Local Council by-elections 7th November 2024

[No Offence Alan]

Just to let you know that the Scottish Lib Dems have been targeting the by-elections in Mearns and in Elgin.
Could be good news for iainbhx in the prediction competition.

[batman]

Elgin surprises me, Mearns much less so. They have of course several times had MPs in the latter area in the last generation or so.

[greyfriar]

Nov 7, 2024 8:18:41 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Here's what andrewteale has to say.

andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-nine-council-by-elections

Afraid andrewteale is wrong about the political leadership of Moray Council, it is a minority Conservative administration - not SNP since 2022.

[greyfriar]

Nov 7, 2024 22:41:54 GMT batman said:

Elgin surprises me, Mearns much less so. They have of course several times had MPs in the latter area in the last generation or so.

Elgin need not surprise - there is zero chance their candidate will be anything but fourth.

[olympian95]

Lab gain in Blackpool

[noorderling]

With 31,55% of the vote, with Reform on 30.7.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BLACKPOOL Bispham

Joel McKevitt (Labour Party) 436
William Thomas Banks (Reform UK) 424
Lynda Watson (The Conservative Party candidate) 314
Rick Scott (Independent) 148
Ben Thomas (Green Party) 36
Kevan Michael Benfold (Liberal Democrats) 24

[notabrummie]

Nov 8, 2024 0:00:55 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

BLACKPOOL Bispham

Joel McKevitt (Labour Party) 436
William Thomas Banks (Reform UK) 424
Lynda Watson (The Conservative Party candidate) 314
Rick Scott (Independent) 148
Ben Thomas (Green Party) 36
Kevan Michael Benfold (Liberal Democrats) 24

I had that as a Reform gain.
7 people robbed me of a tenner. Grrr!

[batman]

Bispham is a perenially Tory ward although very occasionally it has been known to be won by Labour in truly outstanding years. It's a truly awful result for the Tories. Reform UK will try & squeeze their vote to win the ward, but not sure that they can get it that much lower. It's not an outstanding vote share for Labour, but we will obviously take this.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

WYRE Marsh Mill

CRAWFORD, James (Reform UK) 567
BALLARD, Howard John (The Conservative Party Candidate) 449
MASON, James Matthew (Labour Party) 400
MONTAGUE, Caroline Elizabeth (Green Party) 52

Turnout: 30.28%

[andrewp]

Nov 8, 2024 0:08:33 GMT batman said:

Bispham is a perenially Tory ward although very occasionally it has been known to be won by Labour in truly outstanding years. It's a truly awful result for the Tories. Reform UK will try & squeeze their vote to win the ward, but not sure that they can get it that much lower. It's not an outstanding vote share for Labour, but we will obviously take this.

The Indy was ex Tory councillor so having 3 candidates from the right was ideal for Labour.

[andrewp]

Blackpool percentages

LAB: 31.5% (-16.5)
RefUK 30.7% (New)
CON: 22.7% (-29.2)
IND: 10.7% (New)
GRN: 2.6% (New)
LD 1.7% (New)

[andrewp]

Wyre, Marsh Mill

RefUK 38.6% (New)
Con 30.6% (-27.2)
Lab : 27.2% (-15.0)
Green :3.5% (New)

[greenman]

Looks like Reform peeled of more votes from Conservative than off labour.

[andrewp]

Bracknell is a Labour hold

[andrewp]

The Conservatives obviously need to go back to having no leader!

Although Scotland may help them redress this week’s balance

[redvers]

LAB hold in Great Hollands, Bracknell Forest

Lab: 681 (46.1%) -27.8% from 2023
Con: 411 (27.8%) +1.7%
Reform: 208 (14.1%)
Ind (former Tory councillor): 158 (10.7%)
Heritage: 20 (1.4%)

Reform, Ind, Heritage did not stand in 2023

Swing from Lab to Con, 14.75%

Turnout 22.31%, down from 33% in 2023

[phil156]

Last time we didn't get Herefordshire to in the morning if I remember

[swanarcadian]

Nov 8, 2024 0:28:55 GMT phil156 said:

Last time we didn't get Herefordshire to in the morning if I remember

If so, that’s it for tonight. Just as well; it’s been dreadful. Lets see what happens in STV land later; at least they can find a way round all the vote splitting.

[carlton43]

Nov 8, 2024 0:12:13 GMT andrewp said:

Blackpool percentages

LAB: 31.5% (-16.5)
RefUK 30.7% (New)
CON: 22.7% (-29.2)
IND: 10.7% (New)
GRN: 2.6% (New)
LD 1.7% (New)

Ostensibly that looks to be a major collapse of the Conservative vote towards Reform.  Obviously there will be elements of churn, withdrawal to non-voting, and of non-voters turning out for Reform.  It has been a very good night for Reform and a worrying and disappointing one for the Conservatives.

A few more rounds like this and a bit of judicious local polling might put a more effective bite on the declining Conservative vote to enable more of a breakout into clearly established wins where our offer is much more to the taste of that demographic.  

But tonight there is evidence of real movement in our favour and the shape of things to come.  This could get very difficult indeed for the Conservatives in many areas away from the south.