Local Council by-elections 17th October 2024

[yellowperil]

Oct 18, 2024 4:19:00 GMT batman said:

The Ashford result is really bad for the Tories. They were not likely to win but they should have done better than that. Their best results are Swindon, Greenwich and Kirklees to a slightly lesser extent. It might be fair to argue that they should never have lost in Harpenden in the first place but they will be pleased to win nonetheless.

Ashford: in that ward, which has always been more anti-establishment than anything, the Tories were most unlikely to advance much, but I'm not surprised Reform did pretty well. Green only just managed to hold on with the AIs standing aside, but inthat context the Green candidate was defending the rather mixed performance of the AI /Green minority coalition administration - so the Greens were the establishment, sort of.

[andrewp]

I don’t think we’ve had the actual Ashford numbers

Green: 299
Lab: 293
RefUK: 216
Con: 111
LD: 26

[andrewp]

Grange and Cartmel percentages

LD 84.8% (+7.6)
CON: 15.2% (-3.5)

No TUSC (-4.1) as previous.

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 5:46:05 GMT andrewp said:

Grange and Cartmel percentages

LD 84.8% (+7.6)
CON: 15.2% (-3.5)

No TUSC (-4.1) as previous.

Good grief - predicted a Tory gain. Assad margins right there, blooming heck. 

[batman]

We know how strong the LDs are most of the time in Farron’s seat. The Tories have been underperforming seriously for about 20 years. The poor reputation of the last Tory MP, Tim Collins, was one factor but Farron and his local colleagues do consistently well and that isn’t just a fluke. They also keep Labour ruthlessly squeezed.

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 7:28:42 GMT batman said:

We know how strong the LDs are most of the time in Farron’s seat. The Tories have been underperforming seriously for about 20 years. The poor reputation of the last Tory MP, Tim Collins, was one factor but Farron and his local colleagues do consistently well and that isn’t just a fluke. They also keep Labour ruthlessly squeezed.

Tories got 80% in a Stoke-on-Trent ward as I recall. Before that, Knightsbridge & Belgravia saw them get 80% at some point. I've seen Labour getting 80% too.  

[batman]

In a contest with only 2 candidates there will always the scope for a lopsided result like that given the right circumstances.

[Clark]

I'm sure Labour got 95% once in Featherstone in the mid 90's in a 2 way contest. They also polled around 85% / 90% in Castleford around that time in 3 way contests.

[Merseymike]

Oct 18, 2024 7:40:46 GMT sanders said:

Oct 18, 2024 7:28:42 GMT batman said:

We know how strong the LDs are most of the time in Farron’s seat. The Tories have been underperforming seriously for about 20 years. The poor reputation of the last Tory MP, Tim Collins, was one factor but Farron and his local colleagues do consistently well and that isn’t just a fluke. They also keep Labour ruthlessly squeezed.

Tories got 80% in a Stoke-on-Trent ward as I recall. Before that, Knightsbridge & Belgravia saw them get 80% at some point. I've seen Labour getting 80% too.  

Bootle council seats have had 80+ - North Korea votes!

Just thinking though. At the moment Labour sounds grumpy, some Tories will vote more (again) but by-elections are mostly 20-30%. People just won't bother.

[timmullen]

Oct 18, 2024 7:46:17 GMT batman said:

In a contest with only 2 candidates there will always the scope for a lopsided result like that given the right circumstances.

Yes, for a number of cycles Meir Park was a head-to-head between Abi Brown, until last Conservative group leader, and our paper candidate where from memory Abi would be hovering around 80%.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 18, 2024 7:28:42 GMT batman said:

We know how strong the LDs are most of the time in Farron’s seat. The Tories have been underperforming seriously for about 20 years. The poor reputation of the last Tory MP, Tim Collins, was one factor but Farron and his local colleagues do consistently well and that isn’t just a fluke. They also keep Labour ruthlessly squeezed.

Although it's not difficult to squeeze a party without a candidate in this case.

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 7:59:16 GMT Merseymike said:

Oct 18, 2024 7:40:46 GMT sanders said:

Tories got 80% in a Stoke-on-Trent ward as I recall. Before that, Knightsbridge & Belgravia saw them get 80% at some point. I've seen Labour getting 80% too.  

Bootle council seats have had 80+ - North Korea votes!

Just thinking though. At the moment Labour sounds grumpy, some Tories will vote more (again) but by-elections are mostly 20-30%. People just won't bother.

Yes that came to mind, actually. I think Paul Nuttall once stood in a Bottle ward - Derby? He did quite well I believe. 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Some Labour seats in Skelmersdale have seen 90%+ Labour votes.

[Tony Otim]

Knowsley's another place where Labour regularly get 85-90% as it's often Lab vs one other and that other is sometimes TUSC. Can produce some dramatic turn around- they got 86% vs Con in St Gabriel's in 2019, then lost a seat in the ward to the Greens at the next election.

[Tony Otim]

With regard to Harpenden, the Lib Dems do seem to have some problems across St Albans, Dacorum and Three Rivers that go beyond the National Tory recovery and them running the councils there. Not sure if all the issues are linked or not.

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 8:06:21 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Some Labour seats in Skelmersdale have seen 90%+ Labour votes.

Hard to believe it was ever in a Tory seat (West Lancashire). Lots of cheap houses in Skelmersdale. 

[certain]

Oct 18, 2024 0:21:43 GMT john07 said:

Oct 18, 2024 0:01:02 GMT maxque said:

Scotland uses STV, so, yes.

Well it is AV for single member divisions.

I am surprised that only the initial count was quoted. That is why I queried the result.

The stupid computerised counting system only includes the first preferences in the declaration. And the declared counting stage of election is usually wrong. The final result is so obscured that very few people get to know what it was.

[John Chanin]

Oct 18, 2024 8:07:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

Knowsley's another place where Labour regularly get 85-90% as it's often Lab vs one other and that other is sometimes TUSC. Can produce some dramatic turn around- they got 86% vs Con in St Gabriel's in 2019, then lost a seat in the ward to the Greens at the next election.

Birmingham Alum Rock 2018 
2 member ward. All 3 parties with 2 candidates.

Labour        91.1%
Liberal          4.7%
Conservative 4.2%

Not a small ward or a low turnout. The Labour candidates both got more than 4500 votes.

[The Bishop]

But the remarkable thing about the Cartmel result is that it was a safely Tory seat not *that* long ago, even when the LibDems were already doing well elsewhere locally.

As for the outcome in Keswick, the 2022 margin was never a realistic portrayal of underlying strength there (as opposed to the popularity of the winning candidate and now MP) but it has been moving steadily towards Labour in recent years and the still fairly comfortable hold confirms that. Though it is maybe a bit surprising that the Greens didn't do a bit better - like Ulverston (which has already elected a Green councillor) elsewhere in the area, its the sort of place that has some potential for them.

[andrewteale]

Oct 18, 2024 8:16:29 GMT sanders said:

Oct 18, 2024 8:06:21 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Some Labour seats in Skelmersdale have seen 90%+ Labour votes.

Hard to believe it was ever in a Tory seat (West Lancashire). Lots of cheap houses in Skelmersdale. 

West Lancs is incredibly polarised between Skem and not Skem. The Conservatives can run up 70 or 80% in some of the village wards in a good year.