|
|
Post by edgbaston on Oct 18, 2024 12:05:04 GMT
I'm sure that it has been discussed on here before, but what changed in Holme Valley South in recent years to make it a Labour prospect when it had previously been pretty safe Tory even in poor years for them like 2012 - edgbaston? That and the Eltham seat were very low hanging fruit for the Tories this week, the gains in Swindon and St Albans were more impressive. Haha well it was actually one Thelma Walker who revived the local party there when she stood in the ward, she didn’t win put paved the way for subsequent gains. Holme Valley South is an area that increasingly became safe Tory as it became more middle class, leaving its radical routes behind, those forces then reversed on the Tories post brexit as demographics realigned to favour Labour. Perhaps now Labour are in government it’s ’back to normal’ What I’d say about the result in this by election is that Holmfirth is still quite elderly, and my sense is that elderly people hate our guts over a couple of issues at the moment. |
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Oct 18, 2024 12:13:46 GMT
Also local politics do matter! Kirklees council is an utter shit show at the moment and it’s hard not to say it’s squarely Labour’s fault (as the issues aren’t primarily financial but factional)
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Oct 18, 2024 13:25:42 GMT
Simulating the Falkirk South result as a 3-seat ordinary election gives SNP/Lab/C, which is no change from 2022 or 2017.  |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Oct 18, 2024 14:10:19 GMT
With regard to Harpenden, the Lib Dems do seem to have some problems across St Albans, Dacorum and Three Rivers that go beyond the National Tory recovery and them running the councils there. Not sure if all the issues are linked or not. I don't know anything about three rivers or dacorum. But the lib Dems in St Alban's have run into the normal hot stuff councils do run into. It's worth remembering as well that harpenden isn't natural lib dem territory. It's a history of lib dem councillors but it's history is mostly Tory |
|
|
|
Post by philvn on Oct 18, 2024 14:19:17 GMT
I think incredibly polarised is pushing it a bit - within the constituency, the seats Labour don't hold, they aren't far behind - even in the 3 Rural wards (North East, South & West), Labour polls well, though on the old ward boundaries, the Tories used to do significantly better. The area is, as with everywhere, changing. It's changed now since the 80s. It's become less polarised I think. Labour winning Ormskirk fairly easily nowadays. Plus places like Upholland voting Labour. It has no Tory-trending areas whatsoever. Even the rural areas are anti-Tory. Yes, I think you're largely right. It of course has gone hand in hand with the 'Scouseification' of much of West Lancs. I'm only 36, but growing up in Ormskirk, Lancashire accents were all around. On my last visit in the summer, Liverpool accents now dominate. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 18, 2024 15:18:43 GMT
Again not such a low score for Labour despite all the losses. This confirms my impression that their results in the past couple of weeks haven't actually been as bad for them as the previous few rounds of byelections were - when their support seemed to suddenly fall off a cliff. Holding that Ashford seat might arguably have been our best result since the GE, if we had just managed a handful more votes..... At present the vibes I'm getting are the electorate are getting ready to give Labour a 5 point win and a much more modest majority. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 18, 2024 15:22:28 GMT
It's changed now since the 80s. It's become less polarised I think. Labour winning Ormskirk fairly easily nowadays. Plus places like Upholland voting Labour. It has no Tory-trending areas whatsoever. Even the rural areas are anti-Tory. Yes, I think you're largely right. It of course has gone hand in hand with the 'Scouseification' of much of West Lancs. I'm only 36, but growing up in Ormskirk, Lancashire accents were all around. On my last visit in the summer, Liverpool accents now dominate. Similar story with Tamworth / Lichfield where my family (except my sub-branch). The older generation and my (36) elder cousin (39) have an accent that sounds much like Derby (they say duck for a start). My much younger cousins, 14 and 24 sound brummie. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,419
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Oct 18, 2024 15:56:29 GMT
Again not such a low score for Labour despite all the losses. This confirms my impression that their results in the past couple of weeks haven't actually been as bad for them as the previous few rounds of byelections were - when their support seemed to suddenly fall off a cliff. Holding that Ashford seat might arguably have been our best result since the GE, if we had just managed a handful more votes..... At present the vibes I'm getting are the electorate are getting ready to give Labour a 5 point win and a much more modest majority. It's nearly five years.... |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Oct 18, 2024 16:37:41 GMT
We lived in one of the small villages which make up Holme Valley South from August 1979 until January 1982. I recall Labour gained a seat from the Conservatives most probably in 1981 for the then Metropolitan County elections. I return probably briefly from an extended sabbatical as I am interested on how Reform is performing, principally in Labour held seats. Last night of the 16 seats being contested Labour defended 8 with Reform standing in 6; the only other Reform candidate was in Ceredigion: Tirymynach where they secured 25 votes and a 4.3% share. There were two elections in Labour held seats where there was no Reform candidate: * Cumberland: Keswick where Labour retained the seat but where there was a 19.6% swing from Labour to Conservative since 2022 * Swindon: Rodbourne Cheney where the Conservatives gained the seat on a 17.7% swing since earlier this year. Five of the remaining Labour defences were in England. The analysis below shows the actual results and swings (based on average vote where applicable) along with an assessment IF all the Reform votes were transferred to the Conservative - I know, I know - but please continue reading. | Election | Result | Swing | Reform share | Revised result | Revised swing |
| | Ashford: Aylesford & East Stour (2023) | Green Gain | 1.8% Lab to Green | 22.9% | Conservative gain | 10.4% Lab to Con |
| | Bexley: Belvedere (2022) | Labour Hold | 8.0% Lab to Con | 16.9% | Conservative gain | 16.4% Lab to Con |
| | Greenwich: Eltham Town & Averley Hill (2022) | Conservative gain | 10.8% Lab to Con | 9.3% | Conservative gain | 15.0% Lab to Con |
| | Kirklees: Holme Valley South (2024) | Conservative gain | 8.1% Lab to Con | 12.2% | Conservative gain | 14.2% Lab to Con |
| | North Hertfordshire: Royston Palace (2024) | Labour hold | 7.2% Lab to LD | 16.8% | Conservative gain | 14.5% Lab to Con |
|
* The swings where Reform stood were generally significantly lower than where they did not. * A good chance Reform saved Labour the seats in both Belvedere and Royston Palace and conceivably even Aylesford & East Stour from going Conservative . * Even if all the Reform votes had gone to the Conservatives this would result in swings around the mid teens - these would still be a little lower than the swings in the Labour defended seats Reform did not contest. Not a lot can be said about Falkirk South (2022) apart from the 14.7% first prefence Conservative share and the 9.9% for Reform would not have had an impact on the actual result. This is just one week, let us see how things pan out in the coming weeks. |
|
|
|
Post by listener on Oct 18, 2024 17:26:20 GMT
Middle Englander - how nice to see you back here - and as always your contribution is very insightful.
Please stay with us.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 18, 2024 19:03:32 GMT
We lived in one of the small villages which make up Holme Valley South from August 1979 until January 1982. I recall Labour gained a seat from the Conservatives most probably in 1981 for the then Metropolitan County elections. I return probably briefly from an extended sabbatical as I am interested on how Reform is performing, principally in Labour held seats. Last night of the 16 seats being contested Labour defended 8 with Reform standing in 6; the only other Reform candidate was in Ceredigion: Tirymynach where they secured 25 votes and a 4.3% share. There were two elections in Labour held seats where there was no Reform candidate: * Cumberland: Keswick where Labour retained the seat but where there was a 19.6% swing from Labour to Conservative since 2022 * Swindon: Rodbourne Cheney where the Conservatives gained the seat on a 17.7% swing since earlier this year. Five of the remaining Labour defences were in England. The analysis below shows the actual results and swings (based on average vote where applicable) along with an assessment IF all the Reform votes were transferred to the Conservative - I know, I know - but please continue reading. | Election | Result | Swing | Reform share | Revised result | Revised swing |
| | Ashford: Aylesford & East Stour (2023) | Green Gain | 1.8% Lab to Green | 22.9% | Conservative gain | 10.4% Lab to Con |
| | Bexley: Belvedere (2022) | Labour Hold | 8.0% Lab to Con | 16.9% | Conservative gain | 16.4% Lab to Con |
| | Greenwich: Eltham Town & Averley Hill (2022) | Conservative gain | 10.8% Lab to Con | 9.3% | Conservative gain | 15.0% Lab to Con |
| | Kirklees: Holme Valley South (2024) | Conservative gain | 8.1% Lab to Con | 12.2% | Conservative gain | 14.2% Lab to Con |
| | North Hertfordshire: Royston Palace (2024) | Labour hold | 7.2% Lab to LD | 16.8% | Conservative gain | 14.5% Lab to Con |
|
* The swings where Reform stood were generally significantly lower than where they did not. * A good chance Reform saved Labour the seats in both Belvedere and Royston Palace and conceivably even Aylesford & East Stour from going Conservative . * Even if all the Reform votes had gone to the Conservatives this would result in swings around the mid teens - these would still be a little lower than the swings in the Labour defended seats Reform did not contest. Not a lot can be said about Falkirk South (2022) apart from the 14.7% first prefence Conservative share and the 9.9% for Reform would not have had an impact on the actual result. This is just one week, let us see how things pan out in the coming weeks. Good to see you back posting. The thing I would point out about Falkirk South is that only just over a third of the Reform vote went to the Tories on transfers and 8% went to Labour. If you apply that elsewhere, only Royston Palace switches with no Reform candidate. Now obviously the Reform vote in some places will favour the Tories more than in others, but it is perhaps indicative of the dangers of assumptions. It strikes me that, for example, in Ashford Reform seem to have captured a lot of the previous Ashford Independent vote, which was anti-establishment and perhaps less likely to have gone Tory in the absence of a Reform candidate. The last few weeks do however clearly suggest that the Tories do less well when Reform stand. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Oct 18, 2024 19:42:16 GMT
I drive through Holmfirth twice a week, poster boards regularly have been up with the general, locals and by election. Weirdly didn't see any Tory posters this time
|
|
swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,654
Member is Online
|
Post by swanarcadian on Oct 18, 2024 20:46:22 GMT
I'm sure that it has been discussed on here before, but what changed in Holme Valley South in recent years to make it a Labour prospect when it had previously been pretty safe Tory even in poor years for them like 2012 - edgbaston ? That and the Eltham seat were very low hanging fruit for the Tories this week, the gains in Swindon and St Albans were more impressive. What I’d say about the result in this by election is that Holmfirth is still quite elderly, and my sense is that elderly people hate our guts over a couple of issues at the moment.
 |
|
swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,654
Member is Online
|
Post by swanarcadian on Oct 18, 2024 20:48:27 GMT
I drive through Holmfirth twice a week, poster boards regularly have been up with the general, locals and by election. Weirdly didn't see any Tory posters this time Tory supporters in general don't really do posters. I don't believe I've ever been anywhere where our posters haven't been outnumbered by Labour or Lib Dem ones, depending on the ward I'm in. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Oct 18, 2024 20:56:07 GMT
I drive through Holmfirth twice a week, poster boards regularly have been up with the general, locals and by election. Weirdly didn't see any Tory posters this time Tory supporters in general don't really do posters. I don't believe I've ever been anywhere where our posters haven't been outnumbered by Labour or Lib Dem ones, depending on the ward I'm in. to clarify in West Yorkshire posters aren't in windows or gardens but lamp posts. In the general I think I saw Tory posters before I saw labour but I might be misremembering |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Oct 18, 2024 21:06:55 GMT
I drive through Holmfirth twice a week, poster boards regularly have been up with the general, locals and by election. Weirdly didn't see any Tory posters this time Tory supporters in general don't really do posters. I don't believe I've ever been anywhere where our posters haven't been outnumbered by Labour or Lib Dem ones, depending on the ward I'm in. We used to until c.mid 80s. Our posters greatly outnumbered Labour from 73 (locals) to 83 although plenty of Liberal posters in the Colne Valley and neighbouring seats for 73/74. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 19, 2024 8:42:42 GMT
We lived in one of the small villages which make up Holme Valley South from August 1979 until January 1982. I recall Labour gained a seat from the Conservatives most probably in 1981 for the then Metropolitan County elections. I return probably briefly from an extended sabbatical as I am interested on how Reform is performing, principally in Labour held seats. Last night of the 16 seats being contested Labour defended 8 with Reform standing in 6; the only other Reform candidate was in Ceredigion: Tirymynach where they secured 25 votes and a 4.3% share. There were two elections in Labour held seats where there was no Reform candidate: * Cumberland: Keswick where Labour retained the seat but where there was a 19.6% swing from Labour to Conservative since 2022 * Swindon: Rodbourne Cheney where the Conservatives gained the seat on a 17.7% swing since earlier this year. Five of the remaining Labour defences were in England. The analysis below shows the actual results and swings (based on average vote where applicable) along with an assessment IF all the Reform votes were transferred to the Conservative - I know, I know - but please continue reading. | Election | Result | Swing | Reform share | Revised result | Revised swing |
| | Ashford: Aylesford & East Stour (2023) | Green Gain | 1.8% Lab to Green | 22.9% | Conservative gain | 10.4% Lab to Con |
| | Bexley: Belvedere (2022) | Labour Hold | 8.0% Lab to Con | 16.9% | Conservative gain | 16.4% Lab to Con |
| | Greenwich: Eltham Town & Averley Hill (2022) | Conservative gain | 10.8% Lab to Con | 9.3% | Conservative gain | 15.0% Lab to Con |
| | Kirklees: Holme Valley South (2024) | Conservative gain | 8.1% Lab to Con | 12.2% | Conservative gain | 14.2% Lab to Con |
| | North Hertfordshire: Royston Palace (2024) | Labour hold | 7.2% Lab to LD | 16.8% | Conservative gain | 14.5% Lab to Con |
|
* The swings where Reform stood were generally significantly lower than where they did not. * A good chance Reform saved Labour the seats in both Belvedere and Royston Palace and conceivably even Aylesford & East Stour from going Conservative . * Even if all the Reform votes had gone to the Conservatives this would result in swings around the mid teens - these would still be a little lower than the swings in the Labour defended seats Reform did not contest. Not a lot can be said about Falkirk South (2022) apart from the 14.7% first prefence Conservative share and the 9.9% for Reform would not have had an impact on the actual result. This is just one week, let us see how things pan out in the coming weeks. as one voice from the past to another such... Lovely to hear from you,and very interesting but I think very wrong! I think that Reform ,sadly from my point of view, will tap into votes which would never remotely ever vote Tory, and adding Reform votes to Tory ones to get a right wing majority is fundamentally flawed. Certainly taking the Ashford example, one which produced a big Reform vote, as the example I know most about and which I gave my take in an earlier post. In my day as LibDem campaign manager it was an area overwhelmingly LD voting but it was more anti-establisnment than really Liberal and the predecessor ward covering much of this area was the self styled True Liberal who was actually a LD member but an opponent of the LD group. He later founded the Ashford Independent group who now long after his death are leading the current Ashford administration. The AIs did not stand in the recent by-election and their votes by and large went to Reform. Those votes would never remotely have gone to the Conservatives- they were probably more anti-Conservative than anything else. If there hadn't been a Reform candidate then I guess they would have split in all directions, probably most non-voting , but I am pretty sure only a handful would have gone Tory. They were probably supposed to go to the Green who are the junior partners in the coalition, and enough did to win it for the Greens, but only just. One other thought. The other dominant force in that area in my day was George Koowaree, among other things long the County Councillor for that division. George, a black mental health nurse, had a huge personal following. He was a Liberal Democrat. It was interesting that the last borough councillor for this ward , and now Ashford MP is a black mental health nurse.He was Labour of course. The Labour vote remained strong enough here nearly to hold the seat, but not quite. I suspect the Labour vote here may now slip away, but I would be absolutely astonished if it turned to the Conservatives. Unless of course they could find a black mental health nurse... |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Oct 19, 2024 10:08:03 GMT
I'm sure that it has been discussed on here before, but what changed in Holme Valley South in recent years to make it a Labour prospect when it had previously been pretty safe Tory even in poor years for them like 2012 - edgbaston ? That and the Eltham seat were very low hanging fruit for the Tories this week, the gains in Swindon and St Albans were more impressive. I have a ( Labour voting) cousin who lives in Holmfirth and I would say it does have a little bit of alternativeness about it, but not as much as eg Heiden Bridge I think there has been a bit of movement to Labour, and it’s quite popular with young professionals, but maybe not that much as Labour won HVS in 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998. In say 1983 it was Con 35%, Lib 35% Lab 30%, so it hasn’t always been a pretty safe Tory seat. I would characterise it as a usually Tory ward that Lab can win in good years. In the 1980s there was quite a good Liberal vote here which has somewhat disappeared. If you want to compare with Hebden Bridge, next week we have a by-election in the real thing. I do think there are some similarities, but I'd be very surprised if the Tories won that (though not if the Greens did) and I wasn't surprised by this result. |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
|
Post by right on Oct 19, 2024 18:10:30 GMT
This popped up on my YouTube feed, again from Michael Heaver
It's much harder for him to maintain the idea that when Reform stand then the Tories lose, so he's concentrating on the fall in the Labour vote
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Oct 19, 2024 23:59:25 GMT
There is an old adage that I thought about before posting re Ashfield: Aylesford & East Stour: "The exception that proves the rule".
|
|
