Local Council by-elections 17th October 2024

[Tony Otim]

Another epic week this week:

ASHFORD DC; Aylesford & East Stour (Lab resigned following election as MP for Ashford)
Candidates:
COLLINS, Brian Philip (Reform UK)
COXALL, Alexander John (Liberal Democrat)
MATHEW, Reena (Labour)
PIZZEY, Thom (Green)
WOOD, Jac David (Conservative)

2023: Lab 332, 287; Grn 297, 261; Ashford Ind 258, 243; Con 144, 136
2019: Ashford Ind 426, 365; Lab 253, 237; Grn 160, 88; Con 150, 121; UKIP 147; LD 70

Reena Mathew and Thom Pizzey were the unsuccessful Labour and Green candidates respectively last time out, whilst Jac Wood stood for the Conservatives in Bybrook.

Current Council: Con 17; Ashford Ind 10; Lab 10; Grn 8; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



BEXLEY LBC; Belvedere (Lab resigned following election as MP for Bexleyheath & Crayford)
Candidates:
BARRY, Sarah Elizabeth Rose (Green)
BISHOP, Christine Frances (Conservative)
FOSTEN, Jeremy (Labour)
McBRIDE, David (Liberal Democrat)
PASTOR, Michael (Reform UK)

2022: Lab 2033, 1998, 1956; Con 1278, 1126, 1072; Grn 533
2018: Lab 2403, 2353, 2307; Con 1457, 1429, 1330

Michael Pastor (Reform) and Sarah Barry (Grn) both contested Erith & Thamesmead (which contains this ward) at the General Election. David McBride was the Lib Dem candidate for Bexleyheath & Crayford. Sarah Barry was also the Green candidate here in 2022, when Christine Bishop was the top Conservative candidate in the ward. Also in 2022, Jeremy Fosten (Lab) stood in Falconwood & Welling, David McBride (LD) in St Mary’s & St James and Michael Pastor (Reform) in Blackfen & Lamorbey.

Current Council: Con 31; Lab 11; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



CEREDIGION UA; Tirymynach (LD died)
Candidates:
COOK, James Ralph (Labour)
EVERSHED, Jonathan (Plaid Cymru)
HAYFIELD, Harry (Green)
LEWIS, Gareth (Liberal Democrat)
PARKER, Jack (Reform UK)
TERRY, Ethan James (Conservative)

2022: LD unopp
I think the boundary changes did not affect this ward, so to help the prediction competitors, previous results here were:
2017: LD 468; PC 365
2012: LD 544; PC 250
2008: LD 434; PC 420
2004: PC 465; LD 185

In 2022, James Cook (Lab) stood in Aberystwyth Morfa a Glais, Harry Hayfield in Llanrhystyd. Jack Parker (Reform) was the Conservative candidate in the Llanfarian by-election last July.

Current Council: PC 21; Ind 9; LD 6; Gwlad 1; 1 vacancy



CUMBERLAND UA; Keswick (Lab resigned following election as MP for Penrith & Solway)
Candidates:
HALL, Jane Cunningham (Green)
KING, Graham Anthony (Conservative)
LANSBURY, Sally Anne (Labour)
RIVERS, John Roger (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Lab 1340; Ind 319; Con 315

Sally Lansbury (Lab) was a councillor for the Keswick ward on the old Allerdale district (2019-2022).


CUMBERLAND UA; Wetheral (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ALCROFT, Ruth Elizabeth (Labour)
ELLIS, Gareth Michael (Conservative)
WILLS, Sarah Joyce (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Con 1173; Lab 607; LD 419

Ruth Alcroft was the Labour candidate here in 2022, Sarah Wills was the LD candidate in the Harraby by-election in June. Gareth Ellis (Con) stood in Belah in 2022 and is former councillor for Carlisle council (2010-22) in Belah and then Belah & Kingmoor wards.

Current Council: Lab 28; Con 7; LD 4; Ind Grp 3; Grn 2; 2 vacancies



FALKIRK UA; Falkirk South (Lab resigned following election as MP for Falkirk)
Candidates:
AITKEN, Claire (Labour)
BEATTIE, Carol Anne (SNP)
GRANT, David (Conservative)
MARTIN, Stuart (Reform UK)
McCAY, Sean (Liberal Democrat)
McKEAN, Sharron (Independent)
McLAUGHLIN, Tom (Green)

2022: SNP 1843, 701; Con 1744; Lab 1364; Grn 346; Ind 108
Oct 21by: SNP 1691; Con 1676; Lab 679; Grn 267 (SNP gain from Lab)
2017: SNP 2216; Con 1993; Lab 1686; Grn 315

David Grant (Con) is former cllr for Bonnybridge & Larbert who lost his seat in 2022. Stuart Martin (Reform) was the UKIP candidate in Grangemouth in 2022, whilst Sean McCay (LD) and Tom McLaughlin (Grn) stood in Carse, Kinnaird & Tryst.

Current Council: SNP 11; Lab 8; Con 4; Ind 4; Non-aligned Ind 2; 1 vacancy



GREENWICH LBC; Eltham Town & Avery Hill (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
DAVIS, Charlie (Conservative)
EDWARDS, Kieran (Liberal Democrats)
HANDYSIDE, Ruth (Reform UK)
McGURK, Chris (Labour)
TARLING, Arnold (Independent)
WILLIAMS, Mark (Green)

2022: Lab 1921, 1870, 1678; Con 1763, 1740, 1528; Grn 573; LD 340, 312; RefUK 164

Arnold Tarling (Ind) contested Eltham & Chislehurst at the General Election. Mark Williams was the Green candidate here in 2022. Charlie Davis (Con) stood in Eltham Park & Progress in 2022 and was formerly cllr for Eltham North (2016-22) on previous boundaries. Also in 2022, Ruth Handyside (Reform) stood in Shooters Hill.

Current Council: Lab 50; Con 3; LD 1; 1 vacancy



GWYNEDD UA; Llanberis (PC vacancy)
Candidates:
EVANS, Dewi Rhys (Plaid Werdd Cymru) [Green]
EVANS, Gwilym (Plaid Cymru)
JONES, Martin Andrew (No Description)
WILLIAMS, Anne (Liberal Democrats)

2022: PC 506; Ind 282; No Desc 67

Anne Williams was the Lib Dem candidate in the Llanuwchllyn by-election in September 2022 (She got 16 votes (4.2%) in a two-horse race). The No Description candidate lists former Labour membership on the SOPN. The Greens offer no English translation of the party description on the SOPN.

Current Council: PC 45; Ind 21; Lib/Lab 2 (1 of each); 1 vacancy



KIRKLEES MBC; Holme Valley South (Lab resigned following election as MP for Colne Valley)
Candidates:
BROOK, Damian Craig (Conservative)
COHEN, Howard (Liberal Democrats)
COOPER, Toby Michael (Green)
FINCH, Miri (Independent)
LAIRD, Susan (Reform UK)
LUCITT, Philip Anthony (Labour)

2024: Lab 2916; Con 2660; Grn 614; LD 246
2023: Lab 2785; Con 2585; Grn 478; LD 276
2022: Lab 3016; Con 2710; Grn 453; LD 266
2021: Con 3289; Lab 2511; Grn 490; LD 451; Yorks 206; 5star Direct Democracy 67
2019: Lab 1820; Con 1613; Dem & Vet 806; Grn 606; LD 539; UKIP 330
2018: Con 2758; Lab 2350; Grn 480; LD 278; Dem & Vet 135
2016: Con 2381; Lab 1680; UKIP 650; Grn 451; LD 381
2015: Con 4665; Lab 2794; UKIP 1334; Grn 857; LD 780; TUSC 242
2014: Con 2415; Lab 1641; Grn 805; LD 425
2012: Con 2435; Lab 1476; Grn 630; LD 480
2011: Con 3201; Lab 1808; Grn 794; LD 751
2010: Con 4348; LD 2809; Lab 2138; Grn 635; BNP 440
2008: Con 3113; Lab 848; LD 732; Grn 582; BNP 359
2007: Con 2732; Lab 942; Grn 769; LD 700; BNP 433
2006: Con 2596; Lab 979; LD 811; Grn 662; BNP 548
2004: Con 3252, 3090, 2810; Lab 1431, 1389, 1327; LD 1269, 1111, 1057; Grn 902, 815, 760

Vacancy is for the 2023 seat – all-outs on new boundaries due in 2026 in any case. Susan Laird (Reform) was the candidate in Huddersfield in the General Election (this ward is in Colne Valley constituency). Damian Brook (Con) has been the candidate here the last 3 elections. In May, Howard Cohen (LD) stood in Holme Valley North, Miri Finch (Ind) in Kirkburton and Phillip Lucitt (Lab) stood in Batley East.

Current Council: Lab 23; Con 15; LD 10; Comm All 6; Kirkless Comm Ind Grp 6; Grn 4; Ind 4; 1 vacancy



NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE DC; Royston Palace (Lab resigned following election as MP for North East Hertfordshire)
Candidates:
BARTRAM-BELL, Callum Lachlan (Conservative)
FROGETT, John David (Reform UK)
LEWIS, Gill (Liberal Democrats)
LUCAS, Sarah (Labour)
WILKIN, Peter (Green)

2024: Lab 581, 546; Con 376, 337; LD 362, 334; Ind 195

Gill Lewis was the second Lib Dem here in May, when Callum Bartram-Bell (Con) and Sarah Lucas (Lab) stood n Royston Meridian.

Current Council: Lab 24; LD 19; Con 7; 1 vacancies



ST ALBANS DC; Harpenden North & Rural (LD resigned)
Candidates:
GRIFFITHS, Sue (Conservative)
HARPER, Ross (Labour)
MAY, Mario Alexander (Green)
ROBERTSON, James Francis (Liberal Democrat)

2024: LD 1161; Con 662; Lab 186; Grn 152
2023: LD 1217; Con 736; Grn 171; Lab 167
2022: LD 1610, 1500, 1264; Con 861, 846, 761; Grn 243, 221; Lab 182

Ross Harper (Lab) and Mario May (Grn) stood here in May.

Current Council: LD 46; Con 3; Grn 3; Lab 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



STOCKPORT MBC; Bredbury Green & Romiley (LD resigned following election as MP for Hazel Grove)
Candidates:
BENTLEY, Pat (Conservative)
BRESNAHAN, Rachel (Liberal Democrat)
ANDOH-KEWKU, Papa (Labour)
WYATT, Stephanie (Green)

2024: LD 2192; Con 695; Lab 634; Grn 213
2023: LD 2301, 2239, 2048; Con 607, 563, 559; Lab 488, 439, 399; Grn 319

Vacancy is for 2023-27 term. Pat Bentley (Con) and Stephanie Wyatt (Grn) have contested the last 2 elections here.


STOCKPORT MBC; Cheadle West & Gatley (LD resigned following election as MP for Cheadle)
Candidates:
DRURY, Alexander (Green)
FARLEY, Dan (Labour)
FOX, Michael (Conservative)
KHAN, Huma (Liberal Democrat)

2024: LD 2515; Lab 863; Con 626; Grn 398
2023: LD 2219, 2160, 2018; Con 832, 759, 690; Lab 678, 569, 510; Grn 625

Vacancy is for the 2024-28 term. Alexander Drury was the Green candidate in Cheadle at the General Election and stood here in May. Michael Fox was the top Conservative here in 2023.

Current Council: LD 29; Lab 23; Edgeley Comm Ass 3; Ind Ratepayers 3; Grn 3; 2 vacancies



SWINDON UA; Rodbourne Cheney (Lab resigned following election as MP for Swindon North)
Candidates:
CARDOSO, Meural (Labour)
HEBDEN, Roderick George (Green)
NUKANA, Sudha Sri (Conservative)
PETRACHE, Alex (Independent)
SKINNER, Ciaran (Liberal Democrat)

2024: Lab 1420; Con 870; Grn 231; LD 118
2023: Lab 1649; Con 762; Grn 190; LD 124
2022: Lab 1604; Con 1040; Grn 197
2021: Con 1396; Lab 1224; Grn 222; Ind 105; LD 87
2019: Lab 1185; Con 981; UKIP 395
2018: Lab 1601; Con 991; UKIP 164; Grn 138; LD 108
2016: Lab 1660; Con 695; Grn 181; LD 109
2015: Lab 2394; Con 1751; UKIP 1133; Grn 330
2014: Lab 1305; UKIP 859; Con 668; Grn 174
2013: Lab 1663, 1567, 1480; Con 846, 845, 776; LD 193

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Sri Nukana was the Conservative cllr elected here in 2021 who lost this May. Rod Hebden was the Green candidate in Swindon South at the General Election (this ward is in Swindon North), and has contested this ward in every election since 2015 apart from 2019. Ciaran Skinner (LD) also stood here in May.

Current Council: Lab 40; Con 15; LD 1; 1 vacancy



WESTMORLAND & FURNESS UA; Grange & Cartmel (LD resigned)
Candidates:
BLOOMER, Tim (Liberal Democrat)
McLAREN, Tor (Conservative)

May 24by: LD 2852; Con 691; TUSC 151
2022: LD 2588, 2486, 2040; Ind 1428; Con 1050, 882, 729; Grn 301, 177, 137; TUSC 105

Tor McLaren was the top Conservative here in 2022.

Current Council: LD 35; Lab 15; Con 10; Ind 2; Grn 1; 2 vacancies



WINDSOR & MAIDENHEAD UA; Ascot & Sunninghill (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CONERON, Sally (Conservative)
HAYWARD, Nigel Ivan (Labour)
JEZARD, George (Liberal Democrat)
NEWMAN, Matt (the Borough first Independents)

2023: Con 1257, 1254, 993; LD 979, 940, 877; Lab 472; Grn 423
2019: Con 1446, 1372, 1355; LD 594, 486, 450; Ind 549; Lab 372, 321, 228

Nigel Hayward (Lab) and Matt Newman (Borough 1st) both stood in Sunningdale & Cheapside in 2023.

Current Council: LD 21; Con 6; tBfI 6; Ind – Old Windsor Res 2; West Windsor Res 2; Ind 1; Lab 1; National Flood Prevention Party 1; 1 vacancy

[John Chanin]

Several Conservative gains likely this week it seems.

[batman]

Lansbury is a very famous name. Most of them are related in some way to George Lansbury. I wonder if that one is. I know a Lansbury related to George in my locality.

[iang]

Sept 23, 2024 13:08:32 GMT John Chanin said:

Several Conservative gains likely this week it seems.

Greenwich presumably likely to be one of them, although rather a long time ago, when Greenwich was made up of smaller one or two member wards, Avery Hill was a regular Lib Dem ward

[harrygreenhayfield]

Due to cookies not allowing Facebook to function, I was signed out. I cannot remember what the password is to sign in, so have had to start from scratch, therefore can I be deleted / reminded of password / get back on permanently, so I can comment on this nomination of mine? Harry

[batman]

So long as you don't post quite as frequently as the last forum member to stand in a by-election Harry. Please spare us that at least.

[batman]

Sept 23, 2024 14:46:44 GMT iang said:

Sept 23, 2024 13:08:32 GMT John Chanin said:

Several Conservative gains likely this week it seems.

Greenwich presumably likely to be one of them, although rather a long time ago, when Greenwich was made up of smaller one or two member wards, Avery Hill was a regular Lib Dem ward

yes I should have thought so. There is also the strong possibility of a Labour loss in Scotland, though not necessarily to the Conservatives. However the political temperature may be a bit different in a few weeks' time from what it is now, this may just be a short crap period for Labour for all we know. Kirklees, N Herts & Ashford all look like very difficult defences, if Labour holds any of those they will be quite pleased. N Herts looks to be the hardest of all, Labour very rarely wins in Royston, about once in a generation or so it seems. 

[sanders]

Sept 23, 2024 13:08:32 GMT John Chanin said:

Several Conservative gains likely this week it seems.

A potentially tricky Conservative defence in Windsor & Maidenhead, however. The Lib Dems just won the Westminster seat so may have momentum in RBWM. 

[Tony Otim]

Sept 24, 2024 5:39:21 GMT sanders said:

Sept 23, 2024 13:08:32 GMT John Chanin said:

Several Conservative gains likely this week it seems.

A potentially tricky Conservative defence in Windsor & Maidenhead, however. The Lib Dems just won the Westminster seat so may have momentum in RBWM. 

Except this ward is in Windsor constituency which was a Conservative hold with the Lib Dems 3rd...

[batman]

Yes, Ascot used to be in the East Berkshire seat which was based on Bracknell but has been in Windsor since the Windsor seat was formed in 1997. Maidenhead constituency has not included Ascot. Windsor is at present, remarkably, the only Conservative seat in Berkshire.

[batman]

I remember a past profile of the Windsor constituency by Robert Waller saying that the Windsor constituency, as it included the castle, Eton and Ascot, contained powerful symbols of the Establishment.

[ciaran22]

Delighted to be standing again in the Swindon By Election for the Lib Dems

Surprised Reform haven’t stood here as I think they’d do quite well in this part of Swindon but I would be surprised of anything but a Labour win in this ward. The conservative candidate has a definite personal liking from their work in the ward till they lost re election in may so they could throw up a surprise but highly unlikely in the current political climate

[michaelarden]

Suspect Labour will lose all of their defences bar Keswick.

[John Chanin]

Sept 24, 2024 20:39:01 GMT michaelarden said:

Suspect Labour will lose all of their defences bar Keswick.

I would not be totally surprised at a Green win in Keswick. Labour also have a good shot at retaining Belvedere. I wouldn't bet on them anywhere else.

[sanders]

Sept 24, 2024 6:23:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 24, 2024 5:39:21 GMT sanders said:

A potentially tricky Conservative defence in Windsor & Maidenhead, however. The Lib Dems just won the Westminster seat so may have momentum in RBWM. 

Except this ward is in Windsor constituency which was a Conservative hold with the Lib Dems 3rd...

By jove, you are right there. I somehow forgot the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead includes ... Windsor. I would say the Lib Dems coming third there is a poor performance. It feels like the sort of fuck off wealthy constituency where they would have done well like they did in nearby seats. Lib Dems, Labour and Greens combined for something like half the vote while the Tories won with 36% of the vote - pretty confused voting it would seem. 

And yes, it's amusing that it's the only Tory seat in Berkshire but not surprising - the Lib Dems have been gunning for Maidenhead on and off for years now. Similarly, Bracknell was good for Labour in the locals. I believe the county council was perennially in No Overall Control hence why it's no longer a thing? The only Tory-run authority in Berks now is, of course, Slough, where they almost won control recently. 

A county council election in Berkshire in 2025 would've been pretty interesting but we are denied that psephological show. 

[batman]

Sept 25, 2024 6:17:52 GMT John Chanin said:

Sept 24, 2024 20:39:01 GMT michaelarden said:

Suspect Labour will lose all of their defences bar Keswick.

I would not be totally surprised at a Green win in Keswick. Labour also have a good shot at retaining Belvedere. I wouldn't bet on them anywhere else.

Swindon looks a likely Labour hold and I will likely be going for that. Keswick is not the most natural Labour territory and we may be greatly flattered by the 2022 result although a narrower retention is certainly possible. Not ruling out a Conservative gain in Swindon yet though

[The Bishop]

Keswick has been getting more Labour friendly for a while in truth, though I agree the previous result tells us little save how popular the then councillor (and now MP!) was.

[East Anglian Lefty]

North Herts Labour are a fairly effective campaigning outfit, so I wouldn't be overly surprised if they hold up better there than in some of the other contests - which is not, of course, to say that it's at all safe.

[harrygreenhayfield]

Sept 23, 2024 20:38:59 GMT batman said:

So long as you don't post quite as frequently as the last forum member to stand in a by-election Harry. Please spare us that at least.

Oh, does this mean that I cannot access that account ever again then? That's a shame

[greatkingrat]

Sept 23, 2024 20:03:29 GMT harrygreenhayfield said:

Due to cookies not allowing Facebook to function, I was signed out. I cannot remember what the password is to sign in, so have had to start from scratch, therefore can I be deleted / reminded of password / get back on permanently, so I can comment on this nomination of mine? Harry

Just use the forgotten password option on the login screen and you can reset your password.