Local Council by-elections 17th October 2024

[The Bishop]

I'm sure that it has been discussed on here before, but what changed in Holme Valley South in recent years to make it a Labour prospect when it had previously been pretty safe Tory even in poor years for them like 2012 - edgbaston?

That and the Eltham seat were very low hanging fruit for the Tories this week, the gains in Swindon and St Albans were more impressive.

[andrewp]

Oct 18, 2024 9:38:43 GMT The Bishop said:

I'm sure that it has been discussed on here before, but what changed in Holme Valley South in recent years to make it a Labour prospect when it had previously been pretty safe Tory even in poor years for them like 2012 - edgbaston ?

That and the Eltham seat were very low hanging fruit for the Tories this week, the gains in Swindon and St Albans were more impressive.

I have a ( Labour voting) cousin who lives in Holmfirth and I would say it does have a little bit of alternativeness about it, but not as much as eg Heiden Bridge 

I think there has been a bit of movement  to Labour, and it’s quite popular with young professionals, but maybe not that much as Labour won HVS in 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998.

In say 1983 it was Con 35%, Lib 35% Lab 30%, so it hasn’t always been a pretty safe Tory seat. I would  characterise it as a usually Tory ward that Lab can win in good years. In the 1980s there was quite a good Liberal vote here which has somewhat disappeared.

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 18, 2024 9:33:39 GMT andrewteale said:

Oct 18, 2024 8:16:29 GMT sanders said:

Hard to believe it was ever in a Tory seat (West Lancashire). Lots of cheap houses in Skelmersdale. 

West Lancs is incredibly polarised between Skem and not Skem. The Conservatives can run up 70 or 80% in some of the village wards in a good year.

I think incredibly polarised is pushing it a bit - within the constituency, the seats Labour don't hold, they aren't far behind - even in the 3 Rural wards (North East, South & West), Labour polls well, though on the old ward boundaries, the Tories used to do significantly better. The area is, as with everywhere, changing.

[batman]

Oct 18, 2024 9:33:39 GMT andrewteale said:

Oct 18, 2024 8:16:29 GMT sanders said:

Hard to believe it was ever in a Tory seat (West Lancashire). Lots of cheap houses in Skelmersdale. 

West Lancs is incredibly polarised between Skem and not Skem. The Conservatives can run up 70 or 80% in some of the village wards in a good year.

with Ormskirk being the sort of middle ground town. It was capable of voting Conservative until quite recently, but not usually by much.

[The Bishop]

Oct 18, 2024 9:52:30 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 18, 2024 9:38:43 GMT The Bishop said:

I'm sure that it has been discussed on here before, but what changed in Holme Valley South in recent years to make it a Labour prospect when it had previously been pretty safe Tory even in poor years for them like 2012 - edgbaston ?

That and the Eltham seat were very low hanging fruit for the Tories this week, the gains in Swindon and St Albans were more impressive.

I have a ( Labour voting) cousin who lives in Holmfirth and I would say it does have a little bit of alternativeness about it, but not as much as eg Heiden Bridge 

I think there has been a bit of movement  to Labour, and it’s quite popular with young professionals, but maybe not that much as Labour won HVS in 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998.

In say 1983 it was Con 35%, Lib 35% Lab 30%, so it hasn’t always been a pretty safe Tory seat. I would  characterise it as a usually Tory ward that Lab can win in good years. In the 1980s there was quite a good Liberal vote here which has somewhat disappeared.

I knew that Labour won it in the 1990s, but not since then until 2019. Which is surely quite notable.

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 9:58:37 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Oct 18, 2024 9:33:39 GMT andrewteale said:

West Lancs is incredibly polarised between Skem and not Skem. The Conservatives can run up 70 or 80% in some of the village wards in a good year.

I think incredibly polarised is pushing it a bit - within the constituency, the seats Labour don't hold, they aren't far behind - even in the 3 Rural wards (North East, South & West), Labour polls well, though on the old ward boundaries, the Tories used to do significantly better. The area is, as with everywhere, changing.

It's changed now since the 80s. It's become less polarised I think. Labour winning Ormskirk fairly easily nowadays. Plus places like Upholland voting Labour. It has no Tory-trending areas whatsoever. Even the rural areas are anti-Tory. 

[johnloony]

Oct 17, 2024 22:22:57 GMT timmullen said:

I’m fascinated that Norah Barry’s house is now a B&B, I was at college with one of the daughters of the family who lived there in 1981-82; they were paid £50 per series as only the front doorstep was used, and the BBC used to fit their own front door. andrewteale mentioned the ascent of Holme Moss - returning from my grandmother’s funeral in Leeds my dad steered our trusty 1976 model Hilman Avenger up and down t’other side in a humongous snow storm, closely followed by a police Land Rover who was closing the road behind us; at the bottom the police flashed their blue light and when dad had pulled over the two officers came to his door, shook his hand and congratulated him.

Do you mean Nora Batty?

[timmullen]

Oct 18, 2024 10:14:26 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 17, 2024 22:22:57 GMT timmullen said:

I’m fascinated that Norah Barry’s house is now a B&B, I was at college with one of the daughters of the family who lived there in 1981-82; they were paid £50 per series as only the front doorstep was used, and the BBC used to fit their own front door. andrewteale mentioned the ascent of Holme Moss - returning from my grandmother’s funeral in Leeds my dad steered our trusty 1976 model Hilman Avenger up and down t’other side in a humongous snow storm, closely followed by a police Land Rover who was closing the road behind us; at the bottom the police flashed their blue light and when dad had pulled over the two officers came to his door, shook his hand and congratulated him.

Do you mean Nora Batty?

Sorry, didn’t check autocorrect before posting.

[Tony Otim]

Falkirk - transfers:

Stage 2 (exclusion of LD)
Lab 34 (1048)
NT 34 (34)
Ind 15 (199)
Ref 11 (341)
Grn 10 (161)
Con 10 (498)
SNP 5 (1048)

Stage 3 (exclusion of Grn)
SNP 65 (1113)
Lab 42 (1090)
NT 30 (64)
Ind 17 (216)
Con 5 (503)
Ref 2 (343)


Stage 4 (exclusion of ind)
NT 82 (146)
SNP 43 (1156)
Lab 42 (1132)
Ref 28 (371)
Con 21 (524)


Stage 5 (exclusion of Reform)
NT 181 (327)
Con 128 (652)
SNP 33 (1189)
Lab 29 (1161)

Stage 6 (exclusion of Con)
NT 455 (782)
Lab 168 (1329)
SNP 29 (1218)

[michaelarden]

Oct 18, 2024 10:29:36 GMT Tony Otim said:

Falkirk - transfers:

Stage 2 (exclusion of LD)
Lab 34 (1048)
NT 34 (34)
Ind 15 (199)
Ref 11 (341)
Grn 10 (161)
Con 10 (498)
SNP 5 (1048)

Stage 3 (exclusion of Grn)
SNP 65 (1113)
Lab 42 (1090)
NT 30 (64)
Ind 17 (216)
Con 5 (503)
Ref 2 (343)


Stage 4 (exclusion of ind)
NT 82 (146)
SNP 43 (1156)
Lab 42 (1132)
Ref 28 (371)
Con 21 (524)


Stage 5 (exclusion of Reform)
NT 181 (327)
Con 128 (652)
SNP 33 (1189)
Lab 29 (1161)

Stage 6 (exclusion of Con)
NT 455 (782)
Lab 168 (1329)
SNP 29 (1218)

Interesting to see more Reform transfers to SNP than Labour (though not by much) - and the highest number not transferring - may make the Aberdeenshire contests more interesting.

[The Bishop]

Reform breaking slightly for SNP over Labour (though of course many more went Tory) is maybe a bit surprising - has this been seen in previous Scottish byelections?

[certain]

The Falkirk byelection report in The Herald give no figures at all other than the turnout. It just says it was "close run".

[olympian95]

Ascot is a Tory hold

[Tony Otim]

Oct 18, 2024 11:01:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Reform breaking slightly for SNP over Labour (though of course many more went Tory) is maybe a bit surprising - has this been seen in previous Scottish byelections?

I don't think so, but not much data to go on yet.

I think there were more votes transferring this week than last week, but I think the main trend is a decline in Labour's transfer friendliness (not surprising), I'm not sure there's enough evidence yet to suggest an upturn in the SNP's transfer friendliness and the Conservatives remain pretty transfer unfriendly (even numbers from Reform are relatively low and should be a note of caution to those assuming votes lost on 1st prefs will come back on transfers).

[andrewp]

Ascot and Sunninghill

Con 1,264
LD 703
Ind 118
Lab 74

[andrewp]

The summary of this week

Con 6 (+4)
Lab 4 (-4)
LD 4 (-1)
Green 1 (+1)
PC 1 (=)

[swanarcadian]

Oct 18, 2024 11:10:25 GMT andrewp said:

Ascot and Sunninghill

Con 1,264
LD 703
Ind 118
Lab 74

Conservative HOLD

Ascot and Sunninghill (Windsor and Maidenhead) council by-election result:

CON: 58.5% (+18.4)
LDEM: 32.6% (+1.3)
IND: 5.5% (+5.5)
LAB: 3.4% (-11.6)

No Grn (-13.5) as prev.

+/- 2023

Estimated turnout: ~25% (-11)

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Con +243
LDm +116
Grn +38
PCy +21
SNP -18
Lab -42

[The Bishop]

Again not such a low score for Labour despite all the losses. This confirms my impression that their results in the past couple of weeks haven't actually been as bad for them as the previous few rounds of byelections were - when their support seemed to suddenly fall off a cliff.

Holding that Ashford seat might arguably have been our best result since the GE, if we had just managed a handful more votes.....

[andrewp]

An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.

Following the 16 contests held on the 17th October, there have now been 170 ordinary by elections for 172 seats since 2nd May 2024.

The Conservatives have defended 37- held 26 and lost 11- 6 to Labour, 2 to the Lib Dems, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 70%) and have gained 21

Labour have defended 93- held 69 and lost 24- 12 to the Conservatives, 6 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the SNP and 1 to RefUK ( retention rate 74%) and have gained 10

The Lib Dems have defended 24- held 16 and lost 8 - 4 to the Conservatives, 2 to Labour and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 5

The Greens have defended 4- held 3 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 75% ) and have gained 6

RefUK have gained 2 seats

SNP have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3 seats

PC have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 1 seat

There have been 12 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 4 were gained by the Conservatives 2 by Labour, and 1 by Plaid and an Independent has gained 3 seats

Overall totals and net changes since May

Con 47 (+10)
Lab 79 (-14)
LD 21 (-3)
Green 9 (+5)
Ind 8 (-4)
RefUK 2 (+2)
SNP 4 (+3)
PC 2 (+1)