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Post by yellowperil on Nov 10, 2024 8:39:41 GMT
Without disputing this, I think there does need to be an air of caution as 4 of the 5 contests previously had a significant independent vote which would muddy the waters as far as vote share changes go. The exception is Elgin which was perhaps objectively the best Tory performance vs expectations. Also, as far as I can tell brutal fratricidal disputes seems to be pretty much the norm in Aberdeenshire politics, so might already be baked into the results  The Elgin result may have been as much down to a good doorstep campaign and handwritten letters as anything to do with the party : www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/the-last-half-hour-it-just-went-quiet-new-councillor-on-365837/sanders take note. Hmm, yes, but note: 1) the handwritten letters were replies to points raised, not the first contact 2) she had to give up handwriting because there were too many but good on her,,, what I would regard as a good LibDem campaign, and I am pleased when any candidate of any party uses it because they mean it rather than just thinking of it as an election tool. |
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tomc
Conservative
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Post by tomc on Nov 10, 2024 18:02:56 GMT
In Burnley there must be an agreement between Tories and Reform not to stand against each other in May The Burnley Conservatives were the subject of a reverse takeover by UKIP a few years ago. I doubt they would be well-disposed to that idea. No they weren't,three people joined and massively improved their campaigning ability. |
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,092
Member is Online
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Post by cathyc on Nov 10, 2024 18:35:30 GMT
The Burnley Conservatives were the subject of a reverse takeover by UKIP a few years ago. I doubt they would be well-disposed to that idea. No they weren't,three people joined and massively improved their campaigning ability. No, three 'councillors' joined. Actually from the Brexit Party but I think they'd previously been UKIP. Within a few months one of them was Group Leader. It sure looked like a reverse takeover. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 10, 2024 21:20:39 GMT
They are transfer-friendly only only from Conservatives so I agree with nyxEven if Conservatives were 20-30 votes behind Reform, Conservatives would overtake them on Lib Dem/Labour etc transfers. Reform need to win on quota or get Conservative transfers. SNP are equally transfer unfriendly. If they dont win on first count, they are unlikely to progress |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 13, 2024 11:06:00 GMT
Got around to looking at the preference profiles from 7th November. In an ordinary election: (1) Fraserburgh and District comes out as 2C/SNP/RUK. This ward was C/Ind/SNP/LD in 2022 but would have been 2C/Ind/SNP if the Conservatives had run two candidates.  (2) Central Buchan comes out as 2C/SNP/LD. This ward was 2SNP/C/LD in 2022, with the final seat being very close between SNP and C - the SNP were lucky to win two seats here.  (3) Mearns ward is also 2C/SNP/LD. This ward was 2C/SNP/Ind in 2022, although the SNP would have been competitive for two seats at the expense of the Conservatives if they had run two candidates.  (4) Elgin City South was a manual count, the Conservatives and the SNP have one seat each and their surpluses would decide the final seat between Lab and LD. This ward was SNP/Lab/C in 2022. (5) Inverclyde West most likely comes out as Lab/SNP/C, but there is a very narrow path to 2Lab/1SNP which involves (a) perfect candidate balancing from Lab and (b) Alba staying ahead of the second SNP candidate, who is eliminated four votes behind Alba in this simulation. If Alba are eliminated at this point instead, then the second SNP candidate goes through to the end of the count on Alba transfers but doesn't get enough out of the Labour surplus to win. This ward was Ind/SNP/Lab in 2022.  |
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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 13, 2024 13:18:43 GMT
Superb Andrew. I do wonder if all of the parties has anyone crunching the numbers like that for them. It might inform or fail to inform decisions.
Fraserburgh, for example.
Obviously, Reform will not run two; you had that in for demo purposes.
The Conservatives now have two sitting councillors. Your numbers suggest that they should run two, and they may, but if one or both choose not to stand again, I suspect they would run only one.
There is a sitting Indepedent, Doreen Mair, if she shooses to stand again, it might persuade other partries to undernominate.
If the Conservatives undernominate, that seems to make Reform a dead cert, although perhaps only if Conrad Richie stands again, which is by no means certain.
The Conservatives may also swap candidates to other wards due to retirements and defections elsewhere.
It makes bad reading for the SNP however, that even with the likely demise of the SNP, they stay down at one unless they benefit from someone else's denomination and they are the least likely to benefit. They now have no councillors in Fraserburgh from a one time high of three out of four. The one advantage this gives them is that they have no sitting councillor urging undernomination
The Lib Dems are not competitive, they simply need to get lucky on undernomination and transfers
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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 13, 2024 13:37:27 GMT
With regard to Central Buchan, the Conservatives now have two sitting councillors to defend two seats, if Peter Chapman continues his Sinatra tour.
The SNP might well under-nominate here unless they see evidence of a recovery
With Indies finally seen off, hopefully forever, this could be a dull ward. 2xC SNP, LD.
Mearns, Reform will lose their defectee Cllr even if she stands again, Evison (Independent) is competitive only at the final stage if the votes break for her, Lib Dems are rebuilding from zero from the time when they had 2 from 4 and will surely take 1 from 4. The two sitting Conservatives Councillors, it will be George Carr who tops the poll and his running mate who follows him home
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