions about his health. Post Biden that's not territory to get into. Um? John Fetterman is 55. He's had very serious health issues needs a lot of assistance - and unfortunately there will be questions about what happens if anything gets worse. |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 11, 2024 17:32:10 GMT
The democrats could definitely run with left wing economic ideas with a union type - but not excessively "progressive" social views. That is just toxic. Support for palestine: toxic Support for mermaids / transgender people in female sport: toxic Etc. Won't work. Progressive liberals won't bother. I won't vote for that. What you will or won't vote for is irrelevant to the question of whether Americans will or won't vote for it. Harris only lost a very small proportion of the progressive liberal vote (the portion that refuses to vote for anyone who isn't completely opposed to Israel). But even if those voters had stayed with her, she would still have lost. The next Democrat needs to win over voters outside their base. aargauer may be wrong about these particular issues being toxic, but he's not wrong to say that they would benefit from their candidate not being strongly associated with the parts of the Democrat base which are seen as more extreme by the average American. You can't be a far-right government if you win the popular vote. That is just not how arithmetic works. If you win more than 50% of the vote, then by definition a measurable % of your voters are left of centre. The bulk are mainstream right, a big chunk are hard right and you probably have the majority but not all of the far right. If you think that a majority of people are far right, then it's you that's the problem The people who vote for a party are not necessarily reflective of the ideology of that party's leadership. Especially in a strict two-party system where a massive proportion of the electorate are voting for the party they view as the lesser evil, rather than for a party who they actually agree with on all the major issues of the day. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 11, 2024 17:45:22 GMT
Run John Fetterman for fuck's sake. He won Pennsylvania by 5 points. I'm totally not drunk right now. But there's power in a union. Fetterman crushed it in 2022. For president? No. Way too many questions about his health. Post Biden that's not territory to get into. Although those were issues before with him |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 11, 2024 18:29:44 GMT
For president? No. Way too many questions about his health. Post Biden that's not territory to get into. Although those were issues before with him And Chuck Grassley won re-election to the senate with a majority typical for that state at 89. Without wanting to morbid the chances of him not making it through the 6 years are significant. But there are 100 senators and the world would carry on if he (or Fetterman) died or was incapacitated. President is a different level both in terms of the responsibility load and the implications if the presidents health is failing. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 11, 2024 18:58:09 GMT
Although those were issues before with him And Chuck Grassley won re-election to the senate with a majority typical for that state at 89. Without wanting to morbid the chances of him not making it through the 6 years are significant. But there are 100 senators and the world would carry on if he (or Fetterman) died or was incapacitated. President is a different level both in terms of the responsibility load and the implications if the presidents health is failing. I know, but if it's a good enough year for the Democrats... But I suspect he'll be carried by his party more than Biden in 2020 |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 11, 2024 20:43:33 GMT
In two years time Josh Shapiro is very likely to be re-elected as Governor of Pennsylvania in a landslide. A popular sitting governor of the biggest swing state is going to look like a very attractive candidate. He would certain lock up Pennsylvania and that plus the Harris states means only needing to flip Michigan and Wisconsin.
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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 11, 2024 21:16:29 GMT
He is a Jew. Now that either disqualifies him or makes him the obvious choice.
Now head to head with Jared Kushner would be hilarious.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 11, 2024 21:30:08 GMT
He is a Jew. Now that either disqualifies him or makes him the obvious choice. Now head to head with Jared Kushner would be hilarious. It neither disqualifies him nor makes him the obvious choice. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 11, 2024 21:36:09 GMT
Dat True. But you know who I was talking to
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wysall
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Post by wysall on Nov 13, 2024 12:22:56 GMT
Indeed. I think Hillary Clinton would have outperformed Barack Obama in 2008 and probably won Missouri and Montana, and possibly Georgia or some other McCain states. HRC wasn't much more popular in 2008 than 2016, why else do you think she lost her "unloseable" nomination in the first place! It's not about her being popular: it's about her being white. It is an objective assessment (in the tradition of Kevin Phillips) that Obama's race was, in the South and among 'ancestrally Democratic' voters elsewhere, a death blow to the party. Clinton wouldn't have had the same issue with those voters. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 14, 2024 12:32:28 GMT
Poll added
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Nov 18, 2024 6:54:12 GMT
If Harris had held on to Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she'd have won 270 EVs. 2028 will be the last time this coalition of states works, with the sun belt becoming mission critical from 2032. Democrats would have to win Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina to win a majority in the Electoral College.
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 18, 2024 8:01:47 GMT
If Harris had held on to Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she'd have won 270 EVs. 2028 will be the last time this coalition of states works, with the sun belt becoming mission critical from 2032. Democrats would have to win Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina to win a majority in the Electoral College. That would have been 276. 270 would be without Nevada. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Nov 18, 2024 8:36:09 GMT
If Harris had held on to Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she'd have won 270 EVs. 2028 will be the last time this coalition of states works, with the sun belt becoming mission critical from 2032. Democrats would have to win Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina to win a majority in the Electoral College. That would have been 276. 270 would be without Nevada. It won’t be enough in 2032. They’d need to win another state. Probably Arizona. The CA changes look brutal. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 18, 2024 11:10:57 GMT
Interesting that Delware is projected to get a 2nd congressional district - it's always been an at large district previously. The GOP would have a decent shot at the southern district (unless it is gerrymandered)
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 18, 2024 17:08:29 GMT
That would have been 276. 270 would be without Nevada. It won’t be enough in 2032. They’d need to win another state. Probably Arizona. The CA changes look brutal. These projections should be taken with a grain of salt. I recall similar projections about 10 years ago but when the 2020 census came around the changes were less extreme. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 18, 2024 19:15:30 GMT
Interesting that Delware is projected to get a 2nd congressional district - it's always been an at large district previously. The GOP would have a decent shot at the southern district (unless it is gerrymandered) Any seat that contained all of Kent and Sussex counties, as would be the case with any rational map, would have been carried by Trump and all other state wide Republican candidates in this election. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 19, 2024 14:20:37 GMT
Nothing more than a bit of fun at this stage of course
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Post by johnloony on Nov 19, 2024 14:42:41 GMT
Nothing more than a bit of fun at this stage of course The two main candidates will definitely not be Vance or Harris |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 19, 2024 14:54:27 GMT
Interesting that Delware is projected to get a 2nd congressional district - it's always been an at large district previously. The GOP would have a decent shot at the southern district (unless it is gerrymandered) Any seat that contained all of Kent and Sussex counties, as would be the case with any rational map, would have been carried by Trump and all other state wide Republican candidates in this election. How close it would be depends on which bits of New Castle county would be included alongside the whole of Kent and Sussex. Kent and Sussex combined have around 43% of Delaware's population so they will need a small amount of New Castle County. Probably the southern bit of New Castle county, possibly some of the west/north west part (which whilst leaning democrat now has strong republican results than the main part of Wilmington). |
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