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Post by redvers on Nov 9, 2024 0:55:29 GMT
Not sure there's ever been such a thing as a safe Labour ward in Bracknell Forest, but yes it was the most Labour ward in 2023. I was saying that on the basis that 46.1% + 27.8% = 73.9% although I haven't checked myself. Oh it wasn't a dig, just that it wasn't so long ago that there was only 1 Labour councillor in the borough, and that same ward still elected another Conservative. So historically speaking, it's hard to talk about safe Labour areas in Bracknell Forest. Even the 73.9% is deceptive, as the top-line candidate (and now Labour council leader) had an obviously significant personal vote. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 9, 2024 6:11:09 GMT
I was saying that on the basis that 46.1% + 27.8% = 73.9% although I haven't checked myself. Oh it wasn't a dig, just that it wasn't so long ago that there was only 1 Labour councillor in the borough, and that same ward still elected another Conservative. So historically speaking, it's hard to talk about safe Labour areas in Bracknell Forest. Even the 73.9% is deceptive, as the top-line candidate (and now Labour council leader) had an obviously significant personal vote. What's the story with Bracknell? in 1997 it was still very safe for the Conservatives? Demographic change? Housebuilding? I'm very curious about the area. |
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Post by robert1 on Nov 9, 2024 8:33:23 GMT
I think there there had been 12 by-elections in Scotland since July 4th and before this week.
What is striking about this week's results is that of the previous 12 only 1 (Kintyre 18th July) had shown a percentage rise in the Tory vote share from the previous election. This week all 5 achieved that advance!
This appears to have been despite some fairly brutal fratricidal disputes identified up thread.
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Post by sanders on Nov 9, 2024 8:45:04 GMT
I think there there had been 12 by-elections in Scotland since July 4th and before this week. What is striking about this week's results is that of the previous 12 only 1 (Kintyre 18th July) had shown a percentage rise in the Tory vote share from the previous election. This week all 5 achieved that advance! This appears to have been despite some fairly brutal fratricidal disputes identified up thread. These are all in CON-SNP marginals. The Tories are fairly organised in the North East of Scotland. They've been doing pretty well there since 2016. |
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Post by batman on Nov 9, 2024 8:45:47 GMT
And yet in England their results were awful. A real dichotomy is starting to emerge but it could simply be a transitory phenomenon
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Post by robert1 on Nov 9, 2024 9:15:59 GMT
I think there there had been 12 by-elections in Scotland since July 4th and before this week. What is striking about this week's results is that of the previous 12 only 1 (Kintyre 18th July) had shown a percentage rise in the Tory vote share from the previous election. This week all 5 achieved that advance! This appears to have been despite some fairly brutal fratricidal disputes identified up thread. These are all in CON-SNP marginals. The Tories are fairly organised in the North East of Scotland. They've been doing pretty well there since 2016. When I last looked Inverclyde wasn't in the North East. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 9, 2024 9:20:17 GMT
These are all in CON-SNP marginals. The Tories are fairly organised in the North East of Scotland. They've been doing pretty well there since 2016. When I last looked Inverclyde wasn't in the North East. Obviously I'm talking about the gains! |
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Post by batman on Nov 9, 2024 10:28:50 GMT
I'm sure Gourock which is in that division of Inverclyde used to be a Tory town at least to some extent. I certainly remember the West Renfrew & Inverclyde constituency being won by the Tory, Anna McCurley.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 9, 2024 10:37:33 GMT
Oh it wasn't a dig, just that it wasn't so long ago that there was only 1 Labour councillor in the borough, and that same ward still elected another Conservative. So historically speaking, it's hard to talk about safe Labour areas in Bracknell Forest. Even the 73.9% is deceptive, as the top-line candidate (and now Labour council leader) had an obviously significant personal vote. What's the story with Bracknell? in 1997 it was still very safe for the Conservatives? Demographic change? Housebuilding? I'm very curious about the area. I’m not sure if it’s moved left that much. Maybe a little bit. On the pure numbers, compared to 1997, one could explain it simply by the impact of reform Uk. in 1997 it voted Con 47% Lab 30% Ref and UKIP combined 4% in 2024 it voted Con 32% Lab 34% , RefUK 17%. So Labour are up a bit from 1997 , but clearly had RefUK been less successful or not stood, the result would in all likelihood have not been that different from1997. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 9, 2024 10:53:59 GMT
I think there there had been 12 by-elections in Scotland since July 4th and before this week. What is striking about this week's results is that of the previous 12 only 1 (Kintyre 18th July) had shown a percentage rise in the Tory vote share from the previous election. This week all 5 achieved that advance! This appears to have been despite some fairly brutal fratricidal disputes identified up thread. Without disputing this, I think there does need to be an air of caution as 4 of the 5 contests previously had a significant independent vote which would muddy the waters as far as vote share changes go. The exception is Elgin which was perhaps objectively the best Tory performance vs expectations. Also, as far as I can tell brutal fratricidal disputes seems to be pretty much the norm in Aberdeenshire politics, so might already be baked into the results  |
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Post by greyfriar on Nov 9, 2024 10:58:18 GMT
I think there there had been 12 by-elections in Scotland since July 4th and before this week. What is striking about this week's results is that of the previous 12 only 1 (Kintyre 18th July) had shown a percentage rise in the Tory vote share from the previous election. This week all 5 achieved that advance! This appears to have been despite some fairly brutal fratricidal disputes identified up thread. Without disputing this, I think there does need to be an air of caution as 4 of the 5 contests previously had a significant independent vote which would muddy the waters as far as vote share changes go. The exception is Elgin which was perhaps objectively the best Tory performance vs expectations. Also, as far as I can tell brutal fratricidal disputes seems to be pretty much the norm in Aberdeenshire politics, so might already be baked into the results The Elgin result may have been as much down to a good doorstep campaign and handwritten letters as anything to do with the party : www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/the-last-half-hour-it-just-went-quiet-new-councillor-on-365837/sanders take note. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 9, 2024 10:59:38 GMT
And yet in England their results were awful. A real dichotomy is starting to emerge but it could simply be a transitory phenomenon Its almost a banally obvious thing to say, but quite a bit depends on which vacancies are actually up for election. For instance, most previous Scottish byelections since the GE have been in much less intrinsically promising territory for the Tories. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 9, 2024 11:06:01 GMT
I think there there had been 12 by-elections in Scotland since July 4th and before this week. What is striking about this week's results is that of the previous 12 only 1 (Kintyre 18th July) had shown a percentage rise in the Tory vote share from the previous election. This week all 5 achieved that advance! This appears to have been despite some fairly brutal fratricidal disputes identified up thread. Without disputing this, I think there does need to be an air of caution as 4 of the 5 contests previously had a significant independent vote which would muddy the waters as far as vote share changes go. The exception is Elgin which was perhaps objectively the best Tory performance vs expectations. Also, as far as I can tell brutal fratricidal disputes seems to be pretty much the norm in Aberdeenshire politics, so might already be baked into the results That’s the challenge and joy of interpreting local election results- there are so many variables, and there is very often not a straightforward unarguable conclusion. James’s GWBWI attempts to get an overall reading of performance and does a good job but there is nearly always room for debate. Obviously personal votes either from the previous election or at the by election can make interpreting performance a challenge and candidate patterns certainly can. There are a lot of wards in England where on the same day, with the same voters, a candidate list of Con/ Lab/ LD/ Green would lead to a Con win and a candidate list of Con/Lab/RefUK/Ind would lead to a Lab win. Like Blackpool this week. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 9, 2024 11:32:45 GMT
And yet in England their results were awful. A real dichotomy is starting to emerge but it could simply be a transitory phenomenon Its almost a banally obvious thing to say, but quite a bit depends on which vacancies are actually up for election. For instance, most previous Scottish byelections since the GE have been in much less intrinsically promising territory for the Tories. My general observation would be that the Scottish Tory vote is moving away from the prosperous Remainer-y suburbs and commuter towns and towards the more Brexit-y rural and coastal areas. |
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Post by redvers on Nov 9, 2024 11:38:14 GMT
Oh it wasn't a dig, just that it wasn't so long ago that there was only 1 Labour councillor in the borough, and that same ward still elected another Conservative. So historically speaking, it's hard to talk about safe Labour areas in Bracknell Forest. Even the 73.9% is deceptive, as the top-line candidate (and now Labour council leader) had an obviously significant personal vote. What's the story with Bracknell? in 1997 it was still very safe for the Conservatives? Demographic change? Housebuilding? I'm very curious about the area. So few things at play here. The first thing to say is the boundaries are quite different from 1997. Back then, it included pretty much all of Bracknell Forest - including the more rural northern bits - as well as the then ultra-conservative areas of Finchampstead and Wokingham Without. As the population of Bracknell itself grew, the boundaries became ever more tight around the town, to the extent that now the constituency dropped the Wokingham bits, dropped the rural bits, and is basically Bracknell, Sandhurst, Crowthorne, and parts of Warfield. On the 1997 boundaries, Labour would still have lost handsomely. There is also the impact of Reform. Doubtless if they hadn't stood, the Conservatives would still have won. However, there are some genuine changes. There are far more liberaly type people moving into Bracknell, who might work in places like Reading and London but can't afford the house prices there. The phenomenon has also extended to Crowthorne, where there's a detectable small-l liberal movement in its politics. It also helped that, in 2023, the Bracknell Conservatives lost their entire base of councillors in Bracknell town, something which had not happened even in the run-up to 1997, so that's a campaign base decimated. In truth, I think the local Tories had got so used to winning, they didn't know how to campaign as underdogs. It still shows they don't really know how being in opposition works. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 9, 2024 12:45:32 GMT
Interesting however that Fraserburgh saw an SNP increase and swing in their favour, in contrast to the other two Aberdeenshire contests. Cocaine |
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Post by certain on Nov 9, 2024 16:24:33 GMT
Moray, Elgin City South first round percentage and changes SNP 32.2% (-3.3) Con 31.6% (+4.8) Lab 18.5% (-9.6) LD 17.8% (+14.7) No Ind from before In a 3-seat ordinary election that would be 1 seat each for SNP and C, with their surpluses deciding the final seat between Lab and LD. I suspect Lab would prevail but it's difficult to know for sure. I'll look into the preference profiles for the other Scottish wards when I get home next week. Moray Council seems to have done something very unusual here: held a manual count (unless I'm missing something). This meant they did not have a "postfinal stage" and declared the candidate elected at the correct stage 3. And the final result, a majority of 67, actually appeared in the press! Will they get a ticking-off from the Scottish government? |
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Post by uthacalthing on Nov 10, 2024 1:38:58 GMT
Aberdeenshire. Fraserburgh and District Con 1145 SNP 895 RefUK 817 LD 222 SFP 71 Con gain from SNP after transfers I confess to being disappointed. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 5:50:40 GMT
Aberdeenshire. Fraserburgh and District Con 1145 SNP 895 RefUK 817 LD 222 SFP 71 Con gain from SNP after transfers I confess to being disappointed. If Reform had outpolled the SNP, in the first round do you think they would have won this? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 10, 2024 6:13:15 GMT
I confess to being disappointed. If Reform had outpolled the SNP, in the first round do you think they would have won this? Reform is not transfer friendly. They'd have needed to have surpassed the Tories in the first round to win. |
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