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Post by kitesurfer on Oct 11, 2024 9:35:56 GMT
✅ Labour HOLD South Acton (Ealing) council by-election result: LAB: 48.5% (-1.2) CON: 14.6% (-0.9) GRN: 13.8% (-6.1) LDEM: 10.0% (-1.8) REF: 7.6% (+7.6) ✅ Labour HOLD Northolt Mandeville (Ealing) council by-election result: LAB: 44.7% (-10.3) CON: 29.0% (+2.5) REF: 10.8% (+10.8) GRN: 7.9% (-3.9) LDEM: 4.5% (-2.2) +/- 2022 Again, for some reason BE have top 5 only Tories doing better in Ealing North. That happened in the GE too. It's possibly Acton's proximity to Central. Ealing North was more swingy, historically. Acton has more fixed voting blocs. 2026 will be interesting in Ealing. But that Northolt result was decent. Conservatives plus Reform got 40% combined. For Northolt, that's not bad, really. It's generally a Labour stronghold nowadays. Ealing North in 2024: Conservative 18.8%. Ealing C&A in 2024: Conservative 17.5%. Northolt Mandeville used to be a good ward for the Tories. They won in 2002 and 2006, but they have done really badly in subsequent years. I had put it down to the area becoming less white. The Tory decline in Ealing Central and Acton was very dramatic in 2017. Brexit really went down like a cup of cold sick there. There are a lot of public sector workers and BBC employees and I think this has cemented the anti-Tory vote. Conversely, in Ealing North, there was a ward that voted for Brexit. There are also many fewer graduates. The big Hindu vote isn’t such a problem for the Tories either now. In July, a lot of the Muslim vote went away from Labour to the workers party. Although Labour still win everywhere, I sense that Stephen Pound’s personal vote exaggerated Labour’s dominance. Although he is very local, James Murray comes across as a bit of a wet drip in comparison and a Labour robot. Should the government get unpopular, his proximity to Reeves could make this seat surprisingly close - just look at neighbouring Brent West. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 9:39:09 GMT
Tories doing better in Ealing North. That happened in the GE too. It's possibly Acton's proximity to Central. Ealing North was more swingy, historically. Acton has more fixed voting blocs. 2026 will be interesting in Ealing. But that Northolt result was decent. Conservatives plus Reform got 40% combined. For Northolt, that's not bad, really. It's generally a Labour stronghold nowadays. Ealing North in 2024: Conservative 18.8%. Ealing C&A in 2024: Conservative 17.5%. Northolt Mandeville used to be a good ward for the Tories. They won in 2002 and 2006, but they have done really badly in subsequent years. I had put it down to the area becoming less white. The Tory decline in Ealing Central and Acton was very dramatic in 2017. Brexit really went down like a cup of cold sick there. There are a lot of public sector workers and BBC employees and I think this has cemented the anti-Tory vote. Conversely, in Ealing North, there was a ward that voted for Brexit. There are also many fewer graduates. The big Hindu vote isn’t such a problem for the Tories either now. In July, a lot of the Muslim vote went away from Labour to the workers party. Although Labour still win everywhere, I sense that Stephen Pound’s personal vote exaggerated Labour’s dominance. Although he is very local, James Murray comes across as a bit of a wet drip in comparison and a Labour robot. Should the government get unpopular, his proximity to Reeves could make this seat surprisingly close - just look at neighbouring Brent West. North only swung 4%. in July. Not quite Brent West, but still. It doesn't look completely gone forever. It used to be very volatile. Biggest pro-Tory swing back in 1987. Powered the Tories to victory (2006). It's more working-class as you say. It had the highest Polish percentage. Have many returned due to Brexit? |
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Post by stodge on Oct 11, 2024 9:39:15 GMT
My Surrey friend tipped me off. I thought Hersham would certainly fall. Weybridge St George's is a shock. I wonder if concerns about the budget motivated the wealthy denizens of that ward to vote Tory. Maybe the independents have peaked in the area, alongside the generally anti-Tory sentiment in Elmbridge. They lost control back in 2016. Surrey going NOC next year unlikely. The Tories are just too strong. But the Lib Dems could still do it. These wards could do with more effort for the county council elections Winning Hersham Village back hardly signifies the Conservative Party is set to sweep back to power. Even in the 2022-24 period, it was a wafer-thin marginal - 45-44, 46-44 and 49-44. Yesterday's by-election also saw another big fall in turnout - 1859 votes cast compared to 2737 in May. It's exactly as happened after 1997 - big falls in local by-election turnout with the Conservatives suffering least due to a more motivated vote and a traditional core which will vote come what may. Non-Conservative voters less inclined to vote with the Conservatives out of office - the LDs dropped 600 votes from May but the Conservatives also lost 190. Addlestone South was held by the Conservatives on an 18% turnout (down from 27% in May). As to what all this will mean for the County Council round next May, who knows? You'd think very low turnout which should help the Conservatives defending but the NEV had the Conservatives on 36% in 2021 and they are nowhere near that now so losses seem inevitable - enough to turn Surrey to NOC? It's still a possibility but we're seven months (an eternity basically) from the poll. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 9:40:21 GMT
My Surrey friend tipped me off. I thought Hersham would certainly fall. Weybridge St George's is a shock. I wonder if concerns about the budget motivated the wealthy denizens of that ward to vote Tory. Maybe the independents have peaked in the area, alongside the generally anti-Tory sentiment in Elmbridge. They lost control back in 2016. Surrey going NOC next year unlikely. The Tories are just too strong. But the Lib Dems could still do it. These wards could do with more effort for the county council elections Winning Hersham Village back hardly signifies the Conservative Party is set to sweep back to power. Even in the 2022-24 period, it was a wafer-thin marginal - 45-44, 46-44 and 49-44. Yesterday's by-election also saw another big fall in turnout - 1859 votes cast compared to 2737 in May. It's exactly as happened after 1997 - big falls in local by-election turnout with the Conservatives suffering least due to a more motivated vote and a traditional core which will vote come what may. Non-Conservative voters less inclined to vote with the Conservatives out of office - the LDs dropped 600 votes from May but the Conservatives also lost 190. Addlestone South was held by the Conservatives on an 18% turnout (down from 27% in May). As to what all this will mean for the County Council round next May, who knows? You'd think very low turnout which should help the Conservatives defending but the NEV had the Conservatives on 36% in 2021 and they are nowhere near that now so losses seem inevitable - enough to turn Surrey to NOC? It's still a possibility but we're seven months (an eternity basically) from the poll. Neither Jenrick nor Badenoch are a good fit for Surrey, in my view. Tom Tugendhat on the other hand... There's some down ballot lag there. Local Tories will hold up better. As opposed to bullshit 'local Conservatives' - a cynical ploy for the ages. Surrey Conservatives are fairly moderate from what I can tell. Shame we can't get county-level returns for leadership elections. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2024 10:05:00 GMT
Is it true that basically the best Tory performances yesterday were in places with older electorates? This would fit in with them weaponising the WFA as a campaigning issue.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2024 10:06:36 GMT
20.4% turnout in Burton & Broughton.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2024 10:08:15 GMT
Heene ward in Worthing is a very contrasting place. Some parts are typical neo-Brightonian terraces and multi-occ larger houses. But there are a LOT of care homes, more than in other wards in Worthing. The Tories did their work and got their vote out better than we did : I’m sure a lot of their vote was postal. We need to get our act together on that score or before too long council control could be in jeopardy. Other results are quite a mixed bag, some good Tory performances and some where they are at best flatlining, and some results much better for Labour too than others. It's a really poor result for Labour. Marine could be accepted, because it's less friendly territory at base, but Heene is a very bad indicator for several others. Care home turnout is minimal and has been for years. There were LibDems who used to use this as a reason for us losing in Heen and Central, but when you look at the voting, it's not. Though had there been a Reform candidate as at Marine recently, Labour would probably have held it. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 10:08:26 GMT
Is it true that basically the best Tory performances yesterday were in places with older electorates? This would fit in with them weaponising the WFA as a campaigning issue. It makes sense - naked political opportunism. I wasn't aware Heene was elderly. I guess it still is that. It's surely changing quite quickly now. It reminds of the contention that most of Nick Boles's votes in Hove in 2005 came from pensioners. Relying on the grey vote has been the Tory strategy forever. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 10:09:00 GMT
Is it true that basically the best Tory performances yesterday were in places with older electorates? This would fit in with them weaponising the WFA as a campaigning issue. I would say the best Tory results yesterday were Clay Cross, Worthing, Runnymede and Hersham. Their worst were Wivelsfield, Harlow and Hanger Hill. I would say the best Lab result was Harlow and their worst were Clay Cross, Worthing and Southampton. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 10:10:54 GMT
Suffolk, Hoxne and Eye is a Con hold by 4 votes
Con 895
Green 891
LD 102
Lab 89
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2024 10:11:17 GMT
Is it true that basically the best Tory performances yesterday were in places with older electorates? This would fit in with them weaponising the WFA as a campaigning issue. I would say the best Tory results yesterday were Clay Cross, Worthing, Runnymede and Hersham. Their worst were Wivelsfield, Harlow and Hanger Hill. I would say the best Lab result was Harlow and their worst were Clay Cross, Worthing and Southampton. The first two good Tory results likely fit the older voter demographic I mentioned, not sure about the Surrey ones though it is possible there too. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 10:15:59 GMT
Clay Cross was the most obvious likely gain. No Reform candidate there helped hugely.
Labour's 2024 majority in NE Derbyshire was identical to 2015 in percentage terms.
That seat is on a long-term rightward trend - it's a commuter area for Sheffield.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2024 10:18:06 GMT
And its surprising the Harlow result hasn't been commented on more, that really is lacklustre for the Tories.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2024 10:18:37 GMT
Suffolk, Hoxne and Eye is a Con hold by 4 votes Con 895 Green 891 LD 102 Lab 89 In vote share terms that's virtually no change at all from the districts last May. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 11, 2024 10:27:40 GMT
Suffolk, Hoxne and Eye is a Con hold by 4 votes Con 895 Green 891 LD 102 Lab 89 In vote share terms that's virtually no change at all from the districts last May. Was this in Waveney Valley/Mid Suffolk or another Suffolk seat? Decent result for Greens in another Suffolk seat, but the Tories should have been drowned out if they were up against the Greens canvassing data from the General Election. If it is Waveney Valley the local Tories are probably ecstatic with dodging what must have seemed like a nailed on loss. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 10:29:07 GMT
Suffolk, Hoxne and Eye is a Con hold by 4 votes Con 895 Green 891 LD 102 Lab 89 Greens had their Eye on that. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 10:30:00 GMT
In vote share terms that's virtually no change at all from the districts last May. Was this in Waveney Valley/Mid Suffolk or another Suffolk seat? Decent result for Greens in another Suffolk seat, but the Tories should have been drowned out if they were up against the Greens canvassing data from the General Election. If it is Waveney Valley the local Tories are probably ecstatic with dodging what must have seemed like a nailed on loss. Yes, it’s in Waveney Valley. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 10:34:05 GMT
North Northamptonshire, Burton and Broughton
Con 939
Green 489
LD 337
Lab 260
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 10:35:09 GMT
Final scores for the mammoth week
Con 9 (+4)
Lab 7 (-4)
LD 2 (+1)
Green 2 (+1)
PC 1 (+1)
Ind 0 (-3)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2024 10:35:38 GMT
In vote share terms that's virtually no change at all from the districts last May. Was this in Waveney Valley/Mid Suffolk or another Suffolk seat? Decent result for Greens in another Suffolk seat, but the Tories should have been drowned out if they were up against the Greens canvassing data from the General Election. If it is Waveney Valley the local Tories are probably ecstatic with dodging what must have seemed like a nailed on loss. Although the recent Mid Suffolk by-election, albeit not in Waveney Valley was a Con gain with a clear swing in their favour since last May, so nailed on loss is I think over-stating it. |
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