sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Oct 12, 2024 10:52:13 GMT
I thought Tories would easily win. Labour since from 1922 to abolition. They held it even in 1931. Skinner's brother involved politically there, IIRC. Why are you apparently assuming that any area that was consistently Labour from the 1920s to the 1970s will now be naturally Tory/Reform territory? There is some (though not total) truth for this in ex-coalfield areas, particularly East Midland ones such as Clay Cross - otherwise, while given social and political changes over decades and centuries, no area is likely to remain eternally safe for any particular party, it is preposterous to assume that, short of a party almost totally disappearing politically, all areas of its strongest support in a previous period will now have switched to supporting its opponents.
And, while you may not have lived long enough yet to have seen some political circumstances having evolved from surreal to rationally expected (or vice versa), quite a few of the rest of us (fortunately or otherwise) have.
There’s nothing natural about it happening. NE Derbyshire’s mining stopped in 1970. It’s not shocking how it’s trending. Bolsover might also trend further rightwards. I’m not repeating my 2015-17 arguments. The trends seem fairly clear really. Rother Valley is a better example. |
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Post by tonyhil on Oct 12, 2024 12:05:30 GMT
David Skinner and Julia Langdon's book on the Clay Cross rent strike - The Story of Clay Cross - seems to be quite rare these days. There's one on Amazon for £40.95, but none on ABE.
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sanders
Green
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Post by sanders on Oct 12, 2024 13:02:00 GMT
David Skinner and Julia Langdon's book on the Clay Cross rent strike - The Story of Clay Cross - seems to be quite rare these days. As are Labour voters in the town it would seem! I make my last comment in jest, of course. I love reading about how places have changed and Atlas Forum is exquisite for such tidbits. I'm sure Dennis Skinner remembers the strike you mention very well - I must read his book at some point. |
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Post by ccoleman on Oct 12, 2024 16:36:31 GMT
The Green party in Leeds means the return of David Blackburn who held the seat from 1998 until May 2024. It will be interesting how he works with some of the new Green Party councillors who were elected this May. When he was Leader of the Green Party in 2004 he was part the Rainbow Alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party that ran the Leeds City Council until 2007. When the Green Party left that coalition the Morley Independents took the Green Party's place. The Reform vote is quite high and I can see Reform making gains in some of yhe more marhinal wards that the Green Party would also target. Whether Reform are likely to challenge the Conservatives in some of the traditional areas I coudl see them challenging both Labour, the SDP and the Conservatives in wards such as Temple Newsam, Bramley, Pudsey, Middleton Park, Kippax and Adel. Are you confusing Adel with somewhere else? Because that’s definitely not the kind of place Reform would ever be competitive in. Maybe you’re thinking of Ardsley? |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Oct 12, 2024 16:40:56 GMT
The Reform view
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 13, 2024 20:54:30 GMT
Did they not do the for-psephologists'-benefit-only postfinal stage or did you omit it? Neither of these counts technically reached quota. There is no "postfinal stage". It is an invention of the "stupid" computerised counting system, which is unaware of Rules 53 and 55 and never implements them. These rules provide for the election of some candidates who have not reached the "quota" and prevent any such extra stage. "Transfers" obtained by the exclusion of the runner-up have no logical or mathematical validity. yes, of course. That's why I called it "postfinal" - because the stage before that is already the final stage. It has no logical validity, it's strictly against the letter of the law. It does however provide some interesting data points to election watchers. |
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Post by certain on Oct 14, 2024 9:56:54 GMT
There is no "postfinal stage". It is an invention of the "stupid" computerised counting system, which is unaware of Rules 53 and 55 and never implements them. These rules provide for the election of some candidates who have not reached the "quota" and prevent any such extra stage. "Transfers" obtained by the exclusion of the runner-up have no logical or mathematical validity. yes, of course. That's why I called it "postfinal" - because the stage before that is already the final stage. It has no logical validity, it's strictly against the letter of the law. It does however provide some interesting data points to election watchers. Well, maybe. But I have some questions. Does last place count as a transfer? If so, then presumably filling in the last place on the ballot paper counts, whereas leaving it blank does not. Is this an "interesting data point"? |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Oct 21, 2024 11:52:38 GMT
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