Local Council by-elections 9th & 10th October 2024

[Tony Otim]

Wednesday 9th October:

POWYS UA; Machynlleth (Ind died)
Candidates:
DHALIWAL, Amerjit (Green)
EVANS, Richard Alwyn (Plaid Cymru)
JONES, Gareth Wyn (Independent)
LEWIS, Oliver (Reform UK)
OWEN, Dylan Rees (Liberal Democrat)
RIGBY, Colin (Labour)

2022: Ind 404, 35; PC 319

Alwyn Evans was the Plaid candidate here in 2022. Ammi Dhaiwal stood for the Greens in Builth, Oliver Lewis (Reform) stood as independent in Forden & Montgomery and was the Reform candidate for Montgomery & Glyndwr at the General Election.

Current Council: LD 22; Powys Ind 15; Con 15; Lab 9; PC 3; Not specified 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy




Thursday 10th October:

COVENTRY MBC; St Michael’s (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
JANJUA, Ejaz Akbar (Workers Party)
JEWELL, Thomas James (Green)
JOBBAR, Sanjida (Labour)
NELLIST, Dave (TUSC)
SIMPSON, Robyn Clare (Liberal Democrats)
WILSON, Karen (Coventry Citizens)
YETKIN, Mehmet (Conservative)

2024: Lab 2222; Con 350; TUSC 346; Grn 329; CovCit 186; LD 147
2023: Lab 1869; Con 313; TUSC 221; Grn 176; LD 135; CovCit 109
2022: Lab 1898; Con 270; TUSC 257; Grn 181; CovCit 114
2021: Lab 2028; Con 385; TUSC 274; Grn 166; CovCit 100; LD 94
2019: Lab 1765; SocAlt 396; Con 224; Grn 190
2018: Lab 1952; TUSC 350; Con 275; Grn 146
2016: Lab 2122; TUSC 635; Con 274; Grn 178
2015: Lab 3158; TUSC 894; Con 656; UKIP 408’ Grn 352
2014: Lab 1872; TUSC 974; Con 261; Grn 174
2012: Lab 1673; SocAlt 1469; Con 243
2011: Lab 2419; SocAlt 1263; Con 434
2010: Lab 2958; SocAlt 1783; Con 1403
2008: SocAlt 1643; Lab 1336; Con 399
2007: Lab 1240; SocAlt 1156; Con 459
2006: SocAlt 1191; Lab 1106; Con 428; LD 248
2004: SocAlt 1586, 1449, 1201; Lab 1217, 1201, 1118; Con 469, 436, 361; LD 409, 391

The Conservative stood here in May. Karen Wilson (Coventry Citizens) has contested the ward at every election since 2021. Nellist was, of course, councillor for the ward up until 2012 and has contested every election since. He is the former MP for Coventry South East (1983-1992) and stood in Coventry East at the recent General Election (this ward is in Coventry South). This May, Tom Jewell (Green) stood in Lower Stoke.

Current Council: Lab 39; Con 12; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



EALING LBC; Hanger Hill (Con resigned following election as MP for Farnham & Bordon)
Candidates:
CROSSLAND, Kate (Green)
HANRAHAN, Sean (Conservative)
MALIK, Guneet Singh (Labour)
OXLEY, Jonathan Mark (Liberal Democrat)
PUKAJ, Fabio (Reform UK)
THABIT, Wagdi (Workers Party)

2022: LD 1657, 1456, 1437; Con 1559, 1549, 1479; Lab 1166, 1154, 1094; Grn 645

Jonathan Oxley was the 3rd Lib Dem here last time. Kate Crossland was the Green candidate for Ealing Central & Acton (which contains this ward) at the General Election and contested Hanwell Broadway in 2022 and has contested this ward on previous boundaries in 2018 and the 2021 by-election. Also in 2022, Sean Hanrahan (Con) stood in Northfield.


EALING LBC; Northolt Mandeville (Lab resigned following election as MP for Ealing Southall)
Candidates:
BAILEY, Andrew (Conservative)
DA CONCEICAO, Pedro (Liberal Democrat)
KUBICA, Natalia (Green)
LEWANDOWSKI, Conrad (Reform UK)
MOFFITT, Dominic Henry Theo (Labour)
OMIMA, Eltayeb (Workers Party)

2022: Lab 2566, 2364, 2309; Con 1236, 990, 984; Grn 551; LD 312, 287, 220

Pedro Da Conceicao (LD) contested Ealing Southall at the General Election as an independent. Natalia Kubica was the Green candidate for Ealing North (which contains this ward) at the General Election and stood in Northolt West End in 2022. Andrew Bailey (Con) stood in Perivale in 2022,


EALING LBC; South Acton (Lab resigned following election as MP for Buckingham & Bletchley)
Candidates:
CARTER, Julie (Independent)
DAVIES HERBST, Lucas (Workers Party)
DOUGLAS, Katie Lynn (Labour)
HOFMAN, David Lawrence (TUSC)
HUGHES, Timothy William Bailey (Liberal Democrat)
MANASSERO, Marco (Reform UK)
MOWER, Kristian (Conservative)
WALKLEY, Andrew John (Green)

2022: Lab 2292, 2210, 2111; Grn 915; Con 711, 706, 607; LD 543, 459, 335; Ind 150, TUSC 128

Timothy Hughes was the second Lib Dem here last time. Julie Carter stood as an independent in Ealing Central & Acton (which contains this ward) at the General Election having stood for UKIP in Ealing Common in 2022. David Hofman (TUSC) stood in North Acton in 2022.

Current Council: Lab 57; LD 6; Con 4; 3 vacancies



ELMBRIDGE DC; Hersham Village (LD resigned)
Candidates:
ELDERGILL, Francis (Labour)
KHODIYAR, Varsha (Liberal Democrat)
O’REILLY, John (Conservative)

2024: LD 1349; Con 1209; Lab 179
2023: LD 1300; Con 1236; Lab 251
2022: LD 1122; Con 1102; Lab 262
2021: Con 1294; LD 781; Lab 401
2019: Con 1177; Hersham Village Soc 780; Lab 271
2018: Con 1152; HVS 640; Lab 314; Grn 256
2016: HVS 1111, 904; Con 1051, 875, 770; Grn 508; Lab 419; LD 325; UKIP 278

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. John O’Reilly was the defeated Conservative in 2022 and second Tory candidate in 2016 – he is the current county councillor for Hersham division (since 2017). Francis Eldergill (Lab) stood in Long Ditton in May,


ELMBRIDGE DC; Weybridge St George’s Hill (Con died)
Candidates:
JOHANSSON, Brittany Janelle (Green)
KELLY, Andrew (Weybridge & St George’s Independents)
McFARLANE, Colin Garth (Conservative)

2024: WSGI 1275; Con 705; Lab 239; Grn 185
2023: WSGI 1144; Con 908; Lab 294
2022: Con 1304; WSGI 909; Lab 320
2021: WSGI 1153; Con 1064; Lab 249; Ind 121
2019: WSGI 1201; Con 907; Lab 182
2018: Con 1293; WSGI 878; Lab 219
2016: WSGI 1154, 1029, 883; Con 1057, 1033, 862; Lab 176, 149

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Colin McFarlane was the defeated Conservative here in May and 2023. An Andrew Kelly stood for the Walton Society in Walton Central in May.

Current Council: LD 21; Con 9; Thames Ditton & Weston Green Res 4; Molesey Res 3; Esher Res 3; Hinchley Wood Res 2; WSGI 2; Ind 1; Walton Soc 1; 2 vacancies



FYLDE DC; Warton (Ind died)
Candidates:
BRICKLES, Michael John (Independent)
KELLY, Ross (Labour)
RIGBY, Bobby (Conservative)
WALSH, Jayne (Green)

2023: Ind 518; Con 391, 370; Lab 355

The deceased indy was Julie Ann Brickles (first elected in 2011 to the old Warton & Westby ward), so Michael is presumably a relation. Bobby Rigby was the second Conservative here last year and Conservative Cllr for Warton & Westby 2019-23. Jayne Walsh stood for the Greens in Wrea Green with Westby in 2023, as did Michael Brickles as an independent.

Current Council: Con 19; Ind 10; Non-aligned 3; Lab 2; LD 2; 1 vacancy



HARLOW DC; Little Parndon & Town Centre (Lab resigned after election as MP for Harlow)
Candidates:
CLARK, Linda (Labour)
GOUGH, Mark Robert Edward (UKIP)
JOHNSON, Ernesto Guerrero (Green)
LAMB, Peter Michael (Reform UK)
MORRISON, Colleen Lee (Conservative)

2024: Lab 761, 710, 671; Con 388, 349, 332; Grn 187, 133, 108

Vacancy is for 2024-28 term. In May, Mark Gough (UKIP) and Ernesto Johnson (Grn) stood in Mark Hall ward and Colleen Morroson (Con) in Bush Fair.

Current Council: Con 17; Lab 15; 1 vacancy



LEEDS MBC; Farnley & Wortley (Lab resigned after election as MP for Leeds South West & Morley)
Candidates:
ALLISON, Peter Edward (Independent)
ANDREWS, Peter Richard (Liberal Democrat)
BLACKBURN, David (Green)
DRESSER, David Stephen (Reform UK)
GARTHWAITE, Al (Labour)
RILEY, Richard (SDP)
SURYAWANSHI, Lalit (Conservative)

2024: Lab 2222; Grn 1717; Con 613; LD 229; SDP 76
2023: Lab 2438; Grn 1648; Con 537; RefUK 201; LD 65; Ind 61; SDP 17
2022: Lab 2567; Grn 1819; Con 959
2021: Grn 2293; Lab 2155; Con 1004; Yorks 315; LD 77
2019: Grn 2010; Lab 1798; UKIP 659; Con 332; LD 96
2018: Grn 2461, 2424, 1984; Lab 2151, 1991, 1989; Con 685, 643, 615; For Britain 162; LD 160

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Peter Allison (Ind) was the Conservative candidate here in 2022. Peter Andrews was the Lib Dem this year. David Blackburn (Grn) was a long serving councillor for the ward and its predecessor who lost his seat this May. David Dresser was the Reform candidate for Leeds East (not containing this ward) at the General Election and stood in Temple Newsam in May. Al Garthwaite (Lab) is former cllr for Headingley & Hyde Park who lost her seat to the Greens this year. Richard Riley (SDP) stood in Bramley & Stanningley in May and Lalit Suryawanshi for the Conservatives in Morley North.

Current Council: Lab 60; Con 14; LD 6; Grn 5; Morley Ind 4; Garforth & Swillington Ind Grp 3; SDP 3; Local Ind Party 3; 1 vacancy



LEWES DC; Wivelsfield (Grn resigned)
Candidates:
MORRIS, Sue (Green)
STOTHARD, Nadine (Liberal Democrat)
WEBSTER, Sarah Victoria (Conservative)

2023: Grn 497; Con 345; LD 102
2019: Con 361; LD 167; Grn 112

Current Council: Grn 15; LD 15; Lab 9; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE DC; Clay Cross North (Lab died)
Candidates:
FARRAND, Ash (Green)
GREEN, Emma Jane (Labour)
SHAFIK, Leah Hannah (Liberal Democrats)
STOKES, Jess (Conservative)

2023: Lab 842, 765, 759; Con 684, 631, 591; LD 147, 143, 136
2019: Lab 627, 590, 549; Con 362, 353, 315; LD 202, 186, 165

Leah Shafik has stood here for the Lib Dems in the last 2 elections.

Current Council: Lab 27; Con 18; Ind Grp 3; LD 3; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Fortissat (Lab resigned following election as MP for Airdrie & Shotts)
Candidates:
ACHESON, Billy (British Unionist)
BUTLER, Leigh (Liberal Democrat)
CAMERON, Sheila (Conservative)
McALEESE, Brendan (SNP)
McINTOSH, Mary (Progressive Change North Lanarkshire)
QUIGLEY, Clare (Labour)

2022: Lab 1028, 636; SNP 949, 457; BUP 859; Con 512; Grn 118
Mar 21by: Lab 1071; SNP 965; Con 656; Grn 69; UKIP 31 (Lab gain from SNP)
Sep 17by: Lab 1420; BUSP 858; SNP 761; Con 424; Ind 184; Grn 24; UKIP 18 (Lab gain from Con)
2017: Lab 1477, 363; SNP 1016, 449; Con 670; No Referendum Maintain Union Pr-Brexit 559; Ind 509

Billy Acheson (BU) stood in last year’s by-election in Motherwell SE & Ravenscraig. Clare Quigley (Lab) was the by-election winner from 2017 – she did not re-stand in 2022 (Labour had 4 /4 cllrs for the ward by that point, which was not defensible). Sheila Cameron (Con) stood in Mossend & Holytown (see below) in 2022. Progressive Change is a group set-up by ex-SNP cllrs following their local difficulties.


NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Mossend & Holytown (Lab resigned following election as MP for Coatbridge & Bellshill)
Candidates:
ALEXANDER, Aimee (Conservative)
COLE, John (Liberal Democrat)
GRAY, Helena (Labour)
KHAN, Shahnawaz (SNP)
MacMILLAN, Duncan (Reform UK)
WILSON, Neil (UKIP)

2022: SNP 974, 642; Lab 1132, 364; Con 486; Alba 198
2017: Lab 1131, 429; SNP 1062, 456; Con 641

Neil Wilson (UKIP) stood in last year’s by-elections in Bellishill, getting 7 votes, and Motherwell SE & Ravenscraig, where he had also stood in 2022. In 2022, John Cole (LD) stood in Cumbernauld North.

Current Council: Lab 31; SNP 24; Progressive Change NL 7; Ind 6; Con 5; BU 1; Grn 1;



NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE UA; Burton & Broughton (Con resigned disqualified for non-attendance)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Jenny (Liberal Democrat)
EVELYN, Alex (Conservative)
PADGET, Nigel (Labour)
WATTS, Adrian (Green)

2021: Con 1543, 1541, 1120; Grn 1004; LD 920, 786; Ind 598; Lab 519

Adrian Watts was the Green candidate here in 2021 and Jenny Davies the second Lib Dem.

Current Council: Con 52; Lab 16; Ind 4; Grn 3; LD 1; No Desc 1; 1 vacancy



PEMBROKESHIRE UA; The Havens (Ind died)
Candidates:
GRIFF, Jony (Independent)
HARRIS, Mike (Independent)
HUGHES, Thomas James (Liberal Democrat)
NEUMANN, Nick (Conservative)

2022: Ind 486; Con 341

Nick Neumann was the defeated Conservative here in 2022. Mike Harris (Ind) was formerly a Reform member according to the SOPN.

Current Council: Ind Grp 19; Not affiliated 16; Lab 10; Con 10; PC 2; LD 2; 1 vacancy



RUNNYMEDE DC; Addlestone South (Con died)
Candidates:
COULON, Jenny (Liberal Democrat)
ELDRIDGE, Steve (Conservative)
PERCIVAL, Elaine (Labour)
WARD, Jess (Green)

2024: Con 605; Lab 596; LD 240
2023: Con 609; Lab 529; LD 178; Grn 143
2022: Con 610; Lab 339; LD 251; Grn 176
2021: Con 845; Lab 394; LD 229
2019: Con 690, 658, 655; Lab 465, 416, 411; UKIP 313

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Elaine Percival was the Labour candidate here for the last 2 elections. In May Jenny Coulon (LD) stood in Woodham & Rowtown,

Current Council: Con 12; Lab 8; LD 6; Runnymede Ind Res 6; Ind non-affilated 5; Grn 3; 1 vacancy



SOUTH RIBBLE DC; Bamber Bridge West (Lab resigned following election as MP for South Ribble)
Candidates:
BOLLENBERG, David William (Labour)
BRIDGE, Stephen Richard (Conservative)
VALENTINE, Paul Anthony (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Lab 490, 442; Con 248, 221
2019: Lab 507, 440; Con 283, 272
2015: Lab 1051, 947; Con 714, 710

Last year, Stephen Bridge (Con) stood in Lostock Hall and Paul Valentine (LD) in Coupe Green & Gregson Lane.

Current Council: Lab 27; Con 15; LD 5; Ind 1; 2 vacancies



SOUTHAMPTON UA; Shirley (Lab resigned following election as MP for Southampton Test)
Candidates:
FRICKER, Maggie (TUSC)
HETHERTON, Andrew (Conservative)
MARGETTS, Barrie Maxwell (Green)
PERCIVAL, George Edward (Liberal Democrat)
POPE, Andrew Douglas (No Description)
UGWOEME, Victoria (Labour)

2024: Lab 1458; Con 933; LD 734; Grn 262; RefUK 248; TUSC 54
2023: Lab 1956, 1688, 1599; Con 1286, 1173, 1119; LD 612, 477, 406; Grn 551; TUSC 92

Vacancy is for the 2023-27 term. Both the Conservative and Lib Dem stood here this year and in 2023. In May, Maggie Fricker (TUSC) stood in Coxford and contested Southampton Test (which contains this ward) at the General Election. Victoria Ugwoeme (Lab) was cllr for Woolston 2023-24 and narrowly lost in May.

Current Council: Lab 35; Con 10; LD 4; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



SUFFOLK CC; Hoxne & Eye (Con died)
Candidates:
BROOKS, Joanne (Green)
GLENTON, Timothy William (Liberal Democrat)
LLOYD, Henry James (Conservative)
THEAKER, Paul David (Labour)

2021: Con 1467; Ind 806; LD 623; Lab 363
2017: Con 1846; LD 470; Lab 466; Grn 268; UKIP 197
2013: Con 1238; UKIP 666; Lab 447; Grn 227; LD 138
2009: Con 1878; LD 1198; Lab 229
2005: Con 2525; LD 1384; Lab 1104

The indy in 2021 was the sitting cllr, elected for the Conservatives in every election since 2005. Timothy Glenton was the Lib Dem here in 2021. Paul Theaker (Lab) stood in Stadbroke & Laxfield (Mid Suffolk) (mainly in this division) in 2023. Although the Conservatives took 3 out of the 4 district seats covering this division in 2023 it would have been extremely close between them and the Greens overall (3 of the 4 wards cross the division boundary so hard to tell exactly, albeit that 2 of the ward didn’t have Labour or Lib Dem candidates).

Current Council: Con 50; Grn 9; Lab 6; LD 5; Ind 2; RefUK 1; West Suffolk Ind 1; 1 vacancy



WORTHING DC; Heene (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
HOUGHTON, Luke (Conservative)
SQUIRES, Anthony Paul (Labour)
STARLING, Trudi (Liberal Democrat)
THORNTON, Kate Emily (Green)

2024: Lab 1245; Con 580; Grn 232; LD 153
2023: Lab 1273; Con 620; Grn 189; LD 172
2022: Lab 1333; Con 883; Grn 276
2021: Lab 1091; Con 924; Grn 347; LD 130
2019: Lab 866; Con 758; Grn 277; LD 163; Ind 147
2018: Lab 1029; Con 964; Grn 139; LD 134
2016: Con 700; Lab 629; UKIP 331; Grn 149; LD 116
2015; Con 1449; Grn 802; Lab 604; UKIP 599; LD 289
2014: Con 714; Grn 507; UKIP 498; Lab 222; LD 158
2012: Con 685; LD 425; UKIP 331
2011: Con 1144; Lab 598; LD 433
2010: Con 1642; LD 1337; Lab 534
2008: Con 1018; LD 632
2007: Con 1003; LD 446; Grn 248; UKIP 173
2006: Con 1098; LD 674
2004: Con 1121, 1116, 1080; LD 560, 492, 387; Grn 393; Lab 302; Legalise Cannabis 173

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. Trudi Starling was the Lib Dem candidate here in 2023 and stood in Marine this May. Also this May, Anthony Squires (Lab) stood in Salvington.

Current Council: Lab 21; Con 9; Worthing Comm Ind 3; Grn 2; 2 vacancies

[Tony Otim]

Right, I'm off for a long lie-down now...

[batman]

I remember Francis Eldergill (Lab, Hersham) as a member of Twickenham CLP years ago. He must be a good age.

[sanders]

Blooming heck that’s too much democracy.

[Khunanup]

Andrew Pope in Shirley was councillor for Redbridge from 2011-19, elected and reelected for Labour before leaving them and setting up his (unsuccessful) Southampton Independents and not contesting the seat in '19.

[notabrummie]

Sept 16, 2024 20:10:05 GMT Tony Otim said:

Right, I'm off for a long lie-down now...

Phew!
So am I and I have only read it!

[Tony Otim]

Sept 16, 2024 23:46:45 GMT notabrummie said:

Sept 16, 2024 20:10:05 GMT Tony Otim said:

Right, I'm off for a long lie-down now...

Phew!
So am I and I have only read it!

The following week will be almost as bad.

[lackeroftalent]

Leeds, Farnley & Wortley

Reposting from another thread. The Independent has announced that they are not an eligible candidate due to being an employee of the council but presumably will still appear on the ballot and should they win be automatically disqualified.

From the West Leeds Dispatch(online)

Independent candidate Peter Allison has been disqualified from standing in next month’s Farnley & Wortley by-election.

Mr Allison, of Tong Road, Farnley, took to social media to confirm his disqualification, which is connected to his job as a youth worker with Leeds City Council.

He wrote on Facebook: “It is with regret that I have to inform you that I have been disqualified from the local elections on 10 October.

“I was always aware that I would have to resign from my role within Leeds City Council as a youth worker but I was unaware that my resignation plus notice period would have to have ended by the time I submitted my nomination papers.

“I imagine there will be some other happy candidates today, just unfortunately not myself.
Nonetheless, I will endeavour to do what I can to continue supporting our community and who knows what the future will hold.

“Thank you to everyone who showed their support since I announced my candidacy.”

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Great work Tony Otim

[Ron Swanson]

The Reform candidate for Farnley & Wortley previously stood several times for the Lib Dems, I believe. Including in the 2019 GE, on a ‘Stop Brexit’ ticket.

Now… I know people’s views can change…

Reform might fancy their chances as UKIP have done well previously here (going back a while) but I think the Greens have the best shot at turning Labour over here.

I’d wager that it’ll be fairly close between those two, with the rest miles behind.

Lalit S is quickly becoming a perennial Tory candidate, enthusiasm is to be admired but sometimes sitting one out and letting someone else take the inevitable whacking wouldn’t hurt.

[batman]

as a perennial election loser I can relate to the last sentence.

[andrewteale]

North Northamptonshire: it appears that the outgoing Conservative councillor was actually disqualified for non-attendance.

[andrewteale]

Advance warning that Thursday's Previews will be coming out in two parts.

Also Tony Otim : Al Garthwaite in Leeds is a she.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 6, 2024 15:10:16 GMT andrewteale said:

Advance warning that Thursday's Previews will be coming out in two parts.

Also Tony Otim : Al Garthwaite in Leeds is a she.

Now corrected.

[iainbhx]

I am just returning to Brum from Machynlleth and I can assure you that they are all of a tizzy about this sudden democracy. There appear to be four serious candidates although people seem to think it is between the Indo and Plaid, but the Libdem and the Labour candidates are reasonably well-known.

[Sharon]

Sept 16, 2024 21:42:37 GMT Khunanup said:

Andrew Pope in Shirley was councillor for Redbridge from 2011-19, elected and reelected for Labour before leaving them and setting up his (unsuccessful) Southampton Independents and not contesting the seat in '19.

Also, Barrie Margetts was a Labour Cllr for Coxford from 2019 to 2023, when he was deselected, now he's joined the Greens.

[phil156]

Powys counts Wednesday night

[gibbon]

I believe that the Reform candidate for the Farnley and Wortley by-election in Leeds was a Labour candidate pre-Corbyn then a Liberal Democrat candidate before he becama Reform candidate.

[Merseymike]

Oct 8, 2024 11:52:14 GMT gibbon said:

I believe that the Reform candidate for the Farnley and Wortley by-election in Leeds was a Labour candidate pre-Corbyn then a Liberal Democrat candidate before he becama Reform candidate.

Indeed
He was a Farnley and Wortley candidate in 2012. He lost
Have a look at the Twitter - not surprised! Why was he a Labour candidate?

[kitesurfer]

This is quite a meaty night of by-elections with lots of contests in areas where I have previously lived!

I reckon the Tories have a good chance of winning in Shirley, Southampton. Until Satvir Kaur was elected in 2011, the seat was Tory for some time. I reckon Kaur was the glue that held everything together. With her now in Westminster and the state of Labour in the polls, I think the seat might well ‘come home’ to the Conservatives. I think Labour will get a massive kicking here.

Tories must be favourites to win Weybridge in Elmbridge even though they did not win this year. They won another by-election in Cobham I think on 4 July and this seat is of course outside Esher and Walton. The previous Tory councillor was also extremely liked. Hersham is a little harder to predict, but I would probably just about give the Tories the nod there.

Hanger Hill in Ealing will be interesting. This was traditionally one of the safest wards for the Tories and it was very disappointing for them to have lost one of the seats in 2022 and crucially making the Lib Dems the official opposition. I suspect the Tories should just edge it given that they are now out of office in Westminster. A lot of people in this ward send their children to private schools and I think that will help the Tories.