observer
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Post by observer on Nov 8, 2024 8:43:50 GMT
Lancashire looks like a hotspot for Reform.
I don't know the state of Reform organisation but, if they organised, watch out for big vote tallies in May.
Wyre, Burnley, Hyndburn and Preston, possibly the Clitheroe division will be the most likely to see Reform victories IF members can organise properly
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Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 8:53:56 GMT
Lancashire looks like a hotspot for Reform. I don't know the state of Reform organisation but, if they organised, watch out for big vote tallies in May. Wyre, Burnley, Hyndburn and Preston, possibly the Clitheroe division will be the most likely to see Reform victories IF members can organise properly I suspect a lot of people who backed Johnson’s Tories in Lancashire in 2019 are now voting Reform here. Anti-establishment parties have done very well in by-elections here since July. One Green gain as well as two Reform now. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 8:56:29 GMT
Herefordshire. Bishops Frome and Cradley
Green 531
Con 215
RefUK 99
LD 27
Lab 12
Turnout 33.2%
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Post by batman on Nov 8, 2024 8:56:47 GMT
That is true but the word Rother has never been used in the name of a Sussex constituency. The Rother Valley Brewery however is in Sussex. There's more to life than beer! disagree |
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Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 8:59:08 GMT
There's more to life than beer! disagree I would agree but I’ve got a bit of middle age spread coming in so trying to cut down! |
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Post by batman on Nov 8, 2024 9:02:32 GMT
Certainly parts of Lancashire have potential for Reform UK, but it is surely going to be variable. As well in the parts of Wyre closest in towards Blackpool (of course Blackpool is not under the jurisdiction of Lancs CC, as with Blackburn & Darwen), there is certainly potential in some parts of east Lancs e.g. certain wards in Burnley, Pendle & Hyndburn, though I don't think Clitheroe is as fertile. Morecambe surely also has potential if Blackpool & surrounds have. However I don't see them doing so well in areas closer to Liverpool (basically West Lancs council area), in Lancaster & surrounds except perhaps to some extent in Skerton, or in the Fylde constituency, or in the more rural parts of Wyre and some other more prosperous parts of the county, and certainly not in the heavily Asian wards in Burnley & Pendle. As sanders says I don't think that Southport is the main catalyst. Blackpool & Morecambe have demography which is not unrelated to that of the Clacton & Great Yarmouth constituencies and the Reform potential in Blackpool in particular was already evident before the multiple murders in Southport.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 9:06:42 GMT
Herefordshire percentages
Green 60.1% (-8.8)
Con 24.3% (-2.9)
RefUK 11.2% ( new)
LD 3.1% (-0.8)
Lab 1.4% (new)
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Nov 8, 2024 9:10:36 GMT
I think Makerfield was Reform's best result in July in the North West - 32%
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observer
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Post by observer on Nov 8, 2024 9:15:03 GMT
Fleetwood would be a simple win for Reform if they can get organised in the town. UKIP used to have at least three councillors there
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Nov 8, 2024 9:20:17 GMT
Sanders didn’t have a senior moment, it was the whippersnapper who didn’t know the difference between Wyre and Wyre Forest, the more senior of us who did. I favour Wyre Forest to be called either Wyre Forest to annoy sanders, or And to annoy Neath West. I used to be very confused by Colne Valley - I couldn't understand why people spoke about it as if it were some far-off northern constituency, when everyone knows the Colne Valley is just outside London... |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 8, 2024 9:22:12 GMT
That is true but the word Rother has never been used in the name of a Sussex constituency. The Rother Valley Brewery however is in Sussex. There's more to life than beer! Is there? |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2024 9:24:39 GMT
Sanders didn’t have a senior moment, it was the whippersnapper who didn’t know the difference between Wyre and Wyre Forest, the more senior of us who did. I favour Wyre Forest to be called either Wyre Forest to annoy sanders, or And to annoy Neath West. Yes speaking as someone genuinely entitled to senior moments, I don't think the above qualifies. More like a schoolboy error  |
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Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 9:31:41 GMT
Sanders didn’t have a senior moment, it was the whippersnapper who didn’t know the difference between Wyre and Wyre Forest, the more senior of us who did. I favour Wyre Forest to be called either Wyre Forest to annoy sanders, or And to annoy Neath West. Yes speaking as someone genuinely entitled to senior moments, I don't think the above qualifies. More like a schoolboy error Easy mistake to make if you hardly ever leave the M25. |
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observer
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Post by observer on Nov 8, 2024 9:50:34 GMT
In Burnley there must be an agreement between Tories and Reform not to stand against each other in May
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 8, 2024 10:19:24 GMT
Herefordshire percentages Green 60.1% (-8.8) Con 24.3% (-2.9) RefUK 11.2% ( new) LD 3.1% (-0.8) Lab 1.4% (new) Another one where the Tory share is down on 2023. They barely increased in Bracknell either, despite a sizeable drop in Labour's score. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Nov 8, 2024 10:24:53 GMT
Tories won’t ever agree to stand down candidates, if the area team get an inkling that any plans are on the cards they’ll take over and find the candidates themselves, or indeed standing themselves to fill the vacancies.
Short of a candidate pulling their nomination papers or someone being stuck in traffic on the way to drop their papers in after 3pm on deadline day…
Local to me, some of the ‘not Wakefield’ bits of Wakefield district ought to be seen as possible targets, ones that have turnouts below 20% and elect Labour councillors by default.
Larger opposition groups, and/or a genuine threat of defeat makes for a better functioning council. Though, of course Barnsley is a well run Labour administration, in comparison with Wakefield, Kirklees & Bradford.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 8, 2024 10:36:56 GMT
Greenock Town hall, the count  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2024 10:44:06 GMT
Blackpool is the 1st Labour gain from the Conservatives in England since the General election, and the 2nd overall after one in Arran in September
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Post by phil156 on Nov 8, 2024 10:56:23 GMT
Bracknell Forest Great Hollands According to the Council webpage Reform got 258 dont know if that alters the percentage figure |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Nov 8, 2024 11:13:49 GMT
Great Hollands, Bracknell Forest
If the result reported on the Bracknell Forest Council website is the correct one.
Lab 681 44.6%
Con 411 26.9%
Rfm 258 16.9%
Ind 158 10.3%
Hrg 20 1.3%
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