Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2024 16:18:38 GMT
For some of us of a certain age, the thought of the Conservatives winning 50% in any election in Clay Cross and gaining 2 Town council seats is somewhat surreal I thought Tories would easily win. Labour since from 1922 to abolition. They held it even in 1931. Skinner's brother involved politically there, IIRC. |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 11, 2024 16:35:13 GMT
Simulations of the two North Lanarkshire polls as an ordinary election: Fortissat straightforwardly comes in at 2 seats for Labour and 1 each for Progressive Change North Lanarkshire and the SNP. That would be a PCNL gain from the British Unionist Party.  In Mossend and Holytown Labour and the SNP have one seat each, with the final seat unclear between Reform UK and the second Labour candidate. In this simulation RUK have it, which would be a gain from Lab, but two well-balanced Labour candidates could squeeze Reform out.  |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Oct 11, 2024 17:04:06 GMT
Clay Cross was the most obvious likely gain. No Reform candidate there helped hugely. Labour's 2024 majority in NE Derbyshire was identical to 2015 in percentage terms. That seat is on a long-term rightward trend - it's a commuter area for Sheffield. The seat as a whole may be a commuter area for Sheffield but I don't think Clay Cross is really: it's the wrong side of Chesterfield and has no railway station so it would be a horrible commute however you did it. The main Sheffield commuter areas are in the northern arm (Dronfield, Eckington etc.). I just did a custom area profile for the ward and it has a noticeably above average proportion in all age groups from 65-69 upwards. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Oct 11, 2024 17:13:24 GMT
The Green party in Leeds means the return of David Blackburn who held the seat from 1998 until May 2024. It will be interesting how he works with some of the new Green Party councillors who were elected this May. When he was Leader of the Green Party in 2004 he was part the Rainbow Alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party that ran the Leeds City Council until 2007. When the Green Party left that coalition the Morley Independents took the Green Party's place. The Reform vote is quite high and I can see Reform making gains in some of yhe more marhinal wards that the Green Party would also target. Whether Reform are likely to challenge the Conservatives in some of the traditional areas I coudl see them challenging both Labour, the SDP and the Conservatives in wards such as Temple Newsam, Bramley, Pudsey, Middleton Park, Kippax and Adel. Middleton would be the top target I’d say, but going too hard could damage both them and the SDP and let Labour in. One of the SDP Cllrs is fairly well entrenched and will take some shifting. The other two perhaps less so, but they’re on reasonable majorities still. Then you’d probably say Ardsley, and the two Morley seats, but those two are already held by independents, despite being a bit reformy. I’d have a bash at the seats that Labour hold almost by default, because there isn’t ever a sustained challenge by one candidate over a few years - Bramley to the west, then the likes of Seacroft, Temple Newsam and Cross Gates. Probs leave most of the others. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2024 17:21:19 GMT
Clay Cross was the most obvious likely gain. No Reform candidate there helped hugely. Labour's 2024 majority in NE Derbyshire was identical to 2015 in percentage terms. That seat is on a long-term rightward trend - it's a commuter area for Sheffield. The seat as a whole may be a commuter area for Sheffield but I don't think Clay Cross is really: it's the wrong side of Chesterfield and has no railway station so it would be a horrible commute however you did it. The main Sheffield commuter areas are in the northern arm (Dronfield, Eckington etc.). I just did a custom area profile for the ward and it has a noticeably above average proportion in all age groups from 65-69 upwards. That makes much more sense, actually. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Oct 11, 2024 18:05:13 GMT
Whether Reform are likely to challenge the Conservatives in some of the traditional areas I coudl see them challenging both Labour, the SDP and the Conservatives in wards such as Temple Newsam, Bramley, Pudsey, Middleton Park, Kippax and Adel. As a Man City fan, I always picture the Kippax in a shade of blue. |
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Post by certain on Oct 11, 2024 18:20:44 GMT
Transfers: Stage 2 (UKIP eliminated): 5 NT Reform 5 (268) LD 1 (84) Con 0 SNP 0 Lab 0 Stage 3: (LD eliminated): 31 NT (36) Lab 24 (640) Con 14 (141) Ref 8 (276) SNP 7 (593) Stage 4 (Con excluded): 61 NT (97) Ref 45 (321) Lab 28 (668) SNP 7 (600) Stage 4 (Reform Excluded): 234 NT (331) Lab 54 (722) SNP 33 (633) Overall very low transfer rates. Did they not do the for-psephologists'-benefit-only postfinal stage or did you omit it? Neither of these counts technically reached quota. There is no "postfinal stage". It is an invention of the "stupid" computerised counting system, which is unaware of Rules 53 and 55 and never implements them. These rules provide for the election of some candidates who have not reached the "quota" and prevent any such extra stage. "Transfers" obtained by the exclusion of the runner-up have no logical or mathematical validity. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2024 18:26:13 GMT
The Green party in Leeds means the return of David Blackburn who held the seat from 1998 until May 2024. It will be interesting how he works with some of the new Green Party councillors who were elected this May. When he was Leader of the Green Party in 2004 he was part the Rainbow Alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party that ran the Leeds City Council until 2007. When the Green Party left that coalition the Morley Independents took the Green Party's place. The Reform vote is quite high and I can see Reform making gains in some of yhe more marhinal wards that the Green Party would also target. Whether Reform are likely to challenge the Conservatives in some of the traditional areas I coudl see them challenging both Labour, the SDP and the Conservatives in wards such as Temple Newsam, Bramley, Pudsey, Middleton Park, Kippax and Adel. Middleton would be the top target I’d say, but going too hard could damage both them and the SDP and let Labour in. One of the SDP Cllrs is fairly well entrenched and will take some shifting. The other two perhaps less so, but they’re on reasonable majorities still. Then you’d probably say Ardsley, and the two Morley seats, but those two are already held by independents, despite being a bit reformy. I’d have a bash at the seats that Labour hold almost by default, because there isn’t ever a sustained challenge by one candidate over a few years - Bramley to the west, then the likes of Seacroft, Temple Newsam and Cross Gates. Probs leave most of the others. Reform could poll well in Morley. Kind of a small town place. |
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by Sharon on Oct 11, 2024 18:54:29 GMT
That’s a bit of a shock - not so much that Labour lost. In the days when the Lib Dems were the largest party on the council, they never won there. In fact, I don’t think they ever finished better than third in the past. Surprised too that the Tory vote wasn’t higher. Locals said the LDs worked it really hard. They threw everything and the kitchen sink at it. I am not in the slightest bit surprised. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 11, 2024 19:13:43 GMT
For some of us of a certain age, the thought of the Conservatives winning 50% in any election in Clay Cross and gaining 2 Town council seats is somewhat surreal I was working in Clay Cross a few days ago, and it's definitely not what you'd think of as a former deep mining town. It's got a Body Shop! |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 11, 2024 19:18:26 GMT
For some of us of a certain age, the thought of the Conservatives winning 50% in any election in Clay Cross and gaining 2 Town council seats is somewhat surreal I thought Tories would easily win. Labour since from 1922 to abolition. They held it even in 1931. Skinner's brother involved politically there, IIRC. Co-wrote the book about the rent capping "strike" that expelled all the councillors a few months before they were abolished. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 11, 2024 19:43:35 GMT
Re Hersham: it is 2 miles up the road from me and I know the successful candidate well, as we arrived at the same college (Balliol) 50 years to the day before this byelection (it was, as some may note, a general election day!).
There is a major planning issue in Hersham, re proposed redevelopment around housing reducing the shopping centre, and John O'Reilly has been associated with the protesters since before the byelection was called; and the LDs are now in control of the council and have been less active in the 'Save Hersham Village' campaign. Posters to this effect are ubiquitous in the ward.
But John is also known and liked as the current county councilor for Hersham, as well as a former district councillor for the Village ward.
I would therefore gently suggest, if I may, that not very much may be deduced about national standings from this one byelection.
I believe there were also local / candidate factors in the other Elmbridge contest, St George's Hill.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2024 5:53:39 GMT
I thought Tories would easily win. Labour since from 1922 to abolition. They held it even in 1931. Skinner's brother involved politically there, IIRC. Co-wrote the book about the rent capping "strike" that expelled all the councillors a few months before they were abolished. A sign of the times really. North East Derbyshire was 51.7% CON+RFM. Thus Reform not standing was ideal. Derbyshire CC elections will be interesting. Tories or Reform could target NED. Bolsover has winnable wards as well. Still, split opposition may help Labour. |
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Post by listener on Oct 12, 2024 9:01:42 GMT
The Conservatives had a landslide success in the last county council elections in 2021 and control Derbyshire County Council with 40 seats out of 65, although this has fallen from 45 in 2021, following two by-election losses and 3 defections (2 of them to Reform UK).
The Conservatives currently hold 7 out of 8 county seats in North East Derbyshire and 3 out of 6 county seats in Bolsover, so it may be a question of damage limitation, rather than targeting winnable wards. This pattern may well be repeated across all 31 councils electing next May.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 12, 2024 9:33:08 GMT
Whether Reform are likely to challenge the Conservatives in some of the traditional areas I coudl see them challenging both Labour, the SDP and the Conservatives in wards such as Temple Newsam, Bramley, Pudsey, Middleton Park, Kippax and Adel. As a Man City fan, I always picture the Kippax in a shade of blue. And singing "If I die on Kippax Street". |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2024 9:58:45 GMT
The Conservatives had a landslide success in the last county council elections in 2021 and control Derbyshire County Council with 40 seats out of 65, although this has fallen from 45 in 2021, following two by-election losses and 3 defections (2 of them to Reform UK). The Conservatives currently hold 7 out of 8 county seats in North East Derbyshire and 3 out of 6 county seats in Bolsover, so it may be a question of damage limitation, rather than targeting winnable wards. This pattern may well be repeated across all 31 councils electing next May. The most extreme example of this is perhaps Staffordshire, which in 2021 voted in 58 Tory members and just 4 Labour (and zero for anybody else) |
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Post by phil156 on Oct 12, 2024 10:03:37 GMT
✅ Labour HOLD South Acton (Ealing) council by-election result: LAB: 48.5% (-1.2) CON: 14.6% (-0.9) GRN: 13.8% (-6.1) LDEM: 10.0% (-1.8) REF: 7.6% (+7.6) ✅ Labour HOLD Northolt Mandeville (Ealing) council by-election result: LAB: 44.7% (-10.3) CON: 29.0% (+2.5) REF: 10.8% (+10.8) GRN: 7.9% (-3.9) LDEM: 4.5% (-2.2) +/- 2022 Again, for some reason BE have top 5 only In Northolt Mandeville the missing candidate was Workers Party who got 80 votes dont know about the percentage figure is - perhaps someone on here will provide In South Acton the missing candidates are Ind 65, Workers 32 & TUSC 18 |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 12, 2024 10:03:58 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Oct 12, 2024 10:17:23 GMT
Cheers Andrew greatly appreciated |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Oct 12, 2024 10:47:13 GMT
For some of us of a certain age, the thought of the Conservatives winning 50% in any election in Clay Cross and gaining 2 Town council seats is somewhat surreal I thought Tories would easily win. Labour since from 1922 to abolition. They held it even in 1931. Skinner's brother involved politically there, IIRC. Why are you apparently assuming that any area that was consistently Labour from the 1920s to the 1970s will now be naturally Tory/Reform territory? There is some (though not total) truth for this in ex-coalfield areas, particularly East Midland ones such as Clay Cross - otherwise, while given social and political changes over decades and centuries, no area is likely to remain eternally safe for any particular party, it is preposterous to assume that, short of a party almost totally disappearing politically, all areas of its strongest support in a previous period will now have switched to supporting its opponents.
And, while you may not have lived long enough yet to have seen some political circumstances having evolved from surreal to rationally expected (or vice versa), quite a few of the rest of us (fortunately or otherwise) have.
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