The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 8, 2024 13:37:33 GMT
GWBWI Lab +78 Grn +25 LDm +25 SNP -39 Con -51 Good results from Scotland for the Cons, but outweighed by horrendous figures in Blackpool and Wyre. Nothing outstanding in either direction for the LibDems or Greens, who basically managed not to lose points anywhere. Decent but not superb numbers for Labour We note that Reform UK is an 'Un-Party' to you but your Green friends are accepted. When the index was set up, Reform UK barely registered at local level at all. I'm sure it will be updated to reflect the new reality soon  |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 8, 2024 13:38:55 GMT
GWBWI Lab +78 Grn +25 LDm +25 SNP -39 Con -51 Good results from Scotland for the Cons, but outweighed by horrendous figures in Blackpool and Wyre. Nothing outstanding in either direction for the LibDems or Greens, who basically managed not to lose points anywhere. Decent but not superb numbers for Labour We note that Reform UK is an 'Un-Party' to you but your Green friends are accepted. A little unfair, Frank. The Greens have been contesting, winning and holding council seats for some time - my own Green win was 10 years ago! - but RefUK haven't registered - not even consistently contesting - until really the past couple of months. The first thing is that it remains to be seen if this is going to become a habit for Reform - and I think it might well do - and the second is that it is going to be an absoute pain in the backside to rebuild the spreadsheet to add them. I want to wait to see if it happens before I invest the work, but rest assured that if it does happen, I will put the effort in. And I suspect andrewp is right - if I did have figures for Reform, they could well have won this week. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 8, 2024 13:39:20 GMT
We note that Reform UK is an 'Un-Party' to you but your Green friends are accepted. When the index was set up, Reform UK barely registered at local level at all. I'm sure it will be updated to reflect the new reality soon Not sure about 'soon' - see above. |
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 13:47:44 GMT
Well done to the Scottish Tories. As someone who was disppponted by their results in the north east in July, it's good to see they are on the up again.
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Nov 8, 2024 14:08:34 GMT
That feels a tad generous to Labour to me. I think that if they featured, RefUK would have ‘won’ this week. Just a bit. Labour only gained vote share in two of the six wards they stood in this week (and in one of them they went from 0 to 1.4%). They won an additional ward, for sure, but only due to split opposition (their vote fell by a third). Not sure why in this index they've ended up top of the pops. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 14:14:24 GMT
That feels a tad generous to Labour to me. I think that if they featured, RefUK would have ‘won’ this week. Just a bit. Labour only gained vote share in two of the six wards they stood in this week (and in one of them they went from 0 to 1.4%). They won an additional ward, for sure, but only due to split opposition (their vote fell by a third). Not sure why in this index they've ended up top of the pops. Because it is a rubbish index and was from day one when I said so. It is now a dishonest one as well. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Nov 8, 2024 14:43:23 GMT
andrewp, would it be possible to also (maybe monthly) have figures that are simply from July 11th onwards, to give a sense of how things are progressing since the General Election?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 8, 2024 14:46:35 GMT
Just a bit. Labour only gained vote share in two of the six wards they stood in this week (and in one of them they went from 0 to 1.4%). They won an additional ward, for sure, but only due to split opposition (their vote fell by a third). Not sure why in this index they've ended up top of the pops. Because it is a rubbish index and was from day one when I said so. It is now a dishonest one as well. Please feel free to develop something better. I would be delighted to see other people's takes. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 14:59:13 GMT
andrewp , would it be possible to also (maybe monthly) have figures that are simply from July 11th onwards, to give a sense of how things are progressing since the General Election? Yes, I can do that monthly. I think it was felt more useful to consider the electoral year as a whole generally, For info, at the moment the numbers since the GE ( from 11 July onwards) are Lab 41 (-20) Con 39 (+16) LD 19 (+1) Green 8 (+3) Ind 6 (-2) SNP 4 (-1) RefUK 3 (+3) PC 2 (=) Loc 1 (=) |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Nov 8, 2024 15:01:47 GMT
Thanks - that gives quite a different picture (as one would expect)
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Nov 8, 2024 15:09:02 GMT
Blackpool is the 1st Labour gain from the Conservatives in England since the General election, and the 2nd overall after one in Arran in September It's almost a quiz question. Where did the Labour vote drop by over 16% yet was still a gain from the Tories. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 8, 2024 15:26:15 GMT
That feels a tad generous to Labour to me. I think that if they featured, RefUK would have ‘won’ this week. Just a bit. Labour only gained vote share in two of the six wards they stood in this week (and in one of them they went from 0 to 1.4%). They won an additional ward, for sure, but only due to split opposition (their vote fell by a third). Not sure why in this index they've ended up top of the pops. Because you surely can't just go by contextless vote share? Blackpool/Wyre were both straight Tory/Labour fights last year and this time were anything but. Any sort of gain should surely get you points as well. Objectively speaking Labour's most disappointing result was maybe in Elgin, but in such places there is always the chance the previous support was significantly personality based. Bracknell Forest, meanwhile, is somewhere they have been weak historically even if not in 2023. Also, whatever else you say it is a better Labour performance overall than has been the norm in recent weeks! Given all that, the jamesdoyle score is arguably pretty fair. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 8, 2024 15:45:02 GMT
Moray, Elgin City South first round percentage and changes SNP 32.2% (-3.3) Con 31.6% (+4.8) Lab 18.5% (-9.6) LD 17.8% (+14.7) No Ind from before In a 3-seat ordinary election that would be 1 seat each for SNP and C, with their surpluses deciding the final seat between Lab and LD. I suspect Lab would prevail but it's difficult to know for sure. I'll look into the preference profiles for the other Scottish wards when I get home next week. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 8, 2024 15:55:13 GMT
Just a bit. Labour only gained vote share in two of the six wards they stood in this week (and in one of them they went from 0 to 1.4%). They won an additional ward, for sure, but only due to split opposition (their vote fell by a third). Not sure why in this index they've ended up top of the pops. Because you surely can't just go by contextless vote share? Blackpool/Wyre were both straight Tory/Labour fights last year and this time were anything but. Any sort of gain should surely get you points as well. Objectively speaking Labour's most disappointing result was maybe in Elgin, but in such places there is always the chance the previous support was significantly personality based. Bracknell Forest, meanwhile, is somewhere they have been weak historically even if not in 2023. Also, whatever else you say it is a better Labour performance overall than has been the norm in recent weeks! Given all that, the jamesdoyle score is arguably pretty fair. Labour got positive scores in Blackpool, Bracknell Forest and Inverclyde: +35, +28, +45. Moray and Elgin were negative, -16 and -13. The Conservative positives in Aberdeenshire (x3) and Moray were similar, at +30, +36, +35 and +39. But the bad ones were very bad at -80 (Blackpool) and -109 (Wyre). LibDems had nothing bigger than +13, but no negatives, Greens had nothing more than +25, but again no negatives. Reform would have got good scores not simply from gains but because of big swings, and because (in Wyre) they are establishing a foothold on a council - gains when you have very little representation on a council or when you are close to a majority are more 'valuable' in the GWBWI. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Nov 8, 2024 15:57:50 GMT
Just a bit. Labour only gained vote share in two of the six wards they stood in this week (and in one of them they went from 0 to 1.4%). They won an additional ward, for sure, but only due to split opposition (their vote fell by a third). Not sure why in this index they've ended up top of the pops. Because you surely can't just go by contextless vote share? Blackpool/Wyre were both straight Tory/Labour fights last year and this time were anything but. Any sort of gain should surely get you points as well. Objectively speaking Labour's most disappointing result was maybe in Elgin, but in such places there is always the chance the previous support was significantly personality based. Bracknell Forest, meanwhile, is somewhere they have been weak historically even if not in 2023. Also, whatever else you say it is a better Labour performance overall than has been the norm in recent weeks! Given all that, the jamesdoyle score is arguably pretty fair. No doubt there are different ways of doing things. But, personally speaking, I think declines in vote share nearly across the board (alongside a few non-appearances) should be enough to prevent a party from being top of any pile unless every other party is somehow doing even worse - and I don't think that is the case here. And if you're arguing that "any sort of gain should surely get you points", then the Tories also gained one (in Elgin) and increased their lead at the top in two others in Scotland, which therefore raises the question of why they ended up not just behind Labour (which is clearly justifiable) but right at the bottom and below even the SNP. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 16:12:19 GMT
I would say Labour had a poorish night in many places, which was saved by the win in Blackpool, and a decent performance in Inverclyde. So an Ok night. The Conservatives had a good night in Scotland and a terrible one in 2 contests in England and a not great/ meh one in the other two
Vote share summary
Labour
Scotland
Inverclyde +7.9
Moray -9.6
England
Wyre -15
Blackpool -16.3
Bracknell -29.3
Herefordshire- change not available but polled 1.4%
Average -12.5% where a comparison is possible
Conservative
Scotland
Central Buchan +8
Mearns +7.5
Inverclyde +5.7
Moray +4.8
Fraserburgh +3.9
England
Bracknell +0.8
Herefordshire -2.9
Wyre -27.2
Blackpool -29.2
Average -3.2%
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 8, 2024 17:25:37 GMT
Must be the safest Lab ward in Bracknell. Not sure there's ever been such a thing as a safe Labour ward in Bracknell Forest, but yes it was the most Labour ward in 2023. I was saying that on the basis that 46.1% + 27.8% = 73.9% although I haven't checked myself. |
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Post by batman on Nov 8, 2024 18:03:38 GMT
I would say Labour had a poorish night in many places, which was saved by the win in Blackpool, and a decent performance in Inverclyde. So an Ok night. The Conservatives had a good night in Scotland and a terrible one in 2 contests in England and a not great/ meh one in the other two Vote share summary Labour Scotland Inverclyde +7.9 Moray -9.6 England Wyre -15 Blackpool -16.3 Bracknell -29.3 Herefordshire- change not available but polled 1.4% Average -12.5% where a comparison is possible Conservative Scotland Central Buchan +8 Mearns +7.5 Inverclyde +5.7 Moray +4.8 Fraserburgh +3.9 England Bracknell +0.8 Herefordshire -2.9 Wyre -27.2 Blackpool -29.2 Average -3.2% we didn't stand in "many places" this week. Our performance was obviously poor in that hotbed of socialism which is rural or semi-rural Herefordshire, and not particularly good in Wyre although there was actually a small swing from Con to Lab (as the Tories did worse still) or Moray. The result in Bracknell is historically pretty decent & we did pretty well in Inverclyde too. |
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greyfriar
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Post by greyfriar on Nov 8, 2024 19:17:26 GMT
The Labour figure for Elgin South needs context - both the Labour incumbent and the previous SNP councillor in this ward had substantial personal votes in 2022.
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Post by batman on Nov 8, 2024 19:43:08 GMT
Labour has had some good previous results in Elgin as well, though, and must surely have carried the town in the 2001 general election in particular. The result is a little disappointing for us, though not disastrous.
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