relique
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Post by relique on Jun 11, 2024 6:21:39 GMT
All left wing parties have announced a New Front Populaire tonight with single candidate in every constituency. Later in the week if it's not available already I'll try and find an analysis based on the constituencies Any difference between the new alliance and NUPES? There's a few more political parties (which are closer to me) who joined (they tried to form the Fédération de la Gauche Républicaine last time). They are weakened by euro elections as their only parlementarian was Emmanuel Maurel and he was beaten with the communists. This all came about as Glucksmann tried to impose his leadership but failed miserably (Olivier Faure, boss of PS was quick to take back control, fortunately), asking for Laurent Berger (former head of CFDT union) to be the left's PM candidate. The unions (CGT, CFDT, UNSA, FSU and Solidaires) have called for protests this week end and so have the left. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 11, 2024 6:23:37 GMT
Any difference between the new alliance and NUPES? There's a few more political parties (which are closer to me) who joined (they tried to form the Fédération de la Gauche Républicaine last time). They are weakened by euro elections as their only parlementarian was Emmanuel Maurel and he was beaten with the communists. This all came about as Glucksmann tried to impose his leadership but failed miserably (Olivier Faure, boss of PS was quick to take back control, fortunately), asking for Laurent Berger (former head of CFDT union) to be the left's PM candidate. The unions (CGT, CFDT, UNSA, FSU and Solidaires) have called for protests this week end and so have the left. Protests over what? Btw, what’s the likelihood of an alliance on the right? |
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relique
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Post by relique on Jun 11, 2024 6:54:48 GMT
There's a few more political parties (which are closer to me) who joined (they tried to form the Fédération de la Gauche Républicaine last time). They are weakened by euro elections as their only parlementarian was Emmanuel Maurel and he was beaten with the communists. This all came about as Glucksmann tried to impose his leadership but failed miserably (Olivier Faure, boss of PS was quick to take back control, fortunately), asking for Laurent Berger (former head of CFDT union) to be the left's PM candidate. The unions (CGT, CFDT, UNSA, FSU and Solidaires) have called for protests this week end and so have the left. Protests over what? Btw, what’s the likelihood of an alliance on the right? Against the far-right in power would be my guess. Marion Maréchal met with her cousin-in-law and her aunt yesterday. There were already stories of schism between her and Zemmour during the campaign. She will probably reunite the happy family but I don't think Zemmour will be the wedding gift. I'm really not sure that any incumbent LR would be ready to get an endorsement by RN. Some LR might join but as Morano has been duly elected to euro-parliament, I don't think they will be high profile. There might be more probability of some other incumbents getting with Macron but I don't think that's the right career move: they survived 2022 so should be alright, and there's not much chance of a cabinet position next. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2024 8:14:39 GMT
I think there was a Saigon Sally, but there was definitely a Hanoi Hannah. I only know Hanoi Jane. Oh! How is she these days? Must be quite old now? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2024 8:18:23 GMT
No! That is venerable and distinguished Auto-Correct! I must have put a typo in my original Vietnam? Autocorrect is the sperm of the devil. Turn it off. No. A good one is very useful for spelling and style. Like VAR and SatNat it can be a very useful tool but has capacity for error. Use it, check it and do not slavishly accept all it does. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 11, 2024 9:14:11 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 11, 2024 10:39:50 GMT
Protests over what? Btw, what’s the likelihood of an alliance on the right? Against the far-right in power would be my guess. Marion Maréchal met with her cousin-in-law and her aunt yesterday. There were already stories of schism between her and Zemmour during the campaign. She will probably reunite the happy family but I don't think Zemmour will be the wedding gift. I'm really not sure that any incumbent LR would be ready to get an endorsement by RN. Some LR might join but as Morano has been duly elected to euro-parliament, I don't think they will be high profile. There might be more probability of some other incumbents getting with Macron but I don't think that's the right career move: they survived 2022 so should be alright, and there's not much chance of a cabinet position next. She has now been on CNews (surely a very deliberate choice) to call for a coalition and for Zemmour to fall in line. Edit: and she is meeting Dupont-Aignan today. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 11, 2024 10:46:45 GMT
Oh! How is she these days? Must be quite old now? 87! Here's one of those quick questionaires she did for the Evening Standard only three days ago, and in which she names Winston Churchill as her favourite Londoner.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 11, 2024 11:31:30 GMT
More fun. Eric Ciotti is trying to get LR into an alliance with RN. But the senators are all refusing, and Marleix (the leader of their deputies) is livid and has demanded that Ciotti resign.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 11, 2024 11:47:13 GMT
What happens if a variety of left leaning candidates get in the top two against FN candidates rather than Republicans or Macronists? Would the moderate right (including the Macronsites) split as reliably for the left against the FN as the left does for them? And even if they did, what would happen if Macron was faced with an Assembly where the hardish left had a majority or clear plurality? And the FN would still be untarnished into the Presidential poll if they got the highest share of the vote but came third, fourth or even a poor second due to some perceived "stitch up" of the rest of the French political world against them. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2024 12:18:02 GMT
There was an (in)famous French election ages ago where the Communists came a good second in votes but still won very few seats due to being so toxic to all other voters?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 11, 2024 12:23:39 GMT
There was an (in)famous French election ages ago where the Communists came a good second in votes but still won very few seats due to being so toxic to all other voters? 1958 maybe? You channelling Graham now? |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 11, 2024 12:24:45 GMT
What happens if a variety of left leaning candidates get in the top two against FN candidates rather than Republicans or Macronists? Would the moderate right (including the Macronsites) split as reliably for the left against the FN as the left does for them? And even if they did, what would happen if Macron was faced with an Assembly where the hardish left had a majority or clear plurality? And the FN would still be untarnished into the Presidential poll if they got the highest share of the vote but came third, fourth or even a poor second due to some perceived "stitch up" of the rest of the French political world against them. There were plenty of constituencies where it happened, and they definitely didn’t split heavily in favour NUPES… |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2024 12:27:07 GMT
Well I genuinely couldn't remember exactly when though I knew it had happened, but a quick look suggests you are correct Pete WhiteheadSuppose the point of mentioning it is that it wouldn't be totally unprecedented if similar happened to the RN now, and one still doubts it would be *that* extreme. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 11, 2024 12:36:18 GMT
There was an (in)famous French election ages ago where the Communists came a good second in votes but still won very few seats due to being so toxic to all other voters? 1958 maybe? You channelling Graham now? No, the PCF didn't stand in Carshalton.  |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 11, 2024 12:37:15 GMT
More fun. Eric Ciotti is trying to get LR into an alliance with RN. But the senators are all refusing, and Marleix (the leader of their deputies) is livid and has demanded that Ciotti resign. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jun 11, 2024 12:47:05 GMT
What happens if a variety of left leaning candidates get in the top two against FN candidates rather than Republicans or Macronists? Would the moderate right (including the Macronsites) split as reliably for the left against the FN as the left does for them? And even if they did, what would happen if Macron was faced with an Assembly where the hardish left had a majority or clear plurality? And the FN would still be untarnished into the Presidential poll if they got the highest share of the vote but came third, fourth or even a poor second due to some perceived "stitch up" of the rest of the French political world against them. There were plenty of constituencies where it happened, and they definitely didn’t split heavily in favour NUPES… According to post-elections polls in 2022, in the case of RN vs NUPES duels, 48% of voters of Macron's party didn't vote, 34% voted NUPES, 18% voted RN At the same time, in Ensemble - RN duels, 45% of NUPEs 1st round voters didn't vote, 31% voted for Ensemble and 24% for RN LR votets in NUPES-RN duels: 37% abstained, 36% NUPES, 27% RN Edit: to add the link www.ouest-france.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-2022-nupes-rn-ensemble-comment-s-est-effectue-le-report-des-voix-au-second-tour-47e09e78-f09b-11ec-a1f9-96fad4cda185 |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 11, 2024 12:53:44 GMT
More fun. Eric Ciotti is trying to get LR into an alliance with RN. But the senators are all refusing, and Marleix (the leader of their deputies) is livid and has demanded that Ciotti resign. Reckless Eric! *
* for those who remember Mr Goulden.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 11, 2024 12:57:07 GMT
There were plenty of constituencies where it happened, and they definitely didn’t split heavily in favour NUPES… According to post-elections polls in 2022, in the case of RN vs NUPES duels, 48% of voters of Macron's party didn't vote, 34% voted NUPES, 18% voted RN At the same time, in Ensemble - RN duels, 45% of NUPEs 1st round voters didn't vote, 31% voted for Ensemble and 24% for RN LR votets in NUPES-RN duels: 37% abstained, 36% NUPES, 27% RN I’m very surprised by the RN vs Ensemble numbers, and somewhat surprised by the LR numbers in NUPES vs RN. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 11, 2024 12:58:25 GMT
More fun. Eric Ciotti is trying to get LR into an alliance with RN. But the senators are all refusing, and Marleix (the leader of their deputies) is livid and has demanded that Ciotti resign. Possible defection? |
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