Local Council by-elections 7th November 2024

[Tony Otim]

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Central Buchan (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
BAILEY, Ian (Liberal Democrat)
CHAPMAN, Peter (Conservative)
CURWEN, Andrew (Reform UK)
REYNOLDS, Phil (Scottish Family Party)
WARD, Dean (Independent)
WILKEN, Sarah (SNP)

2022: Con 871, 679; SNP 744, 705; LD 607; Ind 527; Lab 213; Grn 135; Alba 111; SFP 65
2017: Con 1808; SNP 1188, 486; Ind 863; LD 505

Ian Bailey was the LD candidate for Aberdeenshire North & Moray East (which contains part of this ward, although most is in Gordon and Buchan) at the General Election and he stood in Troup in 2022.


ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Fraserburgh & District (SNP resigned following election as MP for Aberdeenshire North & Moray)
Candidates:
LESLIE, Sandy (Liberal Democrat)
McDONALD, Mike (SNP)
RITCHIE, Conrad (Reform UK)
SMITH, Dawn (Scottish Family Party)
SUTHERLAND, Iain (Conservative)

2022: Con 1526; Ind 1509; SNP 941; Alba 274; LD 228; Ind 182; SFP 43
2017: SNP 652, 614, 256; Con 1229; Ind 743, 496, 329, 252: Lab 267; LD 262;

In 2022, Sandy Leslie (LD) stood in Banff & District and Iain Sutherland (Con) in Peterhead North & Rattray where he was a sitting cllr elected as Ind in 2017


ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Mearns (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
KNIGHTS, Isobel (Liberal Democrat)
LEITH, Claudia (Reform UK)
LINEGAR, William (Green)
SCOTT, Hannah (SNP)
SMITH, Tracey (Conservative)

2022: Con 1217, 619; SNP 1677; Ind 623, 513, 75; LD 377; Lab 336; Grn 194; Alba 99; SFP 52
2017: Con 2034, 461; SNP 901, 700; LD 599; Ind 472; Grn 233; Lab 220

William Linegar contested West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (which contains this ward) at the General election. Claudia Leith (Ref) was the Conservative candidate in Aboyne, Upper Deeside & Donside in 2022.

Current Council: Con 22; SNP 16; Ind 15; LD 14; 3 vacancies



BLACKPOOL UA; Bispham (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BANKS, William Thomas (Reform UK)
BENFOLD, Kevan Michael (Liberal Democrats)
McKEVITT, Joel (Labour)
SCOTT, Rick (Independent)
THOMAS, Ben (Green)
WATSON, Lynda (Conservative)

2023: Con 671, 666; Lab 621, 616

Ben Thomas was the Green candidate for Blackpool South (this ward is in North) at both the by-election and General earlier in the year and also stood in the recent Marton by-election and in Greenlands last May. Will Banks (Ref) stood for the Conservatives in Talbot in May last year, Kevan Benfold (LD) stood in Warbreck and Rick Scott (Ind) stood for the Conservatives in Greenlands where he was incumbent Tory cllr (2019-23).

Current Council: Lab 27; Con 13; Reform 1; 1 vacancy



BRACKNELL FOREST UA; Great Hollands (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GDABEDO, Michael (Independent)
HOUSEGO, Sue (Conservative)
PRESSLAND, Donna Louise (Labour)
REARDON, Jason Peter (Heritage)
WRIGHT, Colin (Reform UK)

2023: Lab 1666, 1323, 1301; Con 588, 545, 470

Jason Reardon stood in Bracknell constituency at the General Election for Heritage and stood in Harman’s Water & Crown Wood last May. Michael Gdabedo (Ind) was the top Conservative candidate in 2023 and former Conservative Cllr for Great Hollands South (2019-23) on previous boundaries.

Current Council: Lab 21; Con 10; LD 7; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



HEREFORDSHIRE UA; Bishops Frome & Cradley (Grn resigned following election as MP for North Herefordshire)
Candidates:
FRANKLIN, Mark (Conservative)
GRENAR, Sandy (Labour)
JAMES, Dave (Reform UK)
TULLY, Rebecca (Green)
WEST, Nicki (Liberal Democrats)

2023: Grn 801; Con 316; LD 45
2019: Grn 974; Con 265
Nov 17by: Grn 471; Con 299; LD 251; Lab 19
2015:Con 1331; Grn 610

Mark Franklin was the Conservative candidate here last May, when Rebecca Tully stood for the Greens in Three Crosses.

Current Council: Con 21; LD 12; Grn 8; Ind for Herefordshire 7; True Ind 2; Lab 1; Ungrouped 1; 1 vacancy



INVERCLYDE UA; Inverclyde West (Lab resigned following election as MP for Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West)
Candidates:
BURLEIGH, John Stuart Bennet (Reform UK)
HELLYER, Ian (Labour)
KIRKPATRICK, Robert (SNP)
McELENY, Christopher William (Alba)
RUNCIMAN, Ted (Conservative)

2022: Ind 1440; SNP 1271; Lab 1247; Con 453; LD 171; Alba 126; Ind 66
2017: Ind 2189, 199; SNP 1163; Lab 584; Con 510; LD 185; UKIP 20

Ted Runciman (Con) and Christopher McElneny (Alba) both contested Inverclyde & Renfewshire West at the General Election with John Burleigh (Reform) also standing as an Independent. All 3 also stood here in 2022 with Burleigh on that occasion being the Lib Dem candidate and McElneny the incumbent elected as SNP (first elected in 2012).

Current Council: Lab 8; SNP 6; Ind 5; Con 2; 1 vacancy



MORAY UA; Elgin City South (SNP resigned following election as MP for Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey)
Candidates:
ALEXANDER, Neil (Liberal Democrat)
KIRBY, Elaine (Conservative)
McBAIN, Catriona (Labour)
MITCHELL, Laura (SNP)

2022: SNP1444; Lab 1142; Con 1090; Ind 161, 101; LD 124
2017: Con 1460; SNP 1245; Lab 1009; Ind 347

Neil Alexander was the Lib Dem candidate for Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey at the General election and stood in Elgin City North in 2022.

Current Council: Con 8; SNP 7; Ind 4; Lab 3; Con Non-aligned 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



WYRE DC; Marsh Mill (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BALLARD, Howard John (Conservative)
CRAWFORD, James (Reform UK)
MASON, James Matthew (Labour)
MONTAGUE, Caroline Elizabeth (Green)

2023: Con 902, 900, 805; Lab 659, 616, 594
2019: Con 957, 934, 845; Lab 512, 497, 487; LD 233
2015: Con 1484, 1474, 1340; Lab 1000, 968, 902; UKIP 839; Grn 413

Howard Ballard (Con) is a former cllr for Bourne ward (2015-2023), where he lost his seat last May. 1 of the other councillors for this ward has now joined Reform.

Current Council: Con 28; Lab 17; Wyre Ind Grp 2; Ind 1; RefUK 1; 1 vacancy

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Chris McEleny, Alba Party candidate in Inverclyde, was the first SNP councillor to defect to Alba in 2021, and is General Secretary of the Alba Party.

[tucson]

Not one Labour candidate in the Aberdeenshire by-elections?

[Merseymike]

Oct 14, 2024 21:48:37 GMT tucson said:

Not one Labour candidate in the Aberdeenshire by-elections?

Probably not. No Labour councillors, there are Con, SNP and LibDems. Labour won't win , never do.

[spqr]

I presume the Peter Chapman standing for the Conservatives in Central Buchan is the former MSP of that name?

[michaelarden]

Hard to see the SNP holding any of their defences (with the possible exception of Elgin), though the impact on the Tory vote of the Reform interventions will be interesting to see (and where they transfer to).

[sanders]

Oct 17, 2024 9:20:17 GMT michaelarden said:

Hard to see the SNP holding any of their defences (with the possible exception of Elgin), though the impact on the Tory vote of the Reform interventions will be interesting to see (and where they transfer to).

Reform vote here should transfer Tory. Not all of it, of course. But that's why Tories lost ANME. Fully, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East. A huge defection to Reform there. I was very surprised they lost. But that candidate change kneecapped them. Poor old David Duguid would've won. Aberdeenshire should be good for Tories. If they're losing they're, they're screwed. At least the Scots Tories anyway. Fraserburgh could be good for Reform. It was heavily pro-Brexit in 2016. It has a lot of fishing. 

[casualobserver]

Oct 14, 2024 19:34:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Chris McEleny, Alba Party candidate in Inverclyde, was the first SNP councillor to defect to Alba in 2021, and is General Secretary of the Alba Party.

I expected Alba to be an irrelevance in this by-election. To be honest, I still expect that.

But fair dos to Chris McEleny who’s certainly getting his name out there effectively:

www.greenocktelegraph.co.uk/news/24645422.chris-mceleny-stand-alba-party-gourock-by-election/

uk.news.yahoo.com/gourock-election-candidate-vows-campaign-125242911.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKSbpHVU-VUneMVqYlHNIuBfDlre_Ltvveofb3Csrczlw1x2Nyq-LQqDVrqVYSoL5EWJpiUAjDqyhdMjZZU2e-aBl85abbtxxtjkor2AnCabsTggKuT9_n1RWKvBc1kcjCUFuwMlViFO1A1W_Qd7bGCfpuxz93jjVRiJ7aLs7a2K

www.albaparty.org/sarwar_grilled_in_gourock_over_winter_fuel_payment_cuts

www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cew1q4y5x5eo

x.com/ChrisMcEleny/status/1741218611354652944/photo/1

(Sorry that some may find that pinned promotional photo in the last link a bit creepy in the circumstances)

[uthacalthing]

Oct 14, 2024 19:30:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Fraserburgh & District (SNP resigned following election as MP for Aberdeenshire North & Moray)
Candidates:
LESLIE, Sandy (Liberal Democrat)
McDONALD, Mike (SNP)
RITCHIE, Conrad (Reform UK)
SMITH, Dawn (Scottish Family Party)
SUTHERLAND, Iain (Conservative)

2022: Con 1526; Ind 1509; SNP 941; Alba 274; LD 228; Ind 182; SFP 43
2017: SNP 652, 614, 256; Con 1229; Ind 743, 496, 329, 252: Lab 267; LD 262;

In 2022, Sandy Leslie (LD) stood in Banff & District and Iain Sutherland (Con) in Peterhead North & Rattray where he was a sitting cllr elected as Ind in 2017

As you can see, a strong Conservative showing and a strong Indy showing, with Indy being a local cipher for Not SNP.  No Indys standing to muddy the water.

Conservatives in local disarray following the Douglas Ross/David Duguid fiasco. SNP in similar disarray, but Alba also in disarray.  

Ross lost by 942 while Reform polled 5562 with a bizarre English/Vegetarian/Republican parachuted in candidate. Duguid would have held comfortably from his hospital bed. 

Conrad Ritchie, Managing Director of Score Group funded Duguids successful campaign (his dad funded mine a decade earlier) and failed to fund Ross's losing one. Now Conrad is funding his own council campaign as the Reform candidate. 

Former Conservative Council leader and Scottish Parliament PPC Mark Findlater has just defected to Reform in the adjacent ward along with another ex Conservative Councilor. In FPTP, the Tory /Reform split might give this seat to the SNP. Under STV/AV

I am calling this for Reform  

[sanders]

Oct 31, 2024 1:46:17 GMT uthacalthing said:

Oct 14, 2024 19:30:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Fraserburgh & District (SNP resigned following election as MP for Aberdeenshire North & Moray)
Candidates:
LESLIE, Sandy (Liberal Democrat)
McDONALD, Mike (SNP)
RITCHIE, Conrad (Reform UK)
SMITH, Dawn (Scottish Family Party)
SUTHERLAND, Iain (Conservative)

2022: Con 1526; Ind 1509; SNP 941; Alba 274; LD 228; Ind 182; SFP 43
2017: SNP 652, 614, 256; Con 1229; Ind 743, 496, 329, 252: Lab 267; LD 262;

In 2022, Sandy Leslie (LD) stood in Banff & District and Iain Sutherland (Con) in Peterhead North & Rattray where he was a sitting cllr elected as Ind in 2017

As you can see, a strong Conservative showing and a strong Indy showing, with Indy being a local cipher for Not SNP.  No Indys standing to muddy the water.

Conservatives in local disarray following the Douglas Ross/David Duguid fiasco. SNP in similar disarray, but Alba also in disarray.  

Ross lost by 942 while Reform polled 5562 with a bizarre English/Vegetarian/Republican parachuted in candidate. Duguid would have held comfortably from his hospital bed. 

Conrad Ritchie, Managing Director of Score Group funded Duguids successful campaign (his dad funded mine a decade earlier) and failed to fund Ross's losing one. Now Conrad is funding his own council campaign as the Reform candidate. 

Former Conservative Council leader and Scottish Parliament PPC Mark Findlater has just defected to Reform in the adjacent ward along with another ex Conservative Councilor. In FPTP, the Tory /Reform split might give this seat to the SNP. Under STV/AV

I am calling this for Reform  

Is the Fraserburgh area still pro-Brexit? The old Banff & Buchan was. Common Fisheries Policy helped drive that. Same for Peterhead. I agree that Reform will win. 

[uthacalthing]

Oct 14, 2024 19:30:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Central Buchan (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
BAILEY, Ian (Liberal Democrat)
CHAPMAN, Peter (Conservative)
CURWEN, Andrew (Reform UK)
REYNOLDS, Phil (Scottish Family Party)
WARD, Dean (Independent)
WILKEN, Sarah (SNP)

2022: Con 871, 679; SNP 744, 705; LD 607; Ind 527; Lab 213; Grn 135; Alba 111; SFP 65
2017: Con 1808; SNP 1188, 486; Ind 863; LD 505

Ian Bailey was the LD candidate for Aberdeenshire North & Moray East (which contains part of this ward, although most is in Gordon and Buchan) at the General Election and he stood in Troup in 2022.

Peter Chapman is a former Cllr for this ward, then list MSP and previously chairman of NFU Scotland and a well know local compere and speaker.  His wife is also a former Cllr for this ward and deputy governer of Peterhead prison. Comfortable Conservative gain 

[uthacalthing]

Oct 14, 2024 19:30:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; Mearns (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
KNIGHTS, Isobel (Liberal Democrat)
LEITH, Claudia (Reform UK)
LINEGAR, William (Green)
SCOTT, Hannah (SNP)
SMITH, Tracey (Conservative)

2022: Con 1217, 619; SNP 1677; Ind 623, 513, 75; LD 377; Lab 336; Grn 194; Alba 99; SFP 52
2017: Con 2034, 461; SNP 901, 700; LD 599; Ind 472; Grn 233; Lab 220

William Linegar contested West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (which contains this ward) at the General election. Claudia Leith (Ref) was the Conservative candidate in Aboyne, Upper Deeside & Donside in 2022.

Current Council: Con 22; SNP 16; Ind 15; LD 14; 3 vacancies

This is a ward that has elected Indys in the past, no Indy candidate this time, but the candidate can make a difference. I dont know any of them, so have no idea if they do, all I am doing is noting caution in predicting the apparently obvious Tory gain 

One of the two Tories elected last time has already defected to Reform. Reform however will not win this seat  

[swanarcadian]

Lol

[phil156]

Scottish wards all on Friday morning and English wards Thursday night

[Chris from Brum]

Here's what andrewteale has to say.

andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-nine-council-by-elections

[andrewp]

As Andrew mentions in his previews, today is the first Inverclyde council by election since June 2009. Inverclyde had been 3rd on the list of authorities with the longest time since a by election behind East Renfrewshire ( Jun 2001) and Portsmouth ( Feb 2008)

In comparison with the other two Scottish councils with by elections today, today is the 9th Moray council by election since there was last one in Inverclyde and the 8th,9th and 10th Aberdeenshire by elections in that time.

[Clark]

Fraserburgh, known locally as 'The Broch'. Even people from Aberdeen have a hard time understanding the local dialect there! Used to have a bit of drug problem but not sure what it's like nowadays. Fraserburgh golf course is the 7th oldest in the world and is excellent. In general, I've found the locals here to be very friendly and good people. It used to be monolithic for the SNP back in Salmond's day.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 31, 2024 6:04:02 GMT sanders said:

Oct 31, 2024 1:46:17 GMT uthacalthing said:

As you can see, a strong Conservative showing and a strong Indy showing, with Indy being a local cipher for Not SNP.  No Indys standing to muddy the water.

Conservatives in local disarray following the Douglas Ross/David Duguid fiasco. SNP in similar disarray, but Alba also in disarray.  

Ross lost by 942 while Reform polled 5562 with a bizarre English/Vegetarian/Republican parachuted in candidate. Duguid would have held comfortably from his hospital bed. 

Conrad Ritchie, Managing Director of Score Group funded Duguids successful campaign (his dad funded mine a decade earlier) and failed to fund Ross's losing one. Now Conrad is funding his own council campaign as the Reform candidate. 

Former Conservative Council leader and Scottish Parliament PPC Mark Findlater has just defected to Reform in the adjacent ward along with another ex Conservative Councilor. In FPTP, the Tory /Reform split might give this seat to the SNP. Under STV/AV

I am calling this for Reform  

Is the Fraserburgh area still pro-Brexit? The old Banff & Buchan was. Common Fisheries Policy helped drive that. Same for Peterhead. I agree that Reform will win. 

I think the fishermen were a little less pro-Brexit once they discovered that catching more fish does not necessarily mean selling more fish.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 7, 2024 8:18:41 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Here's what andrewteale has to say.

andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-nine-council-by-elections

A fine G&S reference in there, andrewteale.

[jimboo2017]

Oct 19, 2024 12:42:30 GMT casualobserver said:

Oct 14, 2024 19:34:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Chris McEleny, Alba Party candidate in Inverclyde, was the first SNP councillor to defect to Alba in 2021, and is General Secretary of the Alba Party.

I expected Alba to be an irrelevance in this by-election. To be honest, I still expect that.

But fair dos to Chris McEleny who’s certainly getting his name out there effectively:

www.greenocktelegraph.co.uk/news/24645422.chris-mceleny-stand-alba-party-gourock-by-election/

uk.news.yahoo.com/gourock-election-candidate-vows-campaign-125242911.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKSbpHVU-VUneMVqYlHNIuBfDlre_Ltvveofb3Csrczlw1x2Nyq-LQqDVrqVYSoL5EWJpiUAjDqyhdMjZZU2e-aBl85abbtxxtjkor2AnCabsTggKuT9_n1RWKvBc1kcjCUFuwMlViFO1A1W_Qd7bGCfpuxz93jjVRiJ7aLs7a2K

www.albaparty.org/sarwar_grilled_in_gourock_over_winter_fuel_payment_cuts

www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cew1q4y5x5eo

x.com/ChrisMcEleny/status/1741218611354652944/photo/1

(Sorry that some may find that pinned promotional photo in the last link a bit creepy in the circumstances)

McEleney's Sellic mindedness and open contempt for the "New Club" annoyed the Strictly No Papes leaning of  the SNP in Inverclyde. His victory over the MoD has led to the judgement that political belief  being a protected characteristic under the Equality Act 2010.

link