right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Oct 11, 2024 10:41:27 GMT
Was this in Waveney Valley/Mid Suffolk or another Suffolk seat? Decent result for Greens in another Suffolk seat, but the Tories should have been drowned out if they were up against the Greens canvassing data from the General Election. If it is Waveney Valley the local Tories are probably ecstatic with dodging what must have seemed like a nailed on loss. Although the recent Mid Suffolk by-election, albeit not in Waveney Valley was a Con gain with a clear swing in their favour since last May, so nailed on loss is I think over-stating it. Was that in Waveney Valley though? If not I imagine the voter intention data wouldn't have been nearly as good. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2024 10:46:14 GMT
Although the recent Mid Suffolk by-election, albeit not in Waveney Valley was a Con gain with a clear swing in their favour since last May, so nailed on loss is I think over-stating it. If not I imagine the voter intention data wouldn't have been nearly as good. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 10:56:09 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 21 contests held on the 10th and 11th October, there have now been 154 ordinary by elections for 156 seats since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 35- Held 24 and lost 11- 6 to Labour, 2 to the Lib Dems, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 69%) and have gained 17
Labour have defended 85- held 65 and lost 20- 9 to the Conservatives, 5 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the SNP and 1 to RefUK ( retention rate 76%) and have gained 10
The Lib Dems have defended 19- held 12 and lost 7 - 3 to the Conservatives, 2 to Labour and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 63%) and have gained 5
The Greens have defended 4- held 3 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 75% ) and have gained 5
RefUK have gained 2 seats
SNP have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3 seats
PC have gained 1 seat
There have been 12 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 4 were gained by the Conservatives 2 by Labour, and 1 by Plaid and an Independent has gained 3 seats
Overall totals and net changes since May
Con 41 (+6)
Lab 75 (-10)
LD 17 (-2)
Green 8 (+4)
Ind 8 (-4)
RefUK 2 (+2)
SNP 4 (+3)
PC 1 (+1)
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 11, 2024 11:05:35 GMT
GWBWI
Stonkingly good week for the Cons, and not as poor for Labour as you might expect. The former is because of a string of good solid wins, with a scattering of poor results; the latter because a fair few decent holds generated enough positives to almost balance out a few torrid spots.
Con +310
LDm +88
Grn +71
PC +30
Lab -19
SNP -35
In terms of individual results, Cons best were Fylde +63, NE Derbyshire +63, Worthing +54, Pembrokeshire +51, Elmbridge (WSGH) +51. Worst Ealing (HH) -33, Lewes -19. Labour best N Lanarkshire (F) +45, Harlow +40, N Lanarkshire (M&H) +36; worst NE Derbyshire -57, Worthing -50, Southampton -43, Leeds -36. Heene would have been a lot worse had it not been a Con seat just two cycles ago - although older cycles are weighted down, that still reduces the impact of losing it (back) to the Cons.
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Post by aargauer on Oct 11, 2024 11:18:43 GMT
Stonkingly good against Labour. When against the Lib Dems not nearly as good.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2024 11:31:25 GMT
GWBWI Stonkingly good week for the Cons, and not as poor for Labour as you might expect. The former is because of a string of good solid wins, with a scattering of poor results; the latter because a fair few decent holds generated enough positives to almost balance out a few torrid spots. Con +310 LDm +88 Grn +71 PC +30 Lab -19 SNP -35 In terms of individual results, Cons best were Fylde +63, NE Derbyshire +63, Worthing +54, Pembrokeshire +51, Elmbridge (WSGH) +51. Worst Ealing (HH) -33, Lewes -19. Labour best N Lanarkshire (F) +45, Harlow +40, N Lanarkshire (M&H) +36; worst NE Derbyshire -57, Worthing -50, Southampton -43, Leeds -36. Heene would have been a lot worse had it not been a Con seat just two cycles ago - although older cycles are weighted down, that still reduces the impact of losing it (back) to the Cons. Though again, it shows how this thing is often reliant on fine margins - a literal handful vote differently in Suffolk and Elmbridge, and the Tory score drops quite a bit. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2024 11:35:10 GMT
Fortissat Labour hold. Labour - 807 (36.6%, +0.1%) Progressive Change - 529 (24.0%, new) SNP - 447 (20.3%, -10.6%) British Unionist - 241 (10.9%, -7.9%) Conservative - 124 (5.6%, -5.6%) Lib Dem - 57 (2.6%, new) Transfers: Stage 2 (LD eliminated): 17 NT PCNL 13 (542) Lab 11 (818) Con 7 (131) SNP 5 (452) BUP 4 (245) Stage 3 (Con eliminated); BUP 52 (297) 44 NT (61) Lab 16 (834) PCNL 14 (556) SNP 5 (457) Stage 4 (BUP eliminated) 152 NT (213) PCNL 78 (634) Lab 58 (892) SNP 9 (466) Stage 5 (SNP eliminated) 228 NT (441) PCNL 123 (757) Lab 115 (1007) The SNP vote splitting almost equally for Labour is a little surprising. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 11:41:33 GMT
Stonkingly good against Labour. When against the Lib Dems not nearly as good. Hersham says hello; Lewes was shit. Ealing Central & Acton is gone. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2024 11:41:36 GMT
North Lanarkshire, Mossend and Holytown Lab 616 SNP 586 RefUK 263 Con 127 LD 83 UKIP 11 Lab elected after transfers Transfers: Stage 2 (UKIP eliminated): 5 NT Reform 5 (268) LD 1 (84) Con 0 SNP 0 Lab 0 Stage 3: (LD eliminated): 31 NT (36) Lab 24 (640) Con 14 (141) Ref 8 (276) SNP 7 (593) Stage 4 (Con excluded): 61 NT (97) Ref 45 (321) Lab 28 (668) SNP 7 (600) Stage 4 (Reform Excluded): 234 NT (331) Lab 54 (722) SNP 33 (633) Overall very low transfer rates. |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 11, 2024 11:45:15 GMT
Stonkingly good against Labour. When against the Lib Dems not nearly as good. Hersham says hello; Lewes was shit. Ealing Central & Acton is gone. That's true, and unlike in Southampton and Ealing it matters in terms of the parliamentary seat. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 11:46:36 GMT
Hersham says hello; Lewes was shit. Ealing Central & Acton is gone. That's true, and unlike in Southampton and Ealing it matters in terms of the parliamentary seat. Although the Tories don't need Esher & Walton for a majority, along with Lewes, and Ealing Central. North East Derbyshire, however, is a must win for them now. The Clay Cross result was important for the blue team. The Harlow result was disappointing in that sense. It's the sort of blue collar seat they need to win back. |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 11, 2024 11:48:25 GMT
That's true, and unlike in Southampton and Ealing it matters in terms of the parliamentary seat. along with Lewes, and Ealing Central. North East Derbyshire, however, is a must win for them now. The Clay Cross result was important for the blue team. It's one of those that has a fairly high ceiling, and could come back if the government really clobber the home counties and they feel a need to vote C. The kind of seat I would expect to win if we get a majority. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 11:53:46 GMT
Although the Tories don't need Esher & Walton for a majority, along with Lewes, and Ealing Central. North East Derbyshire, however, is a must win for them now. The Clay Cross result was important for the blue team. It's one of those that has a fairly high ceiling, and could come back if the government really clobber the home counties and they feel a need to vote C. The kind of seat I would expect to win if we get a majority. Yes if Labour has fairly anti-investment strategies. But it's a big majority there. Whereas North East Derbyshire is about the same as Labour's lead in the 2015 GE. |
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Post by batman on Oct 11, 2024 12:27:24 GMT
Stonkingly good against Labour. When against the Lib Dems not nearly as good. generally yes but not in Harlow or South Acton (although the latter was never going to be a Tory win) |
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Post by kitesurfer on Oct 11, 2024 13:00:57 GMT
Although the Tories don't need Esher & Walton for a majority, along with Lewes, and Ealing Central. North East Derbyshire, however, is a must win for them now. The Clay Cross result was important for the blue team. It's one of those that has a fairly high ceiling, and could come back if the government really clobber the home counties and they feel a need to vote C. The kind of seat I would expect to win if we get a majority. This seat is so incredibly wealthy that people really are going to hate the current government with its raids on capital gains tax and inheritance tax as well as VAT on private schools. One of the reasons that the residents groups have done well in the past is immense opposition to building on the green belt. Labour have lost their deposit here in the past and I think this seat is a candidate for Labour getting their lowest vote share in the whole country at the next election. You would therefore think that the best way to eject Labour is to vote Tory. However, it is in such a big wedge of Lib Dem seats - probably the safest in the country. They can feasibly flood activists to the area to defend the seat. I was surprised by the size of the Lib Dem majority in July and Monica Harding has an opportunity to build up a big personal vote. If Jenrick/Badenoch are as inept as people suggest and the next election is seen as a foregone conclusion for Labour then I don’t see Monica Harding having a problem holding on. However, if people think the next election is going to be really close and that every seat matters, I can see the Tories winning here - particularly if the Lib Dems say that they will never support the Tories in a hung parliament. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 11, 2024 13:03:35 GMT
North Lanarkshire, Mossend and Holytown Lab 616 SNP 586 RefUK 263 Con 127 LD 83 UKIP 11 Lab elected after transfers Transfers: Stage 2 (UKIP eliminated): 5 NT Reform 5 (268) LD 1 (84) Con 0 SNP 0 Lab 0 Stage 3: (LD eliminated): 31 NT (36) Lab 24 (640) Con 14 (141) Ref 8 (276) SNP 7 (593) Stage 4 (Con excluded): 61 NT (97) Ref 45 (321) Lab 28 (668) SNP 7 (600) Stage 4 (Reform Excluded): 234 NT (331) Lab 54 (722) SNP 33 (633) Overall very low transfer rates. Did they not do the for-psephologists'-benefit-only postfinal stage or did you omit it? Neither of these counts technically reached quota. |
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Post by gibbon on Oct 11, 2024 13:37:27 GMT
The Green party in Leeds means the return of David Blackburn who held the seat from 1998 until May 2024. It will be interesting how he works with some of the new Green Party councillors who were elected this May. When he was Leader of the Green Party in 2004 he was part the Rainbow Alliance of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party that ran the Leeds City Council until 2007. When the Green Party left that coalition the Morley Independents took the Green Party's place. The Reform vote is quite high and I can see Reform making gains in some of yhe more marhinal wards that the Green Party would also target. Whether Reform are likely to challenge the Conservatives in some of the traditional areas I coudl see them challenging both Labour, the SDP and the Conservatives in wards such as Temple Newsam, Bramley, Pudsey, Middleton Park, Kippax and Adel.
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Post by stodge on Oct 11, 2024 14:14:38 GMT
Winning Hersham Village back hardly signifies the Conservative Party is set to sweep back to power. Even in the 2022-24 period, it was a wafer-thin marginal - 45-44, 46-44 and 49-44. Yesterday's by-election also saw another big fall in turnout - 1859 votes cast compared to 2737 in May. It's exactly as happened after 1997 - big falls in local by-election turnout with the Conservatives suffering least due to a more motivated vote and a traditional core which will vote come what may. Non-Conservative voters less inclined to vote with the Conservatives out of office - the LDs dropped 600 votes from May but the Conservatives also lost 190. Addlestone South was held by the Conservatives on an 18% turnout (down from 27% in May). As to what all this will mean for the County Council round next May, who knows? You'd think very low turnout which should help the Conservatives defending but the NEV had the Conservatives on 36% in 2021 and they are nowhere near that now so losses seem inevitable - enough to turn Surrey to NOC? It's still a possibility but we're seven months (an eternity basically) from the poll. Neither Jenrick nor Badenoch are a good fit for Surrey, in my view. Tom Tugendhat on the other hand... There's some down ballot lag there. Local Tories will hold up better. As opposed to bullshit 'local Conservatives' - a cynical ploy for the ages. Surrey Conservatives are fairly moderate from what I can tell. Shame we can't get county-level returns for leadership elections. The Conservatives had a poor result in Surrey in 2021, with a net loss of 14 seats inbcluding those of the Deputy Leader and two Cabinet members. In terms of vote share, the Conservatives won 42.2%, the Liberal Democrats 24.7%, Independents & Residents 14.6%, Labour 11.3% and Greens 5.9%. In July, thanks to minionofmidas we know: For the 11 constituencies wholly under Surrey County Council LD 35.3 Con 33.2 Lab 14.0 Ref 12.3 G 4.4 Including Farnham & Bordon (64% in Surrey) LD 35.2 Con 33.4 Lab 14.0 Ref 12.2 G 4.4 Also including Windsor (15% in Surrey, why would you though) LD 34.2 Con 33.6 Lab 14.6 Ref 12.1 G 4.5 |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2024 15:30:35 GMT
GWBWI Stonkingly good week for the Cons, and not as poor for Labour as you might expect. The former is because of a string of good solid wins, with a scattering of poor results; the latter because a fair few decent holds generated enough positives to almost balance out a few torrid spots. Con +310 LDm +88 Grn +71 PC +30 Lab -19 SNP -35 In terms of individual results, Cons best were Fylde +63, NE Derbyshire +63, Worthing +54, Pembrokeshire +51, Elmbridge (WSGH) +51. Worst Ealing (HH) -33, Lewes -19. Labour best N Lanarkshire (F) +45, Harlow +40, N Lanarkshire (M&H) +36; worst NE Derbyshire -57, Worthing -50, Southampton -43, Leeds -36. Heene would have been a lot worse had it not been a Con seat just two cycles ago - although older cycles are weighted down, that still reduces the impact of losing it (back) to the Cons. With the exception of Lewes, there does seem to be a reasonable correlation between good Con results where there's no Reform and poor ones where there is one. |
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Post by robert1 on Oct 11, 2024 16:06:52 GMT
For some of us of a certain age, the thought of the Conservatives winning 50% in any election in Clay Cross and gaining 2 Town council seats is somewhat surreal
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