Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 11, 2024 0:03:40 GMT
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Hanger Hill (Ealing) council by-election result: LDEM: 52.3% (+19.3) CON: 25.7% (-5.1) LAB: 10.0% (-13.3) GRN: 7.7% (-5.1) REF: 3.1% (+3.1) +/- 2022 It's a gain. |
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clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 35
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Post by clive on Oct 11, 2024 0:06:54 GMT
Hanger Hill, LB Ealing Green - 245 Local Conservatives - 814 Labour - 315 Lib Dem - 1655 Reform - 98 Workers P - 35 Lots of tactical voting by Labour supporters with Tories losing support to Reform. |
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clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 35
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Post by clive on Oct 11, 2024 0:08:50 GMT
The Reform vote was 98, hardly significant, all of those votes could have gone to the Conservatives and it would not have affected the outcome.
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Post by kevinf on Oct 11, 2024 3:56:37 GMT
That’s a bit of a shock - not so much that Labour lost. In the days when the Lib Dems were the largest party on the council, they never won there. In fact, I don’t think they ever finished better than third in the past. Surprised too that the Tory vote wasn’t higher. Locals said the LDs worked it really hard. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 5:12:04 GMT
I thought Tories would win Heene. Their base just turns out more. Still a fair few pensioners there. Another impressive gain for Worthing Conservatives. 2025 will certainly be interesting there. There are several county council seats. The Tories lost several in 2021.That was a fairly portentous result.
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Post by kitesurfer on Oct 11, 2024 5:42:49 GMT
The Reform vote was 98, hardly significant, all of those votes could have gone to the Conservatives and it would not have affected the outcome. I didn’t say it did decisively affect the outcome just that they lost support to them. The increase in Lib Dem vote was almost entirely from Labour and the Greens losing votes. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 6:06:19 GMT
✅ Labour HOLD South Acton (Ealing) council by-election result: LAB: 48.5% (-1.2) CON: 14.6% (-0.9) GRN: 13.8% (-6.1) LDEM: 10.0% (-1.8) REF: 7.6% (+7.6) ✅ Labour HOLD Northolt Mandeville (Ealing) council by-election result: LAB: 44.7% (-10.3) CON: 29.0% (+2.5) REF: 10.8% (+10.8) GRN: 7.9% (-3.9) LDEM: 4.5% (-2.2) +/- 2022 Again, for some reason BE have top 5 only Tories doing better in Ealing North. That happened in the GE too. It's possibly Acton's proximity to Central. Ealing North was more swingy, historically. Acton has more fixed voting blocs. 2026 will be interesting in Ealing. But that Northolt result was decent. Conservatives plus Reform got 40% combined. For Northolt, that's not bad, really. It's generally a Labour stronghold nowadays. Ealing North in 2024: Conservative 18.8%. Ealing C&A in 2024: Conservative 17.5%. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 11, 2024 7:03:21 GMT
Badenoch was knocking up in Hanger Hill, I believe. She had an instant effect!
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 11, 2024 7:04:06 GMT
Heene ward in Worthing is a very contrasting place. Some parts are typical neo-Brightonian terraces and multi-occ larger houses. But there are a LOT of care homes, more than in other wards in Worthing. The Tories did their work and got their vote out better than we did : I’m sure a lot of their vote was postal. We need to get our act together on that score or before too long council control could be in jeopardy. Other results are quite a mixed bag, some good Tory performances and some where they are at best flatlining, and some results much better for Labour too than others. It's a really poor result for Labour. Marine could be accepted, because it's less friendly territory at base, but Heene is a very bad indicator for several others. Care home turnout is minimal and has been for years. There were LibDems who used to use this as a reason for us losing in Heen and Central, but when you look at the voting, it's not. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 7:20:19 GMT
Heene ward in Worthing is a very contrasting place. Some parts are typical neo-Brightonian terraces and multi-occ larger houses. But there are a LOT of care homes, more than in other wards in Worthing. The Tories did their work and got their vote out better than we did : I’m sure a lot of their vote was postal. We need to get our act together on that score or before too long council control could be in jeopardy. Other results are quite a mixed bag, some good Tory performances and some where they are at best flatlining, and some results much better for Labour too than others. It's a really poor result for Labour. Marine could be accepted, because it's less friendly territory at base, but Heene is a very bad indicator for several others. Care home turnout is minimal and has been for years. There were LibDems who used to use this as a reason for us losing in Heen and Central, but when you look at the voting, it's not. Heene is Labour's strongest ward, IIRC. This is very bad news indeed. Still, they have a big majority. It was mostly the turnout changes. But a win is a win. |
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Post by batman on Oct 11, 2024 7:57:21 GMT
That’s a bit of a shock - not so much that Labour lost. In the days when the Lib Dems were the largest party on the council, they never won there. In fact, I don’t think they ever finished better than third in the past. Surprised too that the Tory vote wasn’t higher. Locals said the LDs worked it really hard. and clearly from some of the predictions some people were aware of that. I know Shirley a bit as my sister lived there for a time, and it did strike me as an area with possible LD potential |
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Post by batman on Oct 11, 2024 8:02:43 GMT
Heene is one of Labour’s strongest wards but it’s roughly on a par with Broadwater, and Central is the strongest.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2024 8:08:40 GMT
That’s a bit of a shock - not so much that Labour lost. In the days when the Lib Dems were the largest party on the council, they never won there. In fact, I don’t think they ever finished better than third in the past. Surprised too that the Tory vote wasn’t higher. The combination of an unpopular council administration followed immediately after by the coalition, and then several years of putting all their efforts into Portswood which was turning out to be unwinnable (for a few reasons), meant that the Southampton Lib Dems were left basically starting from scratch but with a solid campaigner base. I would argue that the places they have won since are more in line with a typical Lib Dem ward demographic than being based on historical success. In all three wards where they now have councillors, results prior to them winning demonstrate that they were already putting in effort, even though they went from 3rd to 1st here and in Swaythling.
An additional point is that this by-election would have been foreseen years in advance as Satvir Kaur had been the Test PPC for some time. Smart Lib Dem campaigners in a city where target seats aren't obvious would have taken this into account and I suspect this is exactly what happened, whereas for the Southampton Tories campaigning resources are spread more thinly and they've have increasingly fallen out of favour in this ward.
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 8:14:51 GMT
My Surrey friend tipped me off. I thought Hersham would certainly fall. Weybridge St George's is a shock. I wonder if concerns about the budget motivated the wealthy denizens of that ward to vote Tory. Maybe the independents have peaked in the area, alongside the generally anti-Tory sentiment in Elmbridge. They lost control back in 2016. Surrey going NOC next year unlikely. The Tories are just too strong. But the Lib Dems could still do it. These wards could do with more effort for the county council elections
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 8:23:22 GMT
Don’t think we have had the actual numbers from Coventry, St Michaels
Lab 899
TUSC 327
WP 212
Con 145
Green 96
CovCit 94
LD 57
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 8:24:42 GMT
Don’t think we have had the actual numbers from Coventry, St Michaels Lab 899 TUSC 327 WP 212 Con 145 Green 96 CovCit 94 LD 57 Over 700 votes for anti-establishment parties. They need to get their act together! |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2024 9:08:06 GMT
Lewes, Wivelsfield numbers
Green 315
LD 216
Con 213
Turnout 32.7%
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Post by sanders on Oct 11, 2024 9:11:01 GMT
Lewes, Wivelsfield numbers Green 315 LD 216 Con 213 Turnout 32.7% Lewes District Council's beautiful map continues. |
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Post by batman on Oct 11, 2024 9:13:02 GMT
That's probably the Tories' worst performance of the night, with the possible exception of Hanger Hill. Wivelsfield was for years, at least by Lewes district standards, a Tory stronghold with little of the demographic which made them much weaker in other towns further south including Lewes itself. Coming third there is really poor, although if there had been a Labour candidate they probably would have at least beaten the LDs.
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 11, 2024 9:34:05 GMT
Don’t think we have had the actual numbers from Coventry, St Michaels Lab 899 TUSC 327 WP 212 Con 145 Green 96 CovCit 94 LD 57 Turnout was somewhere in the region of 13%. |
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