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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 12:12:04 GMT
Aberdeenshire, Central Buchan Con 1260 SNP 869 LD 435 RefUK 331 SFP 83 Ind 71 Con gain from SNP after transfers These are excellent Conservative results in areas that when I was an active Conservative were always solidly sound areas. Are we returning to a bit of realism in Scotland after years of SNP/LD total insanity? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 8, 2024 12:18:35 GMT
Interesting however that Fraserburgh saw an SNP increase and swing in their favour, in contrast to the other two Aberdeenshire contests.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 12:20:24 GMT
Elgin City South, Moray- first preferences SNP 849 Con 834 Lab 487 LD 466 Predictions from there? I’d have thought CON will win but it’s going to come down to Lab transfers. LD more CON than SNP, but LAB could be 50-50 or slightly SNP. At best this may be very close indeed. Exciting stuff. This could be an area where Reform trade seats for a free hand in parts of northern England with the CON? |
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Post by redvers on Nov 8, 2024 12:22:06 GMT
LAB hold in Great Hollands, Bracknell Forest Lab: 681 (46.1%) -27.8% from 2023 Con: 411 (27.8%) +1.7% Reform: 208 (14.1%) Ind (former Tory councillor): 158 (10.7%) Heritage: 20 (1.4%) Reform, Ind, Heritage did not stand in 2023 Swing from Lab to Con, 14.75% Turnout 22.31%, down from 33% in 2023 Must be the safest Lab ward in Bracknell. Not sure there's ever been such a thing as a safe Labour ward in Bracknell Forest, but yes it was the most Labour ward in 2023. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 8, 2024 12:30:17 GMT
Indeed there was at least one occasion (in the 1980s) when the old district council was 100% Conservative.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 8, 2024 12:32:00 GMT
Elgin City South stage 2
Kirby (C) 834 + 128 = 962
Mitchell (SNP) 849 + 79 = 928
McBain (Lab) 487 + 128 = 615
Alexander (L Dem) 466 - 466 = 0
non-transferable 131
McBain now eliminated.
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Post by redvers on Nov 8, 2024 12:32:17 GMT
Indeed there was at least one occasion (in the 1980s) when the old district council was 100% Conservative. Tory clean sweep in 1983 and 1987, and almost in 2015 when they got 41/42. Makes the turnaround in the past 10 years even more remarkable, a Labour majority council and a Labour MP. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Nov 8, 2024 12:33:37 GMT
INVERCLYDE Inverclyde West (Ward 5) Ian Hellyer (Scottish Labour Party) 932 Robert Kirkpatrick (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 923 Ted Runciman (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 415 Christopher William McEleny (Alba Party) 239 John Stuart Bennet Burleigh (Reform UK) 230 No news on transfers. ; but the main event was always going to be a fight-to-the-death LAB-SNP affair. This is very tight and just for the moment I am unsure who I want to see winning? The Alba candidate is one of the party's most senior figures and an ex-councillor - so the order is more a reflection of his relative popularity (Alba's 8.7% percentage here is higher than the share received in any ward they contested at the 2022 local elections) than an especially poor Reform showing. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 12:37:26 GMT
Elgin City South stage 2 Kirby (C) 834 + 128 = 962 Mitchell (SNP) 849 + 79 = 928 McBain (Lab) 487 + 128 = 615 Alexander (L Dem) 466 - 466 = 0 non-transferable 131 McBain now eliminated. I was wrong. The LDs broke 50-50 for CON and LAB. Very exciting now. Will it be another 50-50 split or shaded to the SNP? |
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 8, 2024 12:40:00 GMT
It’s a welcome relief to be making headway in Scotland against the SNP after a very sobering and worrying night.
It seems we’re doing well against Labour, so so against the Lib Dems (gains and losses either way some weeks) but like a snowman standing next to a fireplace against Reform, where they intervene. I’m concerned about the impact this might have on our chances of getting rid of this Labour government in 2029. I don’t think any of this can be blamed on Kemi Badenoch; she’s only just become leader. Hopefully she will get enough time to make an impact by mitigating Reform’s threat. She seems well aware of the threat they pose, and is already being careful to avoid speaking ill of them.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 12:41:33 GMT
Indeed there was at least one occasion (in the 1980s) when the old district council was 100% Conservative. Tory clean sweep in 1983 and 1987, and almost in 2015 when they got 41/42. Makes the turnaround in the past 10 years even more remarkable, a Labour majority council and a Labour MP. But probably a rather brief aberration, as with CON in Stoke? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 8, 2024 13:00:54 GMT
Conservatives win Elgin City South 1,160 to 1,093.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 13:01:55 GMT
It’s a welcome relief to be making headway in Scotland against the SNP after a very sobering and worrying night. It seems we’re doing well against Labour, so so against the Lib Dems (gains and losses either way some weeks) but like a snowman standing next to a fireplace against Reform, where they intervene. I’m concerned about the impact this might have on our chances of getting rid of this Labour government in 2029. I don’t think any of this can be blamed on Kemi Badenoch; she’s only just become leader. Hopefully she will get enough time to make an impact by mitigating Reform’s threat. She’s already been careful to avoid speaking ill of them. There needs to be a policy in both of our parties to ensure the 'enemy' is clearly defined to be LAB/LD rather than 'ourselves'. We can see that it is important to ensure this is a single term LAB administration and to reduce the size of the ugly LD rump which adds nothing to any position at all. We cannot effectively stand everywhere, but will you be content to stand down in perhaps a 100 or so seats to our advantage? It will be a new and unwelcome experience to have to share out seats and generations of fighting every seat! Once one stands down, one abandons a section of support, possibly forever, and many of those may move on to new constituencies but maintain the same affiliation? Can CON stomach such a new approach? If we are moving into a period of hung parliaments and coalition, even of PR, you may have to get used to this? The alternative is to slug it out until a war of attrition bleeds one of us to death (probably Reform) during which time LAB could hang on in there and the LDs prosper. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 13:03:31 GMT
Net scores and changes for the week
Con 4 (+2)
Lab 3 (+1)
Green 1 (=)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 0 (-4)
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 13:06:25 GMT
Moray, Elgin City South first round percentage and changes
SNP 32.2% (-3.3)
Con 31.6% (+4.8)
Lab 18.5% (-9.6)
LD 17.8% (+14.7)
No Ind from before
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 8, 2024 13:12:05 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +78
Grn +25
LDm +25
SNP -39
Con -51
Good results from Scotland for the Cons, but outweighed by horrendous figures in Blackpool and Wyre.
Nothing outstanding in either direction for the LibDems or Greens, who basically managed not to lose points anywhere.
Decent but not superb numbers for Labour
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 13:15:46 GMT
That feels a tad generous to Labour to me.
I think that if they featured, RefUK would have ‘won’ this week.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 13:17:50 GMT
Moray, Elgin City South changes SNP 32.2% (-3.3) Con 31.6% (+4.8) Lab 18.5% (-9.6) LD 17.8% (+14.7) No Ind from before That is a bit confusing without relating it to '1st Round' or 'CON win'. Oddly the major change in the primary vote is for a LD minor durge despite being first to be eliminated. So, before their supporters knew it was a lost cause this time, the prime moves were away from LAB and to LD. Congratulations to CON on a fine result. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2024 13:32:25 GMT
GWBWI Lab +78 Grn +25 LDm +25 SNP -39 Con -51 Good results from Scotland for the Cons, but outweighed by horrendous figures in Blackpool and Wyre. Nothing outstanding in either direction for the LibDems or Greens, who basically managed not to lose points anywhere. Decent but not superb numbers for Labour We note that Reform UK is an 'Un-Party' to you but your Green friends are accepted. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 13:33:54 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 9 contests held on the 7th November , there have now been 199 ordinary by elections for 201 seats since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 44 - held 28 and lost 16- 7 to Labour, 5 to the Lib Dems, 2 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 64%) and have gained 30
Labour have defended 103- held 75 and lost 28- 15 to the Conservatives, 6 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the SNP and 2 to RefUK ( retention rate 73%) and have gained 11
The Lib Dems have defended 27- held 18 and lost 9- 5 to the Conservatives, 2 to Labour and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 8
The Greens have defended 6- held 5 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 6
RefUK have gained 4 seats
SNP have defended 5, held 1 and lost 4 ( retention rate 20%) and have gained 3 seats
PC have defended 2, held 1 and lost 1 ( retention rate 50%) and have gained 1 seat
There have been 13 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 5 were gained by the Conservatives 2 by Labour, and 1 by Plaid and an Independent has gained 4 seats
Localist groups have defended 1, held 1
Overall totals and net changes since May
Con 58 (+14)
Lab 86 (-17)
LD 26 (-1)
Green 11 (+5)
Ind 9 (-4)
RefUK 4 (+4)
SNP 4 (-1)
PC 2 (=)
Loc 1 (=)
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